by Ken Rosenthal

Comment

I like Jerry Manuel. I admire his leadership. I appreciate his honesty. If the Mets reach the postseason, I will consider voting for him for National League Manager of the Year.

But I cringe at how hard Manuel is pushing his starting pitchers, specifically ace left-hander Johan Santana.

If the Mets' bullpen cannot protect late-inning leads, then the team is not good enough to make the playoffs.

If Manuel keeps trying to compensate for his bullpen by asking more of his starters, then the team might not be good enough for years to come.

When Manuel talked about possible "damage to some people," he conceded that the Mets' quest for a postseason berth would compel him to ride certain players, leaving them more vulnerable to injury.

That's life in a pennant race; all contenders face such concerns. Manuel and the Mets are not abusing their starters. But little by little, they're going too far.

The Mets' past two losses, crushing late-inning defeats to Atlanta, demonstrated that their bullpen's recent success was an illusion, that Luis Ayala, Brian Stokes and Co. are worthy of only so much trust.

Manuel knew that all along, which is why he sent out Santana to start the eighth inning Saturday even though the left-hander already had labored through 107 pitches. Santana gave up back-to-back singles, leaving Manuel no choice but to summon the bullpen. A 2-0 lead evaporated into a 3-2 defeat.

I know what you're thinking: 107 pitches is not unreasonable, call off the pitch-count police! But Santana, 29, has averaged 112.5 pitches in his last six starts -- the most rigorous six-start stretch of his career. Teams look for trouble when they ask pitchers to exceed their normal workloads.

And the Mets aren't only doing it with Santana.

Righty Mike Pelfrey, the team's prized youngster, has averaged 110 pitches in his last five outings and worked 181 2/3 innings for the season -- 29 more than his previous career-high. Left-hander Jon Niese, a recent callup, threw 116 pitches in his second major-league start.

The Mets already have lost right-hander John Maine, who is expected to undergo offseason surgery to remove a bone spur in his right shoulder. Rick Peterson, the team's previous pitching coach, built in extra rest for Maine whenever possible, but Maine pitched every fifth day after the hirings of Manuel and pitching coach Dan Warthen on June 17. Maybe Maine was bound to get hurt. Maybe not.

Manuel is an interim manager. He needs to win to keep his job. But rest assured, Manuel is not operating as a maverick, independent of the front office's wishes. The entire Mets organization wants to justify its decision to replace Willie Randolph with Manuel. Just win, baby, and worry later about the cost.

Well, the change in managers obviously worked; that debate is over. Santana, though, represents an even bigger decision -- one that cost the Mets four prospects and a six-year, $137.5 million contract. The Mets should be handling Santana the way the Twins did. Pampering him. Babying him. Protecting him from himself.

In 2006, Santana won the American League Cy Young Award while leading the Twins to the AL Central title. His performance for the Twins then was no less important than it is for the Mets now. But he averaged just 100.3 pitches after Aug. 1, at a time when he was two years younger.

In four full seasons as a starter for the Twins, Santana averaged 101.1 pitches per start. As a Met, the number has risen to 104.8. Yes, it's a subtle distinction, perhaps too subtle to matter. We're not talking about a 24-year-old Tim Lincecum throwing 127 and 138 pitches in back-to-back starts (and 132 two starts before that). But Santana also has been less efficient with the Mets than he was with the Twins. He is averaging 15.4 pitches per inning, his highest figure since becoming a full-time starter.

So, even after switching to the more pitcher-friendly National League, Santana is working harder to get outs. He's pitching with less velocity than in the past, according to scouts who follow him closely. At 6-foot, 208 pounds, he is slightly built, hardly resembling a Roy Halladay-type workhorse.

This is a pitcher who needs to be handled more delicately as he gets older, not less -- particularly when the Mets have him signed through 2013 at an average of nearly $23 million per season. Pelfrey, too, is a critical part of the Mets' future. So is Maine, whom the team controls for three more seasons.

I don't want to sound overly alarmist -- winning is far more important than slavishly adhering to pitch counts, and fans are rightly disgusted when their favorite team's pitchers are treated like precious jewels. Still, pitching today is all about risk management. Yes, even in the middle of a pennant race.