by Ken Rosenthal

Wedge watch

Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is absolutely right when he says it would be a "cop-out" to fire manager Eric Wedge. The Indians have been hit by an inordinate number of injuries, and no manager could win with their awful bullpen. Former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle lost his players, and the team waited at least two weeks too long to fire him. Wedge has shown less patience than in the past, occasionally singling out players for criticism. But the Indians are competing hard; otherwise, they would not be in position to lose so many games in the late innings. Wedge is not blameless — his teams often start the season slowly, and he bears at least partial responsibility for the struggles of the bullpen. Still, virtually every criticism of Wedge comes back to the roster he was given. Yes, many of the Indians' players have gone backward, but is that faulty managing or faulty evaluation? The back of the Indians' rotation was a major question from the start of spring training. The bullpen looked like a strength; instead, it's a problem for the third time in the past four seasons. The overriding issue: Since taking CC Sabathia in the first round 11 years ago, the Indians have gotten little pitching help from the draft. The problem for Wedge is that once talk of a dismissal starts, it's difficult to stop. This is his seventh season. He is the third-longest tenured manager in the AL So, fans naturally identify him as the problem and clamor for change. I'm not buying it — at least not yet. Let's see what happens now that center fielder Grady Sizemore is back. Let's see what happens after shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and pitchers Aaron Laffey and Rafael Betancourt return. If little improves, the case against Wedge will mount. But I keep thinking back to what Shapiro said earlier this season: Wedge is not part of the problem. He's part of the solution.

Everyone else, enjoy the drama.

The Nationals fully expect Strasburg's adviser, Scott Boras, to leverage them from D.C. to San Diego. But most everyone in baseball agrees that Strasburg eventually will agree to a record deal in the range of $15 million to $18 million.

"Most everyone," though, does not necessarily include Boras, who proved with right-hander Luke Hochevar in 2005 that he is perfectly willing to hold out an amateur pitcher for an entire year and re-enter him in the following draft.

The difference is that Hochevar turned down $2.98 million from the Dodgers, and Strasburg likely would be turning down at least five times that much. But it's far too early in the process to talk about common sense.

The doomsday scenario for the Nationals goes like this:

They fail to sign Strasburg, just as they failed to sign their first rounder in 2008, a non-Boras client, right-hander Aaron Crow. They then select high-school catching phenom Bryce Harper with the No. 1 pick next year. Harper, who already is represented by Boras, would pose the following, perfectly legitimate question: "Why should I sign with a team that has shown such little interest in winning?"

By then, the Nationals presumably would have chosen a general manager and decided the fate of manager Manny Acta — presumably. They actually would have the first two picks — the No. 1 for finishing with the worst record in the majors (just give it to them now), the No. 2 for failing to sign Strasburg. They could not draft Strasburg again without securing his consent. Fat chance they would get it.

Of course, the Nats already have signed their compensation pick for Crow, awarding Stanford right-hander Drew Storen, the 10th overall pick, a $1.6 million bonus — a below-slot figure for a pitcher whom many expected to be drafted lower.

And, of course, a doomsday scenario exists for Strasburg as well.

If he blew off the Nationals to enter the 2010 draft, he would lose at least half a season of service time — time that would get him closer to free agency, which is where the big money is. He would risk injury if he pitched in some independent league. And he would sacrifice leverage in the next time draft unless he was willing to sit out another year.

You can see where this is going.

By Aug. 17, both sides will completely despise each other. And by Aug. 17, Strasburg will sign on the Nationals' dotted line — as long as Boras does not load his pen with invisible ink.

Arroyo on the block? Not yet

Talk of the Reds' willingness to trade right-hander Bronson Arroyo is premature. The Reds cannot consider moving Arroyo until righty Edinson Volquez recovers from elbow tendinitis, and Volquez probably will not return until after the All-Star break.

At that point, the team might have enough depth to deal a starting pitcher for a hitter, particularly if righty Homer Bailey succeeds in his promotion from Triple-A. Bailey, 4-0 with a 0.46 ERA in his last five starts since learning a split-fingered fastball, is expected to rejoin the rotation on Saturday.

The return of Volquez and addition of Bailey, in theory, would give the Reds the flexibility to trade Arroyo, who is earning $9.5 million this season and $10 million next season with an $11 million club option for 2011.

Righties Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto and Micah Owings are the Reds' other starters, and Matt Maloney would represent depth at Triple-A.

