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K-Rod's banner season doesn't justify Cy Young hype
Predictably, that's led some to believe he's worthy of serious Cy Young consideration. But he isn't. First, too much emphasis is placed on the save, which is a profoundly flawed and misleading statistic.
In the modern game, closers are most often deployed with an eye toward racking up saves. But one common save situation — working the ninth with a three-run lead — is by no means a high-leverage situation, and the fact that closers are rewarded with a save in those instances is an absolute joke.
Even blowing two-run leads in the ninth is a rarity. As well, the days of the "relief ace," when guys like Goose Gossage and Sparky Lyle regularly logged multi-inning saves, are long gone. Now, it's rare to see a closer work more than three outs at a time.
But even if K-Rod were shouldering a Gossage-like workload, he still wouldn't deserve the Cy Young. This is because great starting pitchers are uniformly more valuable than closers.
You'd think this would be self-evident, but all too often voters have ignored the obvious and given the Cy to closers. Actually, it's happened five times in the NL and four times in the AL. On each occasion, there were far worthier choices to be found among the ranks of starting pitchers. Let's put a finer point on this ...
Below you'll find a list of each closer Cy Young winner and their league rank, among pitchers, in a Baseball Prospectus statistic called Value Over Replacement Player/Pitcher (VORP). VORP measures, in runs saved, what a pitcher provides over and above a hypothetical pitcher who's comfortably below the league average (go here if you're interested in a more detailed explanation of VORP). Here's how the honored closers stack up:
| Year | Cy Young winner | Rank in VORP |
| 2003 | Eric Gagne, Dodgers (NL) | 16th |
| 1992 | Dennis Eckersley, A's (AL) | 24th |
| 1989 | Mark Davis, Padres (NL) | 24th |
| 1987 | Steve Bedrosian, Phillies (NL) | 31st |
| 1984 | Willie Hernandez, Tigers (AL) | 7th |
| 1981 | Rollie Fingers, Brewers (AL) | 9th |
| 1979 | Bruce Sutter, Cubs (NL) | 28th |
| 1977 | Sparky Lyle, Yankees (AL) | 16th |
| 1974 | Mike Marshall, Dodgers (NL) | 13th |
As you can see, in terms of actual value (sort of the point, right?), no closer who won the Cy Young deserved it. Mostly, it's a matter of innings. If you're a closer, then no matter how many saves you tally or how low your ERA is you're simply not going to be as valuable as a front-line starter who's working, in some instances, four times as many innings.
And that brings us back to K-Rod.
This season, Rodriguez ranks a mere 59th in VORP among AL hurlers. Once more for maximum emphasis: according to VORP, Rodriguez has been the 59th best pitcher in the American League in 2008. Closers never deserve to win Cy Youngs, but Rodriguez, should he take the hardware, would stand as perhaps the least deserving Cy Young winner of all-time.
Hell, this season 17 other relievers have higher VORPS than K-Rod does (!): Joe Nathan, Scott Downs, Mariano Rivera, Brad Ziegler, James Johnson, Joakim Soria, Bobby Jenks, Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Jonathan Papelbon, Jesse Carlson, Darren Oliver, Jose Arredondo, Matt Thornton, Ron Mahay, and Hideki Okajima. Rodriguez hasn't even been the best reliever on his own team.
Quibble with VORP if you like, but it's inarguable that Rodriguez doesn't merit serious consideration for the Cy Young. There's a debate — a good one — to be had over whether Cliff Lee of the Indians or Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays deserves it in the AL, but no closer should ever be a part of those discussions. Even Nathan, who's been miles better than K-Rod this season, can't approach Lee, Halladay or any number of other aces in terms of overall value. This is a simple reality of the game, and voters should begin acknowledging it.
To be sure, K-Rod is a great closer and certainly a thrill to watch, and he's worked some critical innings this season with success. However, the closer role has some built-in limitations, and those limitations mean that a modern closer should never, ever be given the Cy Young. That's the case regardless of how many saves Rodriguez hoards in 2008.
