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Prediction: Lots to like about Phils, but . . .
Phantastic Phils
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Phillies win 4-1 |
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Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Fraley | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
Rosenthal | Kriegel | Video | Photos |
More on the playoffs:
Oh, the National League technically is in the majors, but the AL champion Rays are considerably more potent than the Phillies' two NL playoff opponents, the Brewers and Dodgers.
Not potent enough to sweep the Phillies, mind you. But potent enough to win a best-of-7 in which they possess home-field advantage.
The Rays fear that the Phillies possess an AL-style lineup, knowing that the Phils won the NLCS in five games despite leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins and cleanup man Ryan Howard going a combined 5-for-33 in the first four.
That fear is legitimate, to a point. The Phillies are stronger offensively than the Red Sox were in the ALCS, when David Ortiz struggled and the bottom third of the Sox's order mostly consisted of outs. But I can give you three reasons why the Phillies' lineup might struggle in the World Series.
The Phillies are confident despite all this, and not without reason. They're a team of hungry, tough-minded veterans. They've got the best starting pitcher in the series, left-hander Cole Hamels, and also the better 1-2 bullpen punch, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge. While the Rays' rotation is deeper -- Matt Garza vs. Jamie Moyer could be a mismatch in Game 3 -- the Phillies believe that their starters match up well against Tampa Bay.
The Rays, like most clubs, love hitting fastballs. The Phillies feature two lefties who make heavy use of changeups, Hamels and Moyer, a righty who relies on his curveball, Brett Myers, and another righty who throws four pitches, Joe Blanton. The rotation's collective ability to change speeds, Phillies officials believe, could provide an edge.
"I don't buy that, not necessarily," one scout says. "Tampa can hit breaking balls as well. You can get breaking balls over for strikes in hitters' counts. Because they are geared for the fastball, you can get away with not making the perfect pitch with the breaking ball. But once they see it, if you go back-to-back and try to throw the same one, they're going to hit it."
In any case, the Phillies do not figure to pitch as passively as the Red Sox did against Tampa Bay. In fact, we could see the same type of friction that we did in the NLCS, with Phillies pitchers repeatedly throwing high and inside. The Rays' B.J. Upton, in particular, hates getting thrown at, according to one scout.
Only three AL clubs hit more home runs than Tampa Bay during the regular season. The Rays then set an LCS record by hitting 16 homers in seven games. Yet, the Red Sox never made the Tampa Bay hitters uncomfortable, allowing them to take one big swing after another without fear of getting buzzed. The Phillies won't make the same mistake.
Rays manager Joe Maddon could go with some interesting lineups -- both Hamels and Myers feature reverse splits, so don't be surprised if the Rays use left-handed hitters against Hamels (trying to reduce the impact of his changeup) and righties against Myers. I worry about Moyer, who has been ineffective in his two postseason starts. And the Rays like the way their left-handed hitters match up against Blanton.
Of course, these things rarely play out the way anyone expects. Little- used Matt Stairs, 40, hit the Phillies' biggest home run in the NLCS. Rays rookie left-hander David Price closed the ALCS after appearing in only five games in the regular season and two in the postseason -- and could play a big role again against the Phillies' two big left-handed hitters, Chase Utley and Howard.
The last seven-game World Series was the Angels' victory over the Giants in 2002. Rays-Phillies looks to be just as competitive. Both teams could hit a ton of homers. The Rays' pitching looks better, but the Phillies' offense eventually figures to erupt, especially after the series moves to Citizens Bank Park. One thing to remember: The Phillies haven't played on field turf, the surface at Tropicana Field, in more than two years.
Before taking umbrage with my pick, be aware that I predicted an Indians-Braves World Series in spring training, then went 2-for-4 with my selections in the Division Series and 1-for-2 in the LCS. Hardly an impressive batting average, but I have yet to miss picking the Rays, so here I go again.
The pick: Rays in seven.
