Handicapping pennant races after deadline
Ned Colletti: Uh, I dunno, I'm not sure we can shell out for all of Manny's prorated salary.
Epstein: Okay. We'll eat it.
MLB trade deadline
Colletti: How much?
Epstein: The whole thing.
Colletti: That's workable.
Epstein: Neal?
Neal Huntington: We don't want to throw in Grabow.
Epstein: No problem.
Huntington: But you'll still send us Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen?
Epstein: Yep.
Colletti: So, uh, just so we're clear, you're giving up Manny, seven mil cash, an outfield prospect who hit .291 in 103 big league at bats and a 24-year-old who throws 97.
Huntington: And of course the two compensatory picks you'd have gotten had you kept Manny.
Epstein: Uh, yeah.
Colletti: You know I could use a new Range Rover.
Epstein: Done.
Huntington: Man, you must be majorly motivated to get rid of that guy.
Epstein. No, no, we just really, really love Jason Bay. Had our eye on him ever since he hit .247 with a .745 OPS last year.
Or something like that.
The end of the Manny Ramirez Era in Boston saw him land in the real La-La Land after Boston management decided they could no longer abide the metaphorical La-La Land the slugger lives in. The Ramirez deal was the final major move in a pre-deadline trading bonanza that saw three lock Hall of Famers traded in a 24-hour span.
The moves force a reevaluation of the pennant races.
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| Jason Giambi is second on the Yankees in home runs and third in runs batted in. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images) |
AL East
1. New York Yankees
July ended with a report that Exxon Mobil shattered its own record for highest quarterly profit ever by a U.S. company. So the Yankees had company in the rich getting richer.
In the last week of July the Yankees added Pudge Rodriguez, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte all for Kyle Farnsworth and a grab bag of semi-prospects.
When the Yankees make the playoffs for the 14th consecutive season Joe Girardi probably won't get much consideration for Manager of the Year for merely delivering the status quo in the Bronx. But he deserves credit for keeping this ship afloat after 40 percent of his starting rotation (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy) went from bad to worse to injured and then his ace Chien-Ming Wang blew out a foot running the bases.
Having weathered all that, the Yankees now look like the best team in baseball this side of Disneyland. With the acquisition of Rodriguez (seriously, Kyle Farnsworth?), the Yanks now have three MVPs in their everyday lineup. The other two — Alex Rodriguez (1.014 OPS) and Jason Giambi (.907) — are having outstanding seasons. More bad news for the opposition: Robinson Cano and Bobby Abreu are starting to rake.
2. Boston Red Sox (wild card)
The Sox couldn't have endured this much drama if Mary J. Blige was their everyday left-fielder. First, Manny Ramirez slaps Kevin Youkilis in the dugout, then he throws traveling secretary Jack McCormick to the ground, then he calls out ownership, then he begs out of a game against the Yankees.
When he was dealt on Thursday it was at the end of a miserable stretch in which Boston lost five of six to the Yankees and Angels. There is definitely something wrong with the Red Sox (most notably the feeble bats of Jason Varitek and Jacoby Ellsbury), but when it comes to the September pressure cooker all their guys will have already been through it. Not so for the Rays.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have the starting pitching (James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza) to hang with the Yankees and Red Sox, but their offense is thin (10th in the league in runs scored). Carl Crawford just nosed his OPS over .700 with four triples in his last five games, but B.J. Upton has seen his average fall 40 points since June 3 down to .267. The Rays may have taken the green out of their uniforms, but this lineup is still too green to hold off the big boys.
AL Central
1. Chicago White Sox
Seems like just yesterday that Ken Griffey Jr. and Jim Thome were both finishing in the top five in home runs in the American League. Oh wait, that was 1997. (Also the last year Griffey played a postseason game.) The White Sox are gambling that the 38-year-old Junior and the 37-year-old Thome have two and maybe three months of thunder left in their bats. Griffey (15), Thome (20), Carlos Quentin (28), Jermaine Dye (25), a recovering Joe Crede (17) and Nick Swisher (15) give the White Sox six guys with 15-plus homers in their lineup. Throw in some surprisingly consistent starting pitching and the White Sox will welcome Griffey back to the postseason for the first time in over a decade.
