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No reason to start doubting Rays now

by Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since Aug. 2005. He appears weekly on the FSN Baseball Report and MLB on FOX.

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Updated: October 1, 2008, 8:52 PM EDT
For all they accomplished in the regular season, the Rays ranked only ninth in the American League in runs per game. One reason: The team rarely had three of its best hitters — Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford — clicking at the same time.

Pena struggled for much of the first half. Longoria was injured for nearly a month in the second half. Crawford missed almost all of the final seven weeks. But if Crawford, as expected, rejoins the lineup for the Division Series, the Rays' offense finally will be complete.

Maybe the more experienced White Sox will get on a roll after winning three straight elimination games to reach the postseason. Gaining a split at Tropicana Field — where the Rays had the best home record in the majors in the regular season — would give the Sox immense confidence heading back to Chicago.

But the Rays, too, might be ready to peak.

Crawford, mind you, hasn't faced major-league pitching since Aug. 9, when he suffered an injury to his right middle-finger tendon. Still, his speed and defense alone should make a difference. If he is too rusty, the Rays can always go back to Eric Hinske in left field.

Scouts continue to question whether the Rays' bullpen will hold up in the playoffs, but three of the team's starters — righty James Shields, lefty Scott Kazmir and righty Andy Sonnanstine — handled the White Sox well during the regular season. Righty Matt Garza, who had mixed results against the Sox as a member of the Twins in 2007, did not face them this year.

Kazmir, after struggling in two of his last three starts, is something of a wild card — he looks "very, very mechanical," one scout says, mentioning that Kazmir is perhaps compensating for an injury. The Rays' rotation, though, has been far less taxed than the White Sox's overall.

Javier Vazquez, Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd all pitched on three days rest in two of their last three starts, and John Danks was brilliant in his first career start on short rest Tuesday night in the tie-breaker for the AL Central title.

Manager Ozzie Guillen could start Buehrle on short rest again rather than the struggling Vazquez in Game 1. Or, he could go with Vazquez in Game 1 and Buerhle in Game 2, ensuring that each of his starters will work on normal or extended rest in every game of the series.

The White Sox's biggest advantage will be their power — they hit 234 home runs this season, most in the majors, and the Rays' defensive superiority will be negated if balls start flying out of the park. But the Rays' edge in speed might be an even bigger factor in this series.

The Rays led the majors with 142 stolen bases this season. Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski threw out only 10.3 percent of opposing base stealers, the worst percentage among major-league regulars. Crawford, B.J. Upton and Jason Bartlett could drive Pierzynski nuts.

Win this series, and the Rays would answer yet another challenge in a season in which they have passed every test.

Win this series, and they would stand a decent chance against the Red Sox or Angels in the ALCS.

Prediction: Rays in 4.

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I have to disagree with Rosenthal prediction just with a slight change I think the Rays take it in 5. The Rays pitching beats the White Sox hitting anyday of the week, and oh the Rays have homefield not the White Sox. I see a Rays vs Angels ALCS this year.

DMLuntzDMLuntz
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The Rays have gotten where they are because they have the talent and the heart. They win together and they lose together, and they want to win for EACH OTHER. Watching these guys play makes me realize why I love this game in the first place, they play it right. GO RAYS!!!(and Bart!!)

nicsixx4nicsixx4
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jarhead, you been talkin smack for the last two weeks, now you want to listen to some article instead of what people have been telling you since pretty much the last month. GO AWAY YOU POSEUR. Let the real fans of the Rays enjoy their time in the playoffs, no matter how long it lasts.

tleefartleefar
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GO RAYS! It is truly amazing that so many people don't believe that the Rays, with 97 wins this season, have a chance in the playoffs. Sit back and watch the magic happen starting today! The Red Sox and Yankee fans just can't get that the Rays won the AL East! Too Bad!! GO RAYS!

FanInTBFanInTB
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GO SOX!!!

moses1977moses1977
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macdaddy111, correction:<br /><br />The team with the third longest drought won 4 years ago. The team with the second longest drought won 3 years ago. <br />The Red Sox won the 1918 world series. The White Sox won the 1917 world series.

gilmancgilmanc
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Jarhead444... 5 years later.... died in Iraq, shot by his own troops.... Go WHITE SOX

thebigPerkythebigPerky
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If everyone here were as smart as they type, then prognosticators everywhere would be out of jobs. The facts are: <br />There are eight teams that made it this far, regardless of how they got here.<br />The "worst" team in the playoffs just won the World Series two years ago.<br />The "best" team in the playoffs just won the World Series last year.<br />The last three World Series winners all had distinctive styles of play from eachother.<br />Four years ago, a team who hadn't won for the second longest tenure became the new dynasty in baseball.<br />Anything can happen, and will. <br />Cheer for your team and enjoy this sport for the right reasons, not to impose your personal flaws as percieved opinions.<br />That being said, I am a Chicago White Sox fan and I hope my team wins the World Series. If they don't, there's always next year to try to do it again. At least I know I'll see some amazing athletes (overpaid though they might be) do something that most of us can only dream of and talk about. Enjoy the playoffs, "fans."

macdaddy111macdaddy111
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To all of you "naysayers" who believe the SOX should not be in the playoffs..SHUT UP! We're in, deal with us and keep a lid on it. If we lose to Tampa, good luck to the Rays the rest of the way..if we BEAT them..shhh...and go whine in your beer!

