Tracy Ringolsby is a Hall of Fame baseball writer, recipient of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award during 2006 Hall of Fame ceremonies in Cooperstown. He is a former beat writer for the Rocky Mountain News, a co-founder of Baseball America, and he appears on pre- and post-game shows for Colorado Rockies games on FSN Rocky Mountain.
CHICAGO - Looking to placate a dwindling fan base, and concerned about growing financial pressures, Arizona officials panicked, and fired manager Bob Melvin.
The Diamondbacks responded by losing seven of their next nine games.
Surprised?
Don't be.
Managers are traditionally the scapegoats for a plan that fails to materialize. More than a way to spark a team to success, however, managerial changes are more often ways for ownership and front offices to deflect attention to defects in a team.
Talk about putting earrings on a pig ...
Melvin became the 43rd in-season managerial change since the advent of the wild card in 1995. History doesn't bode well for teams that switch managers.
Some numbers:
Just 33 of the 42 prior in-season changes resulted in a team's winning percentage improving under the new managers. That includes all 10 managers fired within the first 50 games of the season. Is it unreasonable to think that those teams would have played better as the season wore on, regardless of the manager? How much improvement did Detroit really show in 2002 when Phil Garner was fired after an 0-6 start and replaced by Luis Pujols, who oversaw a 55-100 record during his reign? Only one of those 10 teams with an early-season managerial change finished with a winning record, although it was a dramatic reversal for those 2003 Florida Marlins, who overcame a 16-22 start under Jeff Torborg to win the world championship under the guidance of Jack McKeon. The average winning percentage improved 51 points — the median was a 41-point improvement — but what's the impact if the team still finished with a losing record? Only 13 of the 42 teams that made a change had a winning record under the new manager, and in four of those instances, the fired manager had a .500 or better record. Only four of the 42 teams made the postseason the year of the change — the 1996 Dodgers when Bill Russell replaced Tommy Lasorda; the 2003 Marlins; the 2004 Houston Astros when Phil Garner took over for Jimy Williams, and Milwaukee when Dale Sveum replaced Ned Yost with 12 games remaining in the season. Only two other teams eventually advanced to the postseason with the in-season managerial hire still managing the team — Bobby Valentine, who replaced Dallas Green with the Mets in 1993, took the Mets to the playoffs in 1999 and 2000, and Clint Hurdle, who replaced Buddy Bell with the Rockies in April of 2002, managed the Rockies to the World Series in 2007. Of the 23 managers who did return for the start of the season after taking over a team in mid-season, 10 were later fired in mid-season themselves, and only six survived at least two full seasons on the job.
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Series stuff
Fourteen interleague series highlight the schedule this weekend, including the regional showdowns of Cleveland at Cincinnati in the Battle of Ohio; Tampa Bay at Florida in the Citrus Series; Texas at Houston in the Lone Star Series; Kansas City at St. Louis in the Show Me Series, and Angels at Dodgers in the Freeway Series. The lone NL series has the Cubs traveling to San Diego. The AL East showdown at Fenway Park featuring a visit by the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays will be missing the excitement of a Roy Halladay-Josh Beckett showdown. The two are both scheduled to pitch on Friday — the day after the three-game series ends. The Cubs, meanwhile, visit St. Louis for three games beginning on Tuesday, the Cardinals welcoming right-hander Chris Carpenter back to the active roster to start Wednesday's game. Carpenter, limited to only 21 1/3 innings of work the last two seasons because of arm injuries, has been out since April 15 because of a strained left oblique. Carpenter did create hope with two starts before the injury, allowing one unearned run in 10 innings.Milestone watch
Rockies 1B Todd Helton, hitting .357 for the season and .424 in the last 18 games, needs one hit to reach 2,000. The Rockies begin a four-game visit to Atlanta, where he has a solid track record against the Braves and a .361 career average against Monday starter Derek Lowe. Focus on Seattle Friday night when the Giants visit Safeco Park, and Randy Johnson seeks win No. 299 for the visiting team. After making his first 11 big-league appearances with Montreal, Johnson was part of the package of players the Expos sent to Seattle for Mark Langston during the 1989 season, and it was with Seattle that he won the first of his five Cy Young awards (in 1995) and made 274 of his 604 big-league appearances (266 of 594 starts), which is more than he has made for any other team.Feeling the draft
Washington has nothing to lose by selecting right-hander Stephen Strasburg of San Diego State. First off, if they don't sign Strasburg, the Nationals would receive the No. 2 pick overall next year as compensation for their failure. That'll most likely give them the first two picks in the 2010 draft. Secondly, the Nationals have a safety net this year because in addition to the No. 1 pick in the draft they have the 10th selection overall as compensation for failing to sign first-round pick Aaron Crow, the right-handed pitcher out of Missouri, a year ago. Give agent Scott Boras credit. He has been able to create enough conversation about Strasburg being in line for a six-year, $50 million deal that if the Nationals were to give him $25 million — more than double the biggest bonus ever for a draft player — the spin would be what a bargain Washington received. Talk about Strasburg brings back memories of 1990, when Atlanta walked away from right-hander Todd Van Poppel because of signability issues and used the No. 1 overall pick on high school shortstop Larry "Chipper" Jones, and 2001 when Minnesota general manager Terry Ryan was blasted for being cheap when he passed on right-handed pitcher Mark Prior and used the No. 1 overall pick on high school catcher Joe Mauer.Notes
There's growing evidence of the lack of interest in Oakland. The A's-Royals game last Wednesday had an announced ticket sale of 16,057, and that was the largest of the A's nine-game homestand. Washington has lost seven games this season in which it has either led or been tied entering the ninth inning, only two times fewer than all of last season. Veteran major-league umpire Rick Reed, returning to work after suffering two strokes in the past year, is scheduled to work the weekend series featuring Pittsburgh at the White Sox.
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