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Doc on the block: Trading an ace

by JEFF BLAIR , The Globe and Mail


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jblair@globeandmail.com

The cold reality is that Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay is the face of an injury-riddled team with a .500 record. He's owed about $20-million through 2010 by a franchise with the sixth-lowest attendance in the major leagues this season. And so, general manager J.P. Ricciardi is listening to offers for Baseball's premier workhorse starting pitcher. In fact, he already started listening before saying so publicly. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim GM Tony Reagins sounded out Ricciardi about Halladay's availability before the weekend, according to the Los Angeles Times. Ricciardi's statements to the media came as no surprise to Halladay.

With that in mind, here is a Halladay Trade Primer, considering individuals, teams and circumstances that will factor into whether Halladay is traded before the July 31 deadline.

* The player Halladay is owed the balance of a $14.25-million (all currency U.S.) salary this year and $15.75-million next year, and he has a no-trade clause. He can become a free agent for the first time after the 2010 season. Many of his peers consider him to be the best pitcher in Baseball - think Roger Clemens without the baggage. Dan Haren of the Arizona Diamondbacks recently described himself as "a poor man's Roy Halladay." Jays catcher Michael Barrett (now at Triple-A Las Vegas), who caught Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy in San Diego, says there's no comparison: "Jake's thinking seven innings and lots of strikeouts, Roy's thinking complete game."

* The economy: Halladay would be most attractive to a contending team in a large market or a mid-sized market that sells out, such as St. Louis or Milwaukee - especially if the team had designs on signing him to an extension.

Major League Baseball has held up reasonably well during the recession, but there are signs of trouble. The Texas Rangers, who have ambition and prospects, have tapped Major League Baseball for a loan and are up for sale because of owner Tom Hicks's financial issues. The Chicago White Sox, whose general manager Ken Williams is nothing if not bold and who tried to trade for Peavy, told the Chicago Tribune yesterday that, "If I'm completely honest, money is more an issue, now. We expected a little more fan support than we have gotten ... the [Los Angeles] Dodgers series certainly was an eye-opener for us." The White Sox averaged just 21,000 for a three-game series against the traditionally strong draw.

* The trade value: The gold standard for these trades is the Cleveland Indians' theft of Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips from the Montreal Expos for Bartolo Colon in 2002. That's the blue-sky return for Halladay: a major-league-ready pitcher and player with less than three years experience, and one or two gilt-edged prospects. Pay no attention to what teams are saying about being in or out of the Halladay sweepstakes at this point. The Boston Red Sox were rumoured to be all over Johan Santana when he was available, but decided they'd hang on to their own prospects. The New York Yankees have already invested a ton of money in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and have Alex Rodriguez under contract through apparent perpetuity. The only way either of them get involved with Halladay, it says here, is if they think the other guy is sniffing around. Keep an eye on teams with solid attendance, creative GMs and a window of opportunity: the Brewers made the big splash last season by acquiring Sabathia and riding him to the postseason.

* The Blue Jays : The dream is over. The club has an interim president and chief executive officer (Paul Beeston), ownership that no longer operates on the whim of one man (the late Ted Rogers) and a more corporate M.O. than before. The club faces a revenue crunch this year and going forward, will be saddled by the lengthy and expensive contracts given to under-performing outfielders Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. In addition, while the Jays cut loose relief pitcher B.J. Ryan yesterday, they owe him the remainder of $12-million in 2009 salary and another $10-million next year. Ricciardi must be thinking about moving third baseman Scott Rolen - whose trade value hasn't been this high in years - as well as Halladay. Wells and Rios could only be dealt to a panicked and well-heeled buyer (hello there, Omar Minaya). Whether Ricciardi is the guy you'd want to make a big deal is moot - a Halladay transaction would owe as much to the input of assistant general managers Alex Anthopoulos and Tony LaCava. The guess here is manager Cito Gaston gets a say, and in that case third baseman Howie Kendrick would come to Toronto in any deal with the Angels.

* The end game: the Blue Jays have pitching depth, but there are issues at the back end of the bullpen and for all the good work from the likes of rookie starter Ricky Romero, the system lacks a bona fide, overpowering, No. 1 ace in the making. There is some catching depth in Brian Jeroloman and J.P. Arencibia and outfielder Travis Snider's ascent to stardom has only been slightly delayed. But with Rolen and first baseman Lyle Overbay gone after 2010 and Marco Scutaro possibly gone after this year, there are serious position issues. A power-hitting corner infielder would be almost a must in return. A Blue Jays source says that even if Ricciardi's back, the team will no longer be a major player in free agency as it was when it overpaid for Ryan and Burnett in 2005. So forget any scenario that sees Halladay leaving and returning in two years.

As for Halladay's end-game? He wants to win a World Series, and he might be the least disruptive star in sports. It's true that Halladay would carve up National League lineups. He'd also have to bat, and he's never seemed enthralled with that prospect in interleague play. If Halladay is thinking even slightly long-term he'll avoid the NL. He is a unique proposition for both seller and buyer.

Copyright 2009 The Globe and Mail, a division of CTVglobemedia Publishing Inc. All Rights Reserved
 
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