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Phillies have lost edge, so expect Rockies to win

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Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since August 2005. He appears weekly on MLB on FOX. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Oct 6, 2009 1:37 PM ET
     
 
If the Phillies were the Phillies of May or even July, I would pick them not only to beat the Rockies, but also to win their second straight World Series.
But the Phillies are not the same team they were earlier this season. They are a team with questionable starting pitching, a bullpen in disarray and an offense that lost some of its edge. Maybe they were bored in September. Maybe they simply need a challenge. But the Rockies are currently the better team, whether or not left-hander Jorge De La Rosa is healthy enough to start Game 3. Much of the pre-series analysis will center around the Rockies' difficulty against left-handed pitching, their 26-26 record in games started by lefties compared with their 66-44 mark in games started by righties. I don't buy it. One, lefties are not that big an issue for the Rockies — their .765 OPS against them ranked fourth in the NL. Two, the Rockies faced four lefties in the final week of the regular season, and the Dodgers' terrific Clayton Kershaw started the only game they did not win. Three — and most significant — the Phillies' top lefties, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, are not pitching all that well. Lee, one scout says, showed diminished command while compiling a 6.13 ERA in his last seven regular-season starts — not a surprise, considering he has pitched a career-high 231 2/3 innings. Hamels' fastball velocity is 88 to 91 mph, not the 90 to 94 it was last season, the scout says. His changeup is not getting the same number of swings and misses. J.A. Happ, the Phillies' likely Game 4 starter? He threw 11 1/3 scoreless innings against the Rockies in the regular season. But the Rockies beat a similar pitcher, Dodgers lefty Randy Wolf, Friday night. The Rockies' big left-handed hitters, right fielder Brad Hawpe and first baseman Todd Helton, are less effective against lefties, but not awful. Garrett Atkins, a right-handed hitter, can replace Ian Stewart at third. Dexter Fowler, a switch-hitter who hits lefties well, can start over Carlos Gonzalez or Seth Smith in the outfield. The Phillies are much less left-handed in their bullpen — Scott Eyre is their only experienced lefty reliever. They actually need to clone Happ so they can use one of him in the rotation and one in the bullpen. But that is not going to happen, and good luck to manager Charlie Manuel sorting through his late-inning relief. A blown save in Game 1 — by Ryan Madson, Brad Lidge, whomever — would produce an immediate crisis. An eruption by the Phillies' offense obviously would give both their rotation and bullpen more margin for error, but why should anyone believe it's coming? The Phillies averaged 5.39 runs per game through July, 4.52 per game after Aug. 1. Second baseman Chase Utley, who batted .204 in September and again might be playing hurt, is a particular concern.
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I know, I know — the Rockies aren't exactly perfect, either. They set a franchise record for strikeouts, finishing with the second- highest rate in the NL. The loss of De La Rosa, who is fighting a groin injury, would make fading right-hander Jason Marquis their Game 3 starter. And the sudden decline of lefty reliever Franklin Morales could rob the team of an important late-inning weapon against the Phillies' big left-handed hitters — Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. The Phillies actually had a higher OPS against lefties than righties in the regular season — Howard is their only left-handed hitter who is truly vulnerable against lefties. Still, Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is a decent bet to erase the Phillies' home-field advantage in Game 1. And righty Aaron Cook could be a monster if his sinker is on in Game 2. The Rockies, after getting off to an 18-28 start, finished with only one fewer win than the Phillies in the regular season despite playing in a more competitive division. I love the Phillies, but not in their current state. Rockies in five.
Tagged: Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Cook, Rockies, Franklin Morales, Jason Marquis, Cliff Lee, Carlos Gonzalez, Raul Ibanez, Ian Stewart, Dodgers, Ryan Madson, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Randy Wolf, Todd Helton, Phillies, Brad Lidge, Jorge De La Rosa, Brad Hawpe

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