2. Minnesota Twins
How are the Twins even in the conversation? Minnesota's rotation of Scott Baker, Livan Hernandez, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Glen Perkins won a total of 24 games in 2007. This year they are 39-27. Here's saying it can't last.
3. Detroit Tigers
One step forward, two steps back. Every time it looks like the Tigers have it figured out, Justin Verlander and Nate Robertson go out and get shelled. Without Armando Galarraga (9-4, 3.36) this team would have been buried a long time ago. But Galarraga was 22-30 in the minors and due for a return to earth. Maybe next year for the $138 million Tigers. (No seriously, Kyle Farnsworth?)
AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels
This one-horse race will take on Secretariat at the '73 Belmont absurdity by the time September rolls around. Not only do the Angels have the biggest lead in all of baseball (12.5 games) and the best record (68-40), but by adding Mark Teixeira they are now the indisputable favorite to win it all.
Consider: While the Angels were hitting .192 and scoring four total runs in a three-game sweep by the Red Sox last October, Casey Kotchman, Kendry Morales, Reggie Willits, Robb Quinlan and Nathan Haynes combined to go 1-for-20 without an RBI. Those at-bats will now all go to Torii Hunter (14 RBI in his last seven games) and Teixeira.
NL East
1. New York Mets
Last year, Tom Glavine started the Mets' must-win on the last day of the season. He got one out and gave up seven runs against the Marlins. If Johan Santana and Oliver Perez continue pitching the way they did in July — combined 2.03 ERA — the Mets won't have to win on the last day of the season to squeak into the playoffs. At some point having David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado is going to matter, right?
2. Philadelphia Phillies
Fourth-place ranking in team ERA in the NL is a mirage. The pitching is still thin behind Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton is not the answer. Odds say they can't mash their way in two years in a row.
3. Florida Marlins
They'll be happy they didn't trade Jeremy Hermida for two months of Manny Ramirez, but there's just not enough pitching here for the Marlins to splash into the postseason. Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez both won this week, but the 4.60 team ERA is good for 14th in the league.
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| Rich Harden is 6-2 with a 2.04 ERA in 2008. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images) |
NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs
In case anyone was deluded into thinking the Brewers were going to pass Chicago after acquiring CC Sabathia, the Cubs just broke off a four-game sweep in Milwaukee capped by Rich Harden's first win in the National League. (In four starts since being acquired from the A's, Harden has allowed only 14 hits and struck out 39 in 24.1 innings.)
With Carlos Zambrano, Harden and Ryan Dempster at the head of the rotation and an offense that leads the NL in runs, OBP and OPS, the Cubs will pull away in the Central.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (wild card)
They won't hang with the Cubs, but with Sabathia and Ben Sheets on the hill and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder at the dish, none of the other wild card contenders can match the Brew Crew's pair of 1-2 punches.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Do Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer and Braden Looper sound like a trio that should be 30-15? No. A hard fade is coming, right on the heels of the InBev purchase of Bud. Rough summer in St. Lou.
NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
I know the seismic shift that signaled the arrival of Manny Ramirez in Los Angeles was supposed to separate the Dodgers from the D-backs once and for all, but Manny will have nine games against Arizona to learn first-hand that the Snakes' starting pitching is what will give them the edge. Brandon Webb (15-4, 3.04) leads the league in wins. Dan Haren (11-5, 2.62) leads in ERA, has a 5.6 K:BB ratio and a 0.96 WHIP. Randy Johnson has not only won his last four starts, he threw seven scoreless innings in his last two. And Doug Davis retired the first 20 batters in his last start.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Manny will have his monster two-month salary drive, but it won't be quite enough. Ramirez may ease some of the pain caused by saboteur Andruw Jones, but the loss of closer Takashi Saito will prove to be too much for a team with little margin of error.
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