Angels, Yanks could be one for the ages

Get ready for one hell of an ALCS. You've got the two largest media markets in play, you've got bi-coastal tribalism, you've got two candidates for "Team of the Decade" honors, you've got two thunderous offenses, and — most of all — you've got the two best teams in baseball. Oh, and you've also got two teams coming off first-round redemption. The 97-win Angels, in defiance of ALDS history (coming in, they were 1-9 against the Red Sox in Division Series play), swept Boston out of the postseason, and the 103-win Yankees — after giving the three-game bum's rush to Minnesota — have advanced to the ALCS for the first time since 2004 (in Yankee Land, this qualifies as a "drought"). But enough about the back-stories. We're here to talk about what's going to happen when the colossus from the Bronx runs headlong into wrecking crew from the O.C. So let's break it down ...

Offense

"Strength on strength" almost undersells this one. In 2009, the Yankees paced baseball with 915 runs scored, and the Angels weren't far behind with 883. Early season hyperventilating aside, the new Yankee Stadium turned out to be not much more of a hitter's park than Angel Stadium. On that point, it's worth noting that this season the Yankees also out-scored the Angels in road games by a margin of 455 to 439. Also keep in mind that the Yanks' overall numbers reflect the April absence of Alex Rodriguez, who, you may have heard, is now healthy and hitting. On the other hand, Anaheim is also at its strongest right now. That's because future Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, the weak link in the first half, hit a nifty .300 AVG/.347 OBP/.498 SLG after the break. The Angel cause would be helped if manager Mike Scioscia allowed Mike Napoli to catch every game of the upcoming ALCS. However, history suggests that Napoli's banjo-hitting caddy, Jeff Mathis, will make at least one start. If you must, give a slight edge to the Yankees, but mostly this one's a push. There's simply no place to ease up, spots one through nine, in either lineup.

Rotation

The Yankees, in CC Sabathia, boast the best starting pitcher on either team, and he'll be able to make at least two starts in the ALCS. Give the Angels the edge in terms of depth, though. For example, remove Sabathia's numbers from the calculus, and the Yankees' rotation ERA stands at 4.84. Do the same with counterpart ace John Lackey's numbers, and the Angels' rotation ERA is 4.57. Once you get past the stoppers, it appears to be a modest advantage for 'Heim. Then again, who's to say which Scott Kazmir will show up, the one who dominated as an Angel during the regular season or the one who struggled against Boston in the ALDS? As well, the Yankees have, generally speaking, opposed tougher offenses this season, and that's not reflected in the numbers. Anyway, here's a best guess at how each team's four-man rotation would go ... Yankees: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Chad Gaudin. Angels: Lackey, Jered Weaver, Kazmir, Joe Saunders. That's not hard-and-fast, of course. The Yankees could surprise and plug Joba Chamberlain in the four hole, and the Angels could go with Ervin Santana instead of Saunders. In the latter instance, Mike Scioscia has a decision to make. This season, the Yanks have an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of .837 against right-handed pitching, and they have an OPS of .846 against lefties. Although that's not much of a spread, does Scioscia opt to take on the Yankees' strength and make Saunders the fifth man? Or does he seek out the slight advantage and start the right-hander Santana? Given how weak the Angel bullpen is from the right side (more on that in a moment), he might want to keep Santana in a relief role and risk throwing another lefty at the Yankees. The Angels, meanwhile, have been slightly less effective against left-handers this season. And we know they'll be facing a lefty at least twice in this series. If the series goes long enough, then Sabathia and Pettitte could make three or even four starts between them. That's perhaps a source of concern for the Angels. One other wrinkle worth keeping in mind: The ALCS schedule includes three off-days. The upshot is that if Yankee skipper Joe Girardi is feeling particularly bold (or particularly desperate), then he could start Sabathia in Game 1, in Game 4 on short rest, and then in a possible Game 7 on full rest. In four career starts on three days' rest, Sabathia has a cracking-good ERA of 1.01. Given the drop-off from Sabathia to every other pinstriped starter, it's a chance worth considering. That's also a way to keep the ball out of Gaudin's dubious hands for the entire series. Once again, this one's mostly a push.

Bullpen

This is not a difficult call. The Yankees' relief corps ranks a respectable fifth in the AL in bullpen ERA, while the Angels rank a grim 11th. New York, in Philip Hughes and Mariano Rivera, boasts the toughest setup-closer combo in all of baseball. The Angels' most effective reliever this season has been 38-year-old Darren Oliver. Anaheim closer Brian Fuentes has struggled with his consistency, and Jason Bulger has been the only quasi-useful arm from the right side. The Yankees would seem to lack a reliable lefty, but Phil Coke's only real weakness is the home run. Bobby Abreu, the lone true left-handed bat in the Anaheim lineup, is still a good hitter, but he doesn't have much power these days. And of the four regular Anaheim switch-hitters Coke might be summoned to turn around, only Erick Aybar shows more pop from the right side. In other words, the bullpen is a strong and clear advantage for New York.

Defense

In recent years, we've come to associate slick fielding with the Angels and not the Yankees. But has the 2009 season been an exception? Here's what the most advanced defensive metrics say about the two teams ... Defensive Efficiency: Yankees 5th, Angels 8th.
Ultimate zone rating: Angels 5th, Yankees 8th.
Plus/minus system: Yankees 3rd, Angels 8th. (Defensive Efficiency numbers courtesy of Baseball Prospectus, Ultimate Zone Rating courtesy of FanGraphs, and Plus/Minus courtesy of The Hardball Times.) It's a mixed bag, as you can see. Without a clear consensus, it's impossible to give a clear edge. However, we can give a narrow edge to the Yankees since they come out on top in two of the three measures.

Manager

Obviously, Scioscia has the stronger resume, but Joe Girardi has already proved he knows how to run a playoff bullpen (i.e., like Joe Torre before him, he's not afraid to call for Mariano Rivera in the eighth). With that said, Scioscia has him when it comes to experience, track record and laurels. How much does that matter? Quite a bit less than, say, offense, rotation, bullpen, and defense.

Prediction

Give the slightest, most marginal of nods to the Yankees because of the bullpen, defense and Sabathia. New York in seven. This one has the makings of a white-knuckled classic.