Something has to give in the NL Central
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The Brewers, of course, add Sabathia to a rotation that's already fronted by All-Star Ben Sheets. And don't let Sabathia's "good not great" ERA of 3.83 fool you — he's been mostly unhittable since April.
There's also the fact that Sabathia's addition improves a Brewers rotation that ranked a middling eighth in the NL in starters' ERA. He's a difference-maker — that much we know — but how much of one?
One way to think about it is that Sabathia immediately gives the Brewers what is perhaps the top one-two punch in the game. Moreover, by the September stretch drive it's possible they'll boast a rotation of Sabathia, Sheets, Manny Parra, Yovani Gallardo, and Jeff Suppan. If Gallardo and Suppan are healthy and pitching up to their skills, then that's the best rotation in baseball today.
But there's more to this than the Milwaukee perspective. Specifically, what does the Brewers' trade for Sabathia mean for the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals, the other two power teams in what's become the NL's toughest division?
At present, the Cubs lead the NL Central by 3 1/2 games over the Brewers and Cardinals. Speaking of the Brewers and Cardinals, they're both tied for the NL wild-card lead. So Milwaukee, even before adding Sabathia, was in a position of relative strength. But they won't enjoy an easy go of it. After all, the best three teams in the NL Central are also the top three teams in the National League.
The overwhelming likelihood is that two of the NL's four playoff berths are going to come from the Central, and that means one team among the Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers isn't going to make it. Let's probe a little more deeply into which team that might be ...
According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have a 94.8 percent chance of making the postseason, while the Brewers and Cardinals have, respectively, a 59 percent chance and a 25.4 percent chance of getting there.
Obviously, Baseball Prospectus sees the Cubs as mortal locks for the postseason, and they see the Cards as having a much worse chance than the Brewers. Now let's take a look at another Prospectus tool called "Third-Order Standings." Third-Order Standings lays out what the standings should be once you correct for runs scored and runs allowed at the component level and strength of schedule. Anyhow, according to Third-Order Standings, the Cubs should lead the division over the Brewers by 6.5 games, and the Cardinals should be 7.5 games behind the Cubs.
The bad news for the Cubs and Cardinals, of course, is that none of those indicators accounts for the fact that the Brewers now have Sabathia in the fold. By acquiring Sabathia at the beginning of the month as opposed to much closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, GM Doug Melvin has ensured that his Brewers will get another five or so starts out of their new ace.
What's also worth noting is that the Brewers play a somewhat easier schedule the rest of the way. Specifically, the Cubs' and Cardinals' remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .500, while the Brewers' remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .477. Oh, and the Brewers will also play the Cubs 10 more times, and seven of those games will be in Milwaukee. So they'll enjoy plenty of chances to chip away at Chicago's lead.
As for Cubs, they remain the team to beat in the division. The Brewers' bold trade has closed the gap, certainly, but the prevailing reality is the Cubs' powerhouse offense, solid rotation, strong bullpen, and sound defense make them the NL's best and most balanced team. As well, the Cubs might also be heard from as the deadline approaches (Rich Harden? Brian Roberts?), and they'll have Alfonso Soriano back from the disabled list shortly after the break.
What may ultimately determine the division is whether the Cubs can overcome their 2008 road woes and hold their own during those seven games in Milwaukee. All in all, though, the Cubs still seem like safe bets to win a second straight flag.
As for the Cardinals, conventional wisdom has it that they were already in trouble. They and the Brewers are trending in opposite directions, and that's especially the case now that Milwaukee has pulled off the trade of the year.
Of course, it would be a mistake to dismiss the Cardinals out of hand. They have the best manager and best hitter in baseball, and at some point in the second half they should get back Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. As well, there's the hope that Mark Mulder will somehow rediscover adequacy and that Matt Clement will have something to offer going forward. Mostly, though, they need over-performers like Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Lohse, and Todd Wellemeyer to keep it going.
Statistical realities suggest that's not likely to happen. Sure, St. Louis is capable of making a play at the deadline, but it's not likely that someone of Sabathia's capabilities is going to be on the market. And do they really want to part with Colby Rasmus, which they'd have to do in order to obtain an impact player? Probably not.
In the final analysis, Milwaukee's acquisition of Sabathia means a less comfortable state of affairs for the Cubs and a likely end to the Cardinals' improbable playoff aspirations. The Cubs figure to be there in the end, but the Cardinals will likely have to console themselves with the knowledge that they could've won either of the other two divisions in the NL. For the most part, though, it almost certainly means an end to Milwaukee's 25-year playoff drought in the form of a wild-card berth.
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