MAIZEMAIZE
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Jughead...<br />"The Rays will finish the job in 4 games (quite possibly). white Sox should not even be in the Playoffs (but they ARE!!). They are Chicagos second Team (The White SOX are the FIRST team in Chicago to win the series in a century!!) and always will (WRONG!). Go Tampa (OK)!!!! Go Cubs (JOKE!)!!!!!" <br /><br />A big yank fan, a cubs fan, a rays fan.... WOW it'll be tough for you to lose... except that you already DID... being a yank fan...

kubhaterkubhater
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Rays will get it done....at least in the first round.

ivorydomesports.comivorydomesports.com
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I hate the Red Sox, Angels, and the White Sox so i am going with the Tampa Rays.

jarhead444jarhead444
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Rays vs Angels in the Alcs.

jarhead444jarhead444
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The Rays will finish the job in 4 games. white Sox should not even be in the Playoffs. They are Chicagos second Team and always will. Go Tampa!!!! Go Cubs!!!!!

jarhead444jarhead444
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antiwolf07:<br /><br />True, if the White Sox had taken care of business this past weekend and won two out of three at home, they could have avoided having to play the last two days altogether and been in much better shape to take on the Rays tomorrow. And I definitely haven't forgotten how Kansas City was playing in September: I live in the Kansas City area.<br /><br />But heller06 wasn't grousing about Minnesota having to play a division-deciding playoff game, but having to play it in Chicago given that Minnesota won the season series between the two. White Sox fans obviously aren't unhappy about where the playoff game was played yesterday. This wasn't like the Astros having to play two home games down the stretch in Milwaukee because of Hurricane Ike: I fully understand the Astros' fans feeling that they got jobbed, because they were powerless over the circumstances that forced them to play vital games away from home. Minnesota, on the other hand, had control over its own destiny going into its final three home games. Everyone knows full well going into the season that if a division play-off game is necessary at the end of 162 games, its venue is, at least at presented, decided by a coin flip. If you don't want to have your playoff fate decided that way, then don't put yourself in a position where it could be - like Minnesota did by losing two of its last three at home.

heartlandhowardheartlandhoward
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heartlandhoward:<br />A coin flip for the venue has been the way the location for a division playoff game has always been decided, although I think there is considerable justification for your idea. And if the head-to-record was even, the next tie-breaker to decide the one-game playoff venue should be record within your division - and if THAT still doesn't settle in, THEN do a coin flip.<br /><br />However, even the considerable justification of having held the game last night in Minneapolis rather than Chicago notwithstanding, the Twins really have no one to blame for this but themselves. They had their last regular-season series of the year at home against the Royals. Win two out of three and they're in. So the Twins have no excuses. They put THEMSELVES in a position to be, as you say, jobbed.<br /><br />I agree, wholeheartedly, with your first paragraph. However, your comment about the Twins last series against KC failed to include how the Sox could just as easily have wrapped up the division with their homestand against Cleveland. Lest you forget, KC was actually playing phenomonal baseball down the stretch. Let's face it-the Twins and Sox were about as evenly matched as two teams fighting for the palyoffs could be with the major difference in the "How" the runs were scored

antiwolf07antiwolf07
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Abeebe:<br /><br />The White Sox have a realistic chance to beat the Rays because in a short series, having a 1-2-3 combo of Buehrle, Floyd, and Danks is a pretty good trio to be able to throw out there; just look at what Danks did last night. I was saying coming into this past weekend that if I were a Rays fan, I think I'd rather face Minnesota than Chicago, because the Twins' starters don't scare me as much as the aforementioned three.<br /><br />The biggest worry I'd have if I was a Sox fan (which I am, only the rouge shade, not the pale hue) is the Sox' over-reliance on the long ball. Come playoff time, the pitching staffs a team will see is the best there were that season, with few exceptions, and therefore a team can't expect to be jacking long balls at the same rate they did in the regular season. The White Sox-Rays matchup looks ominously similar to the 1982 World Series matchup of the Brewers and the Cardinals: power vs. speed. And power can stop or BE stopped, but speed DOESN'T stop. Which is exactly what happened in 1982, as Whitey's rabbits beat Harvey's Wallbangers.<br /><br />Still, all in all, I think the White Sox have a much better chance of beating Tampa than a lot of people think. In point of fact, the White Sox, in their last three games, just completed what was effectively three win-or-die playoff sweeps. So the White Sox have ALREADY been playing playoff ball the last three days. And say whatever else you will about Ozzie Guillen, his track record as a crunch-time manager is beyond reproach. I would not be at all surprised to see the White Sox in the ALCS.

heartlandhowardheartlandhoward
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If the White Sox pitching remains as solid as it has, there is no reason to believe that the Rays will actually get guys on base to steal bags... The only fear I have is sending Vasquez to the mound... maybe the playoffs will be the motivation he needs to start kicking some ass.

thebigPerkythebigPerky
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TexWinter-<br />EVA Longoria is one of the hottest actresses going and is NOT a bum. EVAN Longoria is whom I think you are referring to. As far as who should be Rookie of the Year, it's a toss-up statistically speaking. Had Ramirez struck out against the Tigers on Monday, instead of homering, I bet you wouldn't be bragging so much...

antiwolf07antiwolf07
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The Tampa Bay Rays are the Cinderella story of Major League Baseball this season, but why do I have this feeling the White Sox have a legitimate chance to turn the Rays' dream season into a nightmare? When it comes to postseason experience, the Sox actually have the edge and a battle-tested veteran in Game 2 with Mark Buehrle Friday. Javy Vazquez starting Game 1 Thursday scares me, only because when he faced the Yankees & Twins on the road down the stretch, Javy was awful. The Rays have the home field & can run as soon as they get on. They're very similar to the Twins to a certain degree. As a Sox fan, I'll be cheering for the Southsiders. I won't be surprised, let alone disappointed if the Rays win this series in 5.

AbeebeAbeebe
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