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With Beckett hurt, Angels have edge
Postseason matchups
NLDS
ALDS
Each of the ailing Sox played a major role in last year's championship run. Beckett also was a force for the 2003 World Series champion Marlins. Even if his injury is as minor as the Sox say, he will now start only once in this series when he could have started twice.
Maybe the combination of Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka will be as potent as Beckett and Lester might have been in four of the potential five games.
Maybe Drew will recover sufficiently from a lower-back problem that has limited him to four at-bats since Aug. 17.
Maybe Lowell will overcome his torn right hip labrum and provide a reasonable facsimile of the player who won the World Series MVP award last season.
Phantastic Phils
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Phillies win 4-1 |
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Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Fraley | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
More on the playoffs:
But all that is a lot to ask.
I'll buy Lester and Matsuzaka as a strong counter to the Angels' John Lackey and Ervin Santana, even though both Red Sox pitchers struggled in their one start against the Angels this season (as did Beckett in his two starts).
The Sox's offense is a greater concern.
Mark Kotsay can replace Drew, and manager Terry Francona has two ways of replacing Lowell. The first is playing Sean Casey at first and moving Kevin Youkilis to third. The second is keeping Youkilis at first, playing Alex Cora at short and moving Jed Lowrie from short to third.
Here's the problem: Kotsay and Lowrie struggled in September, Jason Varitek all season. Cora, too, is limited offensively. If Lowell and Drew are out, there will be too many soft spots in the Sox's lineup, even though they tied for fifth in the American League in runs per game in September using a similar mix.
The Angels, of course, aren't 100 percent physically either — they chose the longer Division Series in part because they valued the days off after Games 1, 2 and 4 for their players coming off injuries — Vladimir Guerrero, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, etc.
Before Beckett was pushed back, one scout who has been tracking the Angels said he would not be surprised if the Sox swept the series. The scout thought Guerrero and Garret Anderson looked old, was less than impressed with the recent performances of Lackey and Santana and said that setup man Scot Shields was "not the same" as in the past.
All fair points, and the Angels' offense, even after the addition of Mark Teixeira, still isn't terribly potent — the team ranked 12th in the AL in runs per game in August, then tied for fifth in September. The Angels, ever aggressive, see fewer pitches than any AL club, which is good news for Matsuzaka, who routinely runs up high pitch counts.
But enough of the negative.
The Angels score in a variety of ways, and their running game, even with Kendrick limited and Maicer Izturis sidelined, should figure prominently. Sox catcher Jason Varitek threw out only 19.8 percent of opposing base stealers in the regular season, the fourth-worst percentage in the AL. Angels manager Mike Scioscia will put runners in motion, apply constant pressure. For the Sox — and Matsuzaka in particular — the trick will be keeping Chone Figgins and Co. off base.
The bullpens are fairly even; the Red Sox might even rate a slight edge, thanks to the emergence of rookie Justin Masterson and September surges of Manny Delcarmen and lefty Hideki Okajima. The built-in off- days will allow both managers to use their closers in the eighth inning, if necessary. The Jonathan Papelbon-Francisco Rodriguez duels will only add to the drama.
The Red Sox are the Red Sox even without Manny Ramirez, but the Angels possess home-field advantage and are 8-1 against the Sox this season. If Beckett isn't Beckett, the Angels' chances will be that much better.
Prediction: Angels in 5.
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