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History favors the Twins on Tuesday

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Jon Paul Morosi

Jon Paul Morosi is a national MLB writer for FOXSports.com. He previously covered baseball for the Detroit Free Press and Seattle Post-Intelligencer. He began his journalism career at the Bay City Times in his native Michigan. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Oct 5, 2009 4:33 AM ET
     
 

DETROIT

They were the hotter team. They were playing at home. And so it wasn't a surprise when the Colorado Rockies won the one-game playoff for the National League wild card in 2007, even though it took 13 innings.

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So, what was more important — that the San Diego Padres had to travel to Coors Field, or that the Rockies had won 13 of their previous 14 games? "I believe both factored in heavily," Dan O'Dowd, the Colorado general manager, recalled Sunday night. "We were on an historic run, but I am not sure how it might have played out if we went on the road. "It was a very electric, emotional atmosphere. Our players fed off of that." The Chicago White Sox hosted the Minnesota Twins in a one-game playoff last year. The home team won then, too. In fact, of the five one-game playoffs in the Wild Card Era, the hosts have won four. And that suggests the Minnesota Twins are well-positioned to beat the Tigers on Tuesday and win the American League Central title. The game will be played at the Metrodome, which welcomed howling crowds of 40,223, 48,644 and 51,155 during the recently-completed weekend sweep of the Kansas City Royals.
The Twins' 13-4 victory on Sunday was supposed to serve as the sendoff for indoor baseball in Minnesota. Not anymore. There will be diamond dust on the fake grass for at least one more tympanum-rattling day. "I'm sure most people don't give us much of a chance," Detroit manager Jim Leyland said. "But we'll see." "Might want to put your earplugs in," third baseman Brandon Inge said. "I can remember days when I was catching — the helmet would ring your ears, the echoes were so loud." There are series in the regular season and series in the postseason. But Tuesday's game will stand alone. The pitching probables will show two names only. It's the one event on the baseball calendar with football-style importance: single game, single elimination. "One game," Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander said Sunday, after winning his 19th game of the year. "You can't think about what could have been, what happened. You have to think about what will be." Both teams have reason to be confident. With the Twins, it's easier to see why. They are 48-33 at home this year, including 7-2 against the Tigers. They closed the season on a 16-4 run. Detroit was a modest 10-10. But the Tigers were impressively loose on Sunday morning and clearly relieved by the afternoon. After leading the division by seven games on Sept. 6, they didn't complete a collapse at home. Detroit fans cheered enthusiastically after the game, thanking players for their efforts during the year. If we're looking for historical comparisons to Tuesday's matchup, the most apt might be the 1995 American League West playoff between the Seattle Mariners and California Angels. Like the Tigers, the Angels had a big lead, lost it, but then won on the final day of the regular season. That offered them one more shot at a division title that once seemed certain to be theirs. Unfortunately for the Angels, that chance came against Randy Johnson at a noisy Kingdome. The Mariners won, 9-1. Of course, Scott Baker isn't quite the Big Unit. Baker leads the Twins with 15 victories, but he hasn't had a quality start (six-plus innings, three or fewer earned runs) in four outings against Detroit this season. He escaped Comerica Park with a victory last Thursday despite throwing 105 pitches in five unspectacular innings. Detroit's starting pitcher — Rookie of the Year candidate Rick Porcello — has better pure stuff than Baker but less experience. Porcello, an uncommonly mature 20-year-old, leads all major league rookies with 14 wins and has been the Tigers' second-best starter (after Justin Verlander) since the All-Star break. "He's not going to be scared — I know that," Leyland said. "I expect he'll do well." Spend enough time around Leyland, and he will invariably tell you that a team's momentum is as good as its next starting pitcher. In that important respect, I believe the Tigers have an advantage. I'd be very tempted to pick the Tigers, if the game were in Detroit or at a neutral site. But the Metrodome — which Leyland called "the loudest place I've ever been" — is hardly a neutral site. The Twins have played better than the Tigers over the past several weeks, and they will have one of the game's best home-field advantages working in their favor. They should be confident, and I'm sure that they are. "What could be more fitting than to close this season out in front of the fans that supported us with so much spirit?" the manager asked. "We're going back to the Thunderdome, the Horrordome." Those aren't the words of Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. They could be found in the Oct. 2, 1995, editions of the Seattle Times. They came from Lou Piniella, some 24 hours before his team celebrated at a loud, happy dome.
Tagged: Padres, Giants, Rockies, Rick Porcello, Angels, White Sox, Tigers, Justin Verlander, Brandon Inge, Twins, Mariners, Scott Baker

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