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Central has the arms to upset the East powers

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Jon Paul Morosi

Jon Paul Morosi is a national MLB writer for FOXSports.com. He previously covered baseball for the Detroit Free Press and Seattle Post-Intelligencer. He began his journalism career at the Bay City Times in his native Michigan. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Aug 4, 2009 11:58 AM ET
     
 

DETROIT

We interrupt the anticipation of an impending Red Sox-Yankees postseason series to remind you of one trifling detail.
The American League Central champion will very likely have a better starting rotation than either of the eastern titans. And I don't need to remind you of what that means in October. "These guys got pitching," Baltimore manager Dave Trembley said Monday, when asked about the recently fortified Chicago and Detroit staffs. "That's what wins pennants. The White Sox went out and got (Jake) Peavy. The Tigers got (Jarrod) Washburn, for a staff that's already one of the tops in the American League." So, could one of them beat Boston or New York this fall? "No question," Trembley replied. "Why not? They've got top-of-the-line starting pitchers." Two months ago, I wrote that Boston and New York would probably meet in the American League Championship Series. And I still believe they are the league's strongest teams. But the landscape has changed. Now, we know that Yankees right-hander Chien-Ming Wang will miss the rest of the season. Now, we know that Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, reportedly displeased with the team's training methods, is a long way from contributing again. And neither team traded for a starting pitcher last Friday, at the non-waiver trade deadline. Sergio Mitre, who has never won more than five games in a major league season, is currently New York's No. 5 starter. Andy Pettitte has an ERA near 5.00 since the beginning of June. Boston's Brad Penny and John Smoltz combined for a 6.71 ERA in July. Tim Wakefield is on the disabled list. Against that unstable backdrop, two bulletins clicked across the wires on Friday. The Tigers traded for Jarrod Washburn. Then the White Sox acquired Jake Peavy. Advantage: Middle America. I know, I know. Check the standings, moron. The Yankees have 63 wins, the Red Sox 62. The Angels have 63 and lead the West. Detroit (55-49) has the fewest victories of any first-place team in baseball — three shy of Tampa Bay, running third in the AL East. Chicago, at 54-52, is two games back. Minnesota is contending ... and added Orlando Cabrera at the deadline ... but has a losing record ... and probably won't have Kevin Slowey for the rest of the year. I'll grant you that the AL Central is the league's weakest division. And it's in a tight competition with the National League Central for the weakest-in-the-majors tag. But somebody is going to win it. And that somebody — probably the Tigers or White Sox, although we know not to dismiss the Twins — is going to have a rotation that terrifies any favorite in a best-of-five series. Why is that important? Well, barring a dramatic shift in the standings, the wild card will come from the East and play the Central champ in the first round. True, the Red Sox and Yankees have the more reliable late-inning relievers this year. But that's only significant if they're given leads to protect. And so far, the Detroit and Chicago rotations have performed better. That's in the numbers — to say nothing of the recent anecdotal evidence. In Chicago, Mark Buehrle threw a perfect game, while John Danks and Gavin Floyd have pitched more like their 2008 selves. In Detroit, Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson are having All-Star seasons, while rookie Rick Porcello responded well to the extended rest manager Jim Leyland provided him in mid-July. Now, add Peavy (after his ankle heals) and Washburn, respectively. Two pretty good postseason rotations, don't you think? Of course, only one of them will get there. "We did not make the deal for the postseason," Tigers club president/general manager Dave Dombrowski said Monday. "We made it to try and get to the postseason. If we are fortunate enough to make it, we will deal with that then." Dombrowski is as well-prepared as any executive in the game, but, like pretty much everyone else in baseball, he was surprised when White Sox GM Kenny Williams dealt for Peavy moments before Friday's trade deadline. Detroit's newest pitcher was, too. "I was surprised — especially since he (Peavy) vetoed it (earlier this season)," Washburn said Monday. "He's a great pitcher. If he gets healthy, I'm sure he'll be able to help them."
"Kenny Williams doesn't give up," said Buck Martinez, the former big league manager and current television analyst. "Kenny Williams is an excellent GM. He knows what he needed. When you're going to the postseason, power plays. Jake's a power pitcher." An informal poll of several scouts and executives on Monday yielded a split vote between the Tigers and White Sox as projected division champions. But many agreed that Peavy is the key. If he returns in late August, as the White Sox hope, Chicago will have a good chance. If he doesn't, Detroit probably prevails. "It all depends on Peavy," one executive said. One scout, though, acknowledged that it's difficult to argue against Detroit right now. When play began Monday, the Tigers' rotation featured three of the seven best ERAs in the American League: Washburn (2.64), Edwin Jackson (2.64) and Verlander (3.16). The Red Sox and Yankees — combined — currently have only two representatives among the top 15, Boston's Josh Beckett and New York's Joba Chamberlain. And while I'll grant you that starters in the East often pitch against very good lineups in smallish ballparks, I'm not sure why Baltimore rookie Brad Bergesen has a better ERA than anyone in the New York rotation. So, there you have it. I'm not ready to abandon my earlier prediction of a Red Sox-Yankees reunion in the American League Championship Series. But I'm tipping. (I can do that, right?) Check back with me in a month, when Peavy should be back on the mound ... or at least after Tuesday's game in Detroit, when Washburn is scheduled to make his Tigers debut. At the moment, I know this much: The Washburn trade has people in Detroit dreaming about what the pitching probables might look like come October — IF the Tigers are able to win what remains a three-team race. "We just have to get there," Detroit shortstop Adam Everett mused on Monday. I suspect they're uttering the same words on the South Side.
Tagged: Josh Beckett, John Danks, Brad Penny, Orioles, Rick Porcello, Red Sox, Angels, Gavin Floyd, White Sox, Tigers, Brad Bergesen, Edwin Jackson, Justin Verlander, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Mark Buehrle, Chien-Ming Wang, Twins, Jake Peavy, Yankees, Adam Everett, Joba Chamberlain, Kevin Slowey, Orlando Cabrera

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