Member Comments
You swithched the teams you monkey. Rays welcome to the majors. Grow a few inches and play some sports before you comment on them with zero knowledge!
floppednuts10/27/2008 5:56:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Wipe that smile off yer face, monkey boy. Prediction: Ken Rosenthal might claim to know about baseball, but...
droogy5910/27/2008 3:53:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Ken you fool -thats phillies 3 rays 1 with hamels coming up for the home clincher.with a bit of luck fox sports should acknowledge the poor job you have done and hire a deaf mute monkey from phillie zoo.Not to be disrepectful but stick your welcome to the major leagues where the sun dont shine.Go phils-wrap this up in 5
AussieGaz10/27/2008 3:12:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Ken,<br />I can't even believe you are allowed to interview the Phillies. Ah, you still need that stepstool. Have you ever even picked up a ball in your life aside from the one between your legs that you need to stick in your mouth?!!! Wrong again, Dickie!!!! You are beyond a tool! I, too, wouldn't pee on you if you were on fire.
mimer10/23/2008 3:50:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Andy I,<br />That is what the Dodgers and Brewers fans said too. Go play with your Cowbell you bandwagoner. Phils in 6 or less. Go Phils Go! 3 more baby!
fightinphils0810/22/2008 22:05:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Back to Ken the dousche...You are not only a dwarf, but are also a mental midget when talking about your predictions. You would like to welcome the phillies to the major league?! Get aids you prickk!!!!
MikeLowell1510/22/2008 21:55:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Couple of things: 1 - Rosenthal, I liked you during the season, but now you do nothing but bash the Phillies like the rest of the Fox announcers. Not exactly sure why, the Tampa market is ranked below Fargo, ND.<br /><br />2 - To all of you bandwagon Rays fans (your average attendance this season was 7,500 - YUCK). It was cute to see you talk trash about sweeping the Phils, but now that you have come to reality go back to licking Mike Alstotts grundle and go fk your mothers. ADIOS - PHILS IN 5!!!!
MikeLowell1510/22/2008 21:49:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Game 1 to the Phils. But it's the Rays the rest of the way! Go Rays!
Andy_I.10/22/2008 21:36:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Go Phils go. So much for you Rays fans talking your sweep trash. That didnt last too long. I guess our AA ballclub as you guys call it just kicked your ####! Just keep underestimating us and we will just keep winning. Plus we havent even hit yet. Tampa you are in big trouble.Go Phils go!
fightinphils0810/22/2008 21:21:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
With no salary cap and the pitiful revenue sharing plan under the current agreement, the Rays will have a very difficult time keeping the team together with the size of their market. 6 of the 8 teams that made the playoffs had payrolls in the top ten and were from some of the largest markets in the country. Util MLB does what the NBA, NFL, and NHL have done, it will always be this way.
RCP569110/22/2008 18:10:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Rosenthal is usually wrong. Go with the odds.
space_invader10/22/2008 16:54:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
kwhal<br /><br />Do you have a crystal ball? No one can predict how the Tampa Bay front office will manage this new found success. These young kids will become newly minted superstars looking for their first big pay day.<br /><br />Will the Rays renegotiate and extend contracts, let players walk via free agency or trade some for new prospects to build with?<br />No one knows how this orgamization will manage talent in this era of success. You cannot assume anything expect there will be many changes as contracts expire.<br /><br />There's no guarantee the Rays will be good for many years. They must keep most of these players to do so and there's not yet been an indication if they're willing to spend the money. <br /><br />One thing for sure, they'll no longert have #1 and #2 overall draft picks to stockpile talent.
dadio6110/22/2008 16:38:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
donkeyblower<br /><br />Yes, some Red Sox fans are still around. We're baseball fans in addition to being fans of our team. That's a foriegn concept to some fans who bail out the moment their team is eliminated.
dadio6110/22/2008 16:31:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Do you find it hard to talk...with your head lodged all the way up your ass?
EvilC9810/22/2008 14:12:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
weaint,<br />your an idiot to even think that...you are joking right?
EvilC9810/22/2008 14:10:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
I'm confused Ken; would you mind giving us embarrassed Sox fans the race statistics of the Rays, since they're so relevant to anything?
ispeakforme10/22/2008 13:11:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
While this matchup appears to be even between the Rays & Phillies, FOX Sports & ESPN Radio bosses are hopeful that this yawner of a "Fall Classic" is a lengthy one. If it's a 4 game sweep, this World Series could be one of the lowest rated in the storied history of Major League Baseball on TV.
Abeebe10/22/2008 13:01:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
evil<br />keep telling yourself that...maybe you can set yourself up for another reality hangover. Sox are toast...yesterdays champs...tomorrows chumps. It all came to screeching halt when they couldn't get the big hit in the last 2 innings. Pedroia is the real deal...Elsbury had a good run...but he's lost the confidence...written all over his face. Papelbom will continue to less effective and have less games to save...Bay is good but he ain't got the moxie to carry the rest like your sellout mannywood. Read it and weep the dynasty is over. TB and NY will drown your sox next year.
weainthatino110/22/2008 12:19:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
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