Member Comments
Dayn Perry you are an idiot,if this was Rivera or another east coast team you would have no problem with this.The only thing you are right about is a reliever should not be considered ever!Putting that aside i know this year is killing you because your poor east coast duo may not be around for the playoffs.It is about time for you and espn to recognize the Angels are for real,and they do have a great possibility of winning it all!
fanman78/30/2008 15:07:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Krod is smoking BUT!!! you can't give him a Cy Young for his manager using him as often as he can in the right situation..there has to be at least 3 starters that pitch great for 5+ innings every 5 days that deserve an award for what they do. I'm not saying that complete game machine from the Blue Jays should get it but,he should be at least 4th in the running ahead of Krod.<br /><br />And speaking of awards...AL MVP: Dustin Pedroia,everyone knows he's a hard working,gritty,no nonsense player but,if you actually look at his numbers.....He's leading the league in all kinds of hitting catagories plus he's hands down a gold glove 2nd baseman..The Red Sox would NOT be where they are without him(No offense YOUK!!)
mdsplash728/29/2008 21:47:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
I agree as do most of the voters, Mike has tried his best to pad his numbers all season. Mike is probably trying to show how important he is to resign.
sncktyme8/29/2008 14:01:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Dayn I agree with you that K-Rod is not deserving of the AL Cy Young this year, but must say that this is some of the most high school amateur writing I have ever seen on a sports site... in fact it seems Fox Sports has a lot of below average writers.
mikediems8/29/2008 1:32:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
As I sit here and read what everone says..I noticed a few people are saying doc should get it cuz hes in a AL east ...ok..lets see..isnt he like 0-2 vs the rays...boston..dont know the record..and the yankees..last time i checked arent they trying to stay on live support? Hand down this award goes to Lee not krod..hes a joke..I understand saves are huge but look at joe blow last year he lead the AL in saves and look at him now..I could understand if he didnt blow any saves like eric did a few years ago but come on..if krod wasnt on the angels he wont have half them saves...heck threw joe blow in the there and I et he would have have 50 saves alrady 2
katsoccer58/29/2008 0:06:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Here's another brilliant idea (if I say so myself)..Make sure that a starter goes into the HOF BEFORE a reliever does...IF a starter is NOT elected in a given year...NO reliever can go either..as in Baseball...Relievers ALWAYS follow behind the STARTING pitcher!! Gossage and Sutter in the HOF Before Blyleven, Tiant, Kaat, ect...what a JOKE!!!
Gnarly18/28/2008 15:56:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Here's an idea...award the BEST STARTING pitcher the Cy Young and the BEST RELIEVER the Hoyt Wilhelm Award!?!?,,,,Works for me!
Gnarly18/28/2008 15:49:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
And Papelbon should NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER win any award except for the "Best Way to Humiliate Your Fans" award. I still laugh when I see that cute little riverdance he did with the nut-hugger shorts on. <br />#1 most humiliating moment for Boston sports fans in history, worse than Buckner.
clevelandbci8/28/2008 14:33:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Wow, even the word ass gets bleeped out.
clevelandbci8/28/2008 14:29:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Instead of "showboating punk," how about loud-mouth moron?<br />NOBODY turn this into a stupid ass race issue please. That crap gets annoying and manages to work itself into every topic any more.<br />Being Latin doesn't make you fiery at times. It gives Latin big-mouth idiots like the White Sox manager an excuse to be an idiot. He doesn't get a pass for just for being of Latin descent.<br />Sports is similar to any other job in "Do your work. Shut your mouth."<br />No one mentioned crap about K-Rod's heritage as far as I could see.
clevelandbci8/28/2008 14:27:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Yeah, whats up with Blue Oyster's remarks? Yes, us latin boys can be a bit fiery at times, but a "showboating punk"? I think not. I don't think he meant that as a racist remark, but hey, his opinion is his opinion. and don't forget AngelsR#1...opinions are like a-holes...ervybody's got one.<br /><br />But yeah, do I think K-Rod deserves the Cy-young? Prob not....but I still wouldn't give him up for anything.<br /><br />GO ANGELS!!
