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Hard to get playoff handle on enigmatic Red Sox

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Sean McAdam

Updated Sep 30, 2009 1:12 PM ET
     
 
One hundred fifty-seven games into the 2009 season, the Boston Red Sox remain something of an enigma. Are they the team that sprinted out in front of the division early or the one that will probably finish at least a half-dozen games out of first? Are they the team that beat the New York Yankees in the first eight meetings or the one that dropped nine of the past 10? Only a week or so ago, scouts and executives were touting the Red Sox as a team with the ability to win their third World Series since 2004. But that was before the Sox were swept by the Yankees, then dropped two straight at home to a Toronto team playing out the string. And, for that matter, before minor injuries to their top two starters, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. So, who are the Red Sox, exactly? October will tell us all we need to know. For now, we offer three reasons to fear the Red Sox ... and three more that should scare the Sox themselves.

Reasons to fear them

Dominant starting pitching

Lester and Beckett could be the postseason's best 1-2 punch. Beckett was a World Series MVP in 2003 with Florida and is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in the postseason. Lester is 2-2 with a 1.95 ERA as a postseason starter. Together, they've already won 30 games and posted nearly 420 strikeouts this year and their stuff — Lester from the left side, Beckett from the right — can be downright filthy. Beyond their top two, Clay Buchholz had pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA over the last month until being rocked by Toronto Tuesday night and even Daisuke Matsuzaka (one run in seven innings against the Yankees last weekend) has sparkled, offering the promise of additional depth for the later rounds.

Postseason grit and experience

The Red Sox have been to the playoffs every year but once since 2003, and even their younger players — Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Lester — have been battle-tested. "That counts for something," said an executive with another American League team. "None of those guys is going to be overwhelmed." Moreover, the Red Sox have proven to be a remarkably resilient bunch. Since Terry Francona became manager in 2004, the Red Sox are a staggering 9-2 when facing the prospect of going home for good. That experience and fortitude shouldn't be discounted.

Jonathan Papelbon

In the postseason, closers tend to play an even larger role in determining a team's success than in the regular season. Papelbon, with less than five full years of service time, has already established himself as an October monster. In 16 appearances, covering 25 innings, Papelbon has yet to allow an earned run. What's more, he seems to have peaked at the right time. After a shaky first half in which he struggled with his command while making some adjustments to tighten his delivery, Papelbon has been almost unhittable. Since July 30, he has allowed just 15 hits in 22 innings with 29 strikeouts and four walks while converting all 11 save opportunities.

Reasons they should be in fear

Health

The Sox saw firsthand last October how costly it can be to go into the postseason at less than 100 percent strength. Injuries to Beckett (oblique) and Mike Lowell (hip) might have cost them a second straight AL pennant. This season, the injuries aren't as significant, but in the past two weeks alone, Lester (right knee-quad), Beckett (back), Lowell (hip again), Hideki Okajima (side) and Kevin Youkilis (back) have suffered injuries, and all but Lester have missed time. There is still more than a week to go before Game 1 of the ALDS, time enough to heal, but in the final week of the season, the Sox have more physical concerns — however relatively minor — than they would like to admit.

Road woes

While fearsome at home, the Red Sox finished a thoroughly mediocre 39-42 away from Fenway Park. And as the wild-card entry, they won't have home-field advantage unless they win the pennant and reach the World Series. True, under the playoff format, they'll never have to play more than two games in a row on the road, minimizing the wear and tear. And until being swept at Yankee Stadium, the Sox had won 12 of 19 over the past five weeks. But it surely must be of some concern that they went a combined 9-13 on the road against the Yanks, Angels, Twins and Tigers — their four potential opponents in the first two rounds.

The running game

The Red Sox have been helpless to stop teams on the base paths at times. Just last week, the Yankees stole seven bases in a game. It marked the third time — by the third team — this season that opponents had stolen seven or more bases in a single game. Teams have run wild on Jason Varitek, who has thrown out just 16 of 123 would-be base stealers, and while Varitek's playing time will diminish in the postseason in favor of Victor Martinez, the fact remains the Red Sox staff hasn't done a good job holding runners all year. That sound you hear is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, their first-round opponent, licking their lips in anticipation.
Tagged: Victor Martinez, Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox, Jacoby Ellsbury, Angels, Tigers, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jason Varitek, Kevin Youkilis, Twins, Jon Lester, Hideki Okajima, Yankees, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz

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