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Plenty of tough choices ahead for Epstein, BoSox

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Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since August 2005. He appears weekly on MLB on FOX. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Nov 13, 2009 1:39 PM ET
     
 
The Red Sox will need to reload after next season, when pitcher Josh Beckett, catcher Victor Martinez, third baseman Mike Lowell and designated hitter David Ortiz all could be free agents. But why wait? General manager Theo Epstein should start the process now. Beckett might want a bigger contract than the Sox are willing to offer him. The Padres might want more for first baseman Adrian Gonzalez than the Sox can give up in a trade. Two stars the Sox covet — Twins catcher Joe Mauer and Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez — might stay with their current teams. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are bracing for another delicate transition, not unlike the one that took place between their World Series titles in 2004 and '07. The easy, paint-by-numbers strategy would be to sign Beckett to an extension, trade for Gonzalez and re-sign free-agent left fielder Jason Bay. If the Sox can pull all that off, OK. But Epstein, no doubt, is weighing alternate plans. He has no choice, given the number of variables and obstacles involved. The Sox do not want to go five years on Bay. They will balk at giving Beckett an A.J. Burnett-type contract. And, because they are thin in major-league ready prospects, they probably cannot obtain Gonzalez without giving up quality young major leaguers. Hernandez might require an even greater haul, assuming the Mariners are even willing to move him, which is doubtful. The M's want to sign Hernandez long-term. They have the resources to do it. And Hernandez's agent, Alan Nero, has worked with the team previously on clients ranging from Randy Johnson to Edgar Martinez, Lou Piniella to Kenji Johjima. For the Red Sox to make a realistic push for Gonzalez or Hernandez and still maintain a core of young talent, they need to add more prospects. Signing Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman, 21, would be a start — and the Sox hardly are shy about using their financial might to exploit the international market. Trading Beckett and/or closer Jonathan Papelbon, while painful to consider, also could serve the team's greater long-term good.
Yes, I'm talking about a possible step back competitively — not an easy thing to do for a franchise that sells out every game and answers to a "Nation" of rabid followers. Maybe Epstein could pull off the transition seamlessly, taking the kids he acquired for Beckett, adding a few of his own youngsters and coming up with Hernandez, like some kind of baseball magician. Chances are, it would not be that easy. Privately, the Sox acknowledge that they cannot field a good young team again until 2012. By then, top prospects such as center fielder Ryan Westmoreland and pitcher/shortstop Casey Kelly should be ready, and players such as second baseman Dustin Pedroia, left-hander Jon Lester and right-hander Clay Buchholz will be in their primes. The trick for Epstein is to get from here to there while keeping the team as strong as possible. The Red Sox, drawing on vast financial resources, maintain a huge edge over low-revenue clubs such as the Rays, who must win while their windows are open, or else. But even the Sox go through cycles. The Yankees, when their older stars begin to fade, will, too. The Red Sox could benefit from the sudden willingness of financially strapped clubs such as the Tigers and Reds to trade high-priced veterans. Both those teams, however, are not simply looking to dump salaries. They want young, affordable talent in return, talent that will allow them to better compete in the future. The Sox are looking for the same thing, but the value of young talent continues to rise, making prospect trades increasingly difficult to pull off. So, while trading Beckett is an idea worth exploring, signing him at the right price is probably a better option. Beckett, 29, is proven in Boston, more durable than he was earlier in his career. True, the free-agent market for top starting pitchers is thin. But the Red Sox's chances of getting a killer return for Beckett would be diminished by the availability of an even better pitcher — Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay, who also is entering the final year of his contract. Trading Papelbon, too, would be problematic; the Sox do not yet know if Daniel Bard can adequately replace him. The free-agent market is flooded with late-inning relievers, and the White Sox's Bobby Jenks, Reds' Francisco Cordero and Indians' Kerry Wood are among the trade possibilities. None of the available closers is as good as Papelbon. But none would cost as much in prospects, either. So, what exactly would the Sox get? So many moving parts. So many options to consider. The Sox still need a short-term shortstop to form a bridge to Kelly or Cuban defector Jose Iglesias. They need a long-term catcher regardless of whether they keep Martinez beyond this season. And they must continue trying to duplicate what they once had with Ortiz and Manny Ramirez; re-signing Bay and trading for Gonzalez would seem a reasonable solution. The alarm bells for a well-heeled team such as the Sox ring only so loud, especially when next year's free-agent class could include Mauer, Rays left fielder Carl Crawford and Nationals DH-in-waiting Adam Dunn, plus Halladay and Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee. Well, the Sox cannot buy them all. They will not want to buy them all. Epstein's creativity is about to be tested again.
Tagged: Padres, Giants, Victor Martinez, Josh Beckett, Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Bobby Jenks, David Ortiz, Rays, Francisco Cordero, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Reds, Carl Crawford, Daniel Bard, Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Twins, Nationals, Dustin Pedroia, Felix Hernandez, Yankees, Phillies, Mariners, Kerry Wood, Clay Buchholz

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