NoNonsense758/28/2008 13:30:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Oh, BTW...has there been any resolution as to those 58 American League pitchers who are more valuable than Francisco Rodriguez? :-p
poeticadam8/28/2008 12:13:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
I don't agree with how Cult said it, but I also don't see how it was racially motivated or anything like that...<br /><br />Papelbon? He's not close within the scope of emotional displays to that of K-Rod.<br /><br />Not that there's anything wrong with emotion, but c'mon...not even Joba Chamberlain takes the emoting to such extremes.<br /><br />Uh-oh...did I defend a Yankee? Yeesh...I just might have the proper approach in becoming a FOX Sports journalist, or something. :-x
poeticadam8/28/2008 12:11:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
BlueOysterCult, you are obviously a sheltered White-Devil-KraKKer who has no concept of cultural behavior. Latins are very emotional and can be very flamboyant. You are probably okay with pasty-Papelbon or tubby-Joba doing basically the same thing, because they are white? Step away from the keyboard and get back to your banjo. Go HALOS!!!
AngelsR18/28/2008 11:39:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
The difference in walks between Lee and Halladay is 7 as you said, which is 25% difference approximately. That's why I mentioned it. And I was including complete games when I said Halladay led in Innings Pitched. Halladay WILL MOST CERTAINLY go down as the better pitcher between the 2 in history. But the award is for ONE year. THIS year. Clemens and Maddox would have 15 Cy Youngs each if if the award covered the entire body of work done over a career. If you asked any pitcher on earth whose stats they would want for a season, they would unanimously take Lee's. And that is what the award is about. I did mention the strikeouts too I thought being in Halladay's favor. If not then I apologize.
clevelandbci8/28/2008 11:04:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Clevelandandbci good spin doctoring on the stats 20 IP's is minimal but 7 walks isn't when you pitch 20 more innings, or how about 30 more k's for Halladay or 5 more co plete games or a lower whip. My whole point on this subject is this guy never gets enough ink, everybody talks about Beckett,Mussina,Wang whomever this guy would have won the Cy again in 2005 if he wasn't hit on the shin by a line drive. % of the last 7 years he has pitched over 200 innings W/L 125-47 with 36 CG's, that includes an 8-8 year in 2004 when he tried to pitch through a forearm strain. Lee will win the award but the best pitcher is Halladay and if you gave the players the choice of choosing a starting pitcher as their ace in the AL the would take Doc. If this guy was in NY,Chicago ,Boston or LA he would be worshipped by the media. KDondrea do you not think Halladay has missed a couple losses due to blown saves. What is with the little kid remark the only ones who are little kids are people like you who get into name calling. Cleveland andbci are just debating like MATURE fans do, guys like you are all mouth with a keyboard at your finger tips and miles away!
dl19678/28/2008 5:09:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Hey little kid dl1967, Cliff Lee is better than Halladay this year. And using the Yankees as an example doesn't say too much this year. As the Cleveland fan said, Cliff Lee would be over 20 wins by now if the bullpen didn't blow the lead. Not just one (1) time but three (3) that I know of and I may have missed a couple more.
KDondrea8/27/2008 20:27:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Cliff Lee is the Cy Young this year. No matter what anyone says. A pitcher on a losing team that has that many wins and that few losses deservers the Cy Young. Anyone with that record on a losing team truely is the best...... that year.<br /><br />As unfair as it is, the MVP will go to someone less deserving just because their team is in the playoffs but there is nothing wrong with the Cy Young going to a losing team.
KDondrea8/27/2008 20:23:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
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