McLouth vs. McCutchen? Not Exactly

Andrew McCutchen is outhitting Nate McLouth since replacing him in center field, but that does not necessarily justify the Pirates' decision to trade McLouth to the Braves' for three prospects.

Andrew McCutchen is outhitting Nate McLouth since replacing him in center. (David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

As one rival general manager points out, the Pirates could have kept both players; McLouth had agreed in February to a club-friendly extension. In theory (probably not reality) they also could have extended Jason Bay or Xavier Nady last season rather than trade both. A long-term outfield of McCutchen, McLouth and Bay or Nady would have been something.

The Pirates' rationale for the McLouth trade was hardly unreasonable; the organization, short on talent, needs players, and lots of 'em. They acquired 11 players for Nady, Bay, McLouth and Damaso Marte. Only after those players develop —or not — can the team's strategy be fairly judged.

You say Aki, I say Zorilla

Great news for the Rays that second baseman Akinori Iwamura could return from left-knee surgery in six to eight weeks. Iwamura required only arthroscopic surgery, not the reconstruction that the Rays originally feared.

The surgery took place nearly a month after Iwamura's initial injury; the Rays' medical director, Dr. James Andrews, advocates "prehab" for certain procedures. The time that Iwamura spent strengthening his leg muscles and allowing his swelling to subside should help with his recovery.

The obvious question is how the Rays will use Ben Zobrist, the American League leader in OPS, after Iwamura returns. Most likely, Zobrist would return to his super-utility role, getting at-bats in center field, right, shortstop and second, where Iwamura is unlikely to play every day.

Productive as Zobrist has become, he might be even more valuable to the Rays as a super-utility man, lengthening their roster the way Chone Figgins once did for the Angels. That is, as long as Zobrist's offense does not suffer, and he certainly was doing fine before Iwamura got hurt.

Urban cowboys in Tampa Bay

Rays manager Joe Maddon frequently picks a themed wardrobe for the team's road trips. The theme for the Rays' recent visit to Colorado and New York was "urban cowboy." The players wore boots, jeans, cowboy shirts, cowboy hats.

Previously Maddon called for all-white garb. He also is planning a "Ring of Fire" trip — all black, in tribute to the late Johnny Cash — and possibly a plaid-jacket extravaganza.

Maddon says he wants to encourage not only team unity, but also risk-taking, getting out of your comfort zone.

"Some guys understand it," he says. "With other guys, it goes completely over their heads."

Steroids and cigarettes: a clarification

In my column Monday about Donald Fehr, I criticized Gene Orza, the chief operating officer of the players' union, for saying at a conference in 2004, "I have no doubt that (steroids) are not worse than cigarettes."

I did not place the comment in context; nor have many others who have taken exception with Orza's remark. Orza, in an e-mail, said that his larger point was that "health considerations aren't a reason to subject people to suspicionless urine testing."

According to an ESPN.com report from the conference, Orza said, "Let's assume that (steroids) are a very bad thing to take. I have no doubt that they are not worse than cigarettes. But I would never say that to the clubs as an individual who represents the interests of the players, 'Gee, I guess by not allowing baseball to suspend and fine players for smoking cigarettes, I am not protecting their health.'

"Whether it's good for bad for you, it's a far cry to say that because it's bad for you, you should participate in a structure that allows your employer to punish you for doing something you shouldn't be doing. That's not my understanding of what a union does for their employees."

Orza said he also recalls saying, "You test for steroids because they constitute an illegal form of cheating." The ESPN.com account did not include a reference to such a remark. And the union certainly did not advocate testing on those grounds.

Even if you grant Orza this entire argument — that steroids are no worse than cigarettes, that it is not the union's responsibility to protect the players from themselves — my original point still stands.

The union failed its membership on the issue of steroids.

Around the Horn

The Brewers' quest for pitching could lead to renewed talks with the Braves, who in the past have targeted Brewers right fielder Corey Hart. The Braves would need to clear their own right fielder, Jeff Francoeur, before acquiring Hart, and no team is hot after Francoeur.

The Brewers lack a suitable replacement for Corey Hart. (Jim Prisching / Associated Press)

The problem for the Brewers in trading Hart is their lack of a suitable replacement. Still, the Braves are deep in pitching — and could get even deeper if right-hander Tim Hudson returns from Tommy John surgery in mid-August.