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Lincecum wins second Cy, no thanks to me

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Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since August 2005. He appears weekly on MLB on FOX. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Nov 19, 2009 8:01 PM ET
     
 
I voted for Adam Wainwright for the National League Cy Young award, but I'm entirely comfortable with Tim Lincecum winning it.
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The race, as many predicted, was one of the closest in the award's history. I went back and forth among Wainwright, Lincecum and Chris Carpenter in the final weeks of the season. Entering the final weekend, I was ready to cast my ballot for Carpenter. I ultimately chose Wainwright. And looking at it again now, maybe I should have stuck with Lincecum all along. My ballot looked like this: 1. Wainwright. 2. Lincecum. 3. Carpenter. Carpenter had the lowest ERA by nearly a quarter of a run; Lincecum was second, but pitched 32 2/3 more innings. Ultimately, I leaned against Carpenter because of the five weeks that he missed with a strained left ribcage muscle early in the season. Two voters — Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law of ESPN.com — left Carpenter off their ballots entirely for that reason. I don't agree with their logic, but understand it. The more a pitcher works, the greater his value. So, why did I choose Wainwright over Lincecum? Well, I can't say it was statistics. Wainwright had 19 wins to Lincecum's 15, but voters finally are grasping that victory totals hinge in part on run support and bullpen support — factors well outside a starter's control. Zack Grienke won the AL Cy with 16 wins, and his triumph, too, was well-deserved. Wainwright had a slight edge in innings, Lincecum had better peripheral and advanced numbers. Yet, several people I trust in the game thought Wainwright was the more consistent pitcher. That is a subjective view, but Wainwright certainly finished stronger. Lincecum went 3-4 with a 3.40 ERA in his last eight starts. Only two of those starts were subpar, but one was a four-inning, five-run performance on a hot late-September day in Los Angeles when the Giants were fighting to stay in the race. Wainwright, on the other hand, was 11-3 with a 1.90 ERA in his final 18 starts, helping lift the Cardinals to the NL Central title. My argument, I know, is perhaps too simplistic; games in August and September are technically no more important than those early in the season. But, as I wrote initially, sound, logical arguments existed for each candidate. Ultimately, I just felt Wainwright's consistency from Game 1 to Game 162 set him apart. No one should say Wainwright or Carpenter was robbed; the voters, at the most basic level, made the right call. It was an incredible, fascinating race, one that might be debated for years. Even now, I still am not sure I made the right call.
Tagged: Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Giants, Cardinals

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