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Jays have a lot to gain by letting Rios go

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Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since August 2005. He appears weekly on MLB on FOX. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Aug 9, 2009 5:28 PM ET
     
 
One rationale for the Blue Jays keeping right fielder Alex Rios is that they cannot squander two of their assets, receiving little or nothing in a waiver deal for Rios after failing to trade right-hander Roy Halladay.
Hogwash. The Jays would gain significantly even if the White Sox — the team that is widely believed to have claimed Rios on waivers — refused to part with any players for him. Allowing Rios to depart would be the right baseball decision, freeing up tens of millions that the Jays could spend on other players in a depressed marketplace. The "trade" would not be Rios for whatever meager package the White Sox might offer. The "trade" would be for the $58.7 million that Rios is guaranteed from 2010 to '14, an average of nearly $12 million per year. Know what a team could have bought for $12 million last offseason? Outfielder Bobby Abreu, second baseman Orlando Hudson, first baseman Russell Branyan and shortstop Adam Everett — and still had $800,000 to spare. Granted, all of those players are outperforming their salaries; they were among the best bargains on the market. The economy, too, eventually figures to improve, leading to an accompanying rise in salaries. Still, teams are not going to resume spending big anytime soon, if at all. The free-agent market this offseason could be even more of a buyer's delight than last winter. The Jays maintain that they are not under financial pressure to dump payroll. Their refusal to accept an insufficient offer for Halladay, who is owed the rest of his $14.25 million salary this season and $15.75 million next season, supports that claim. The question with Rios, then, is strictly baseball. The Jays would be moving Rios when his value is lowest. If they wait for him to rebound, they might actually get a strong return — maybe not this offseason, but perhaps at the next non-waiver deadline or even in two or three years. Then again, haven't the Jays already waited long enough? Rios, 28, ranks 10th in OPS among the 12 American League right fielders with enough plate appearances to qualify for the league leaders. He has regressed offensively in each of the past two seasons. Yet, the teams that like Rios — and the White Sox have had a longstanding interest in him — are enamored with his 30-home run, 30-stolen base potential and ability to play center field. Rios' offensive profile is more suited for center; Rios' .754 OPS is comparable to Jacoby Ellsbury's. His contract also would offer more value if he played in the middle of the diamond. Nevermind Rios' current defensive performance; after finishing in the top four in each of the previous three seasons, he has dropped to 22nd among right fielders in the plus-minus ratings according to Bill James Online. Put him in center, and he might elevate his entire game. Frankly, the only way the Jays should consider keeping Rios is if they put him in center themselves. Vernon Wells, 35th among center fielders in the plus-minus ratings, would be in no position to argue. It's not like when the Indians had Franklin Gutierrez and were reluctant to move Grady Sizemore, a lesser defender, out of center. Sizemore is his team's franchise player. Wells has not held that distinction since 2006, even though his seven-year $126 million contract suggests otherwise. The Wells deal, which does not expire until '14, is actually one more reason for the Jays to part with Rios. Wells, 30, is immovable; the Jays are stuck with him. Rios' contract is less oppressive, but the two deals combined are suffocating for a team with a declining payroll. The Jays cannot look at this opportunity in the traditional sense. They will be criticized in some quarters if they receive a minimal or no return for Rios, but who cares? This would be a "trade" with a different kind of gain.
Tagged: Russell Branyan, Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox, Franklin Gutierrez, Angels, Bobby Abreu, White Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers, Dodgers, Grady Sizemore, Adam Everett, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Mariners, Orlando Hudson

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