Lee should be difference for Rangers

SAN FRANCISCO

First off, the wrong guy is writing this column.

Jon Paul Morosi picked both the Giants and Rangers to be in the World Series at the start of the postseason. He also picked the Giants to go to the Series at the start of the regular season. He is a savant when it comes to predictions. I am the village idiot, throwing darts blindfolded.

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I didn’t pick the Giants to beat the Phillies. I didn’t pick the Rangers to beat the Rays or the Yankees. And now I’m quaking as I write this, knowing that I underestimated both these clubs, questioning every aspect of my existence.

The Rangers would appear to be the favorites. They feature an offense that is deep, potent and versatile. They already have eliminated the supposed best teams in baseball, the Rays and Yankees. And holy heavens, they’ve got Cliff Lee, he of the 7-0 record, 1.26 ERA and 67-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio the last two postseasons.

The Giants? Hmmm.

They have outscored their opponents by only one run in the playoffs while the Rangers have outscored theirs by 27. In 10 postseason games, the Giants are batting .231/.296/.330. Take away Cody Ross, and their slash line looks even more absurd — .221/.284/.278. Only one qualifying hitter, the Orioles’ Cesar Izturis, had a lower OPS in the regular season.

There is only one way to win with such an “attack,” and that’s to pitch like crazy. The Giants obviously have done it in October. But they also did it for much of September, too.

In fact, they have allowed just 80 runs in their last 36 games, including the postseason. Take away a 10-9 loss in Coors Field on Sept. 26, and the numbers drop to 70 runs in 35 games — two stinkin’ runs per game, and not a small sample, either.

The question, then, is whether the Giants can extend their run of remarkable pitching for one more series. A cynic would suggest that they dominated feeble NL West offenses in September, then the depleted Braves in the Division Series, then the overrated Phillies in the NLCS.

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But at this point, only a fool would sell the Giants short.

The Giants’ plan cannot be as simple as keeping leadoff man Elvis Andrus off base or avoiding cleanup man Josh Hamilton; the Rangers have too many weapons. But Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero and Co. are not without holes. The Giants’ advance scouting reports — and their pitchers’ ability to follow them — will play a major role in this series.

The problem, at least on paper, is that the Rangers already lead two games to none, thanks to Lee. Lincecum will have even less margin for error against Lee than he did against the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. The Giants split the two games started by Halladay. Lincecum pitched well in both.

Much as I like the Rangers’ Colby Lewis and C.J. Wilson, the Giants’ rotation looks deeper. I also prefer the Giants’ bullpen, though it alarmed me that manager Bruce Bochy ignored his entire right-handed setup corps in Game 6 of the NLCS, using Lincecum as his setup man and closer Brian Wilson for a five-out save.

Wilson certainly is more experienced than the Rangers’ Neftali Feliz. Left-hander Javier Lopez could prove an effective late-inning counter to Hamilton. But Bochy also will need to get outs from right-handers Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez against the Rangers’ predominantly right-handed lineup.

The Rangers’ bullpen, a horror show against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS, ranked second in the AL in ERA during the regular season. Lefty Derek Holland again will be a weapon in long relief, particularly if righty Tommy Hunter stumbles in Game 4. And remember, the Giants are the opponent now. Lesser NL competition.

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On the other hand . . .

A’s general manager Billy Beane once described the playoffs as a “crapshoot,” and this postseason has proved yet again that truer words were never spoken. The World Series could be another trap, appearing to set up in the Rangers’ favor, but ultimately tilting toward the Giants.

I don’t know how that would happen, mind you, but the Giants have developed a unique knack for winning — and winning close games. Maybe they will pitch well enough to pull off another upset in the Series. Or maybe they finally will be overmatched by a superior team.

I’m guessing the latter, but at this point, who knows?

Probably only Morosi, and he’s picking the Giants in 7.

That’s it, then.

Rangers in 6.