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Real offseason intrigue is about to begin

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Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since August 2005. He appears weekly on MLB on FOX. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Nov 24, 2009 11:39 PM ET
     
 
On Tuesday, the offseason intrigue begins for real.

News and notes

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi have their fingers on the pulse of the MLB offseason news. Get all the latest notes from around the league.
That's the day teams must offer salary arbitration to their free agents to protect their rights to draft-pick compensation. For teams with elite free agents — Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, John Lackey — the decision is easy. Such players are in high demand, and the risk of them accepting arbitration and returning on monster one-year deals is minimal. Lesser Type As who make sense for their clubs short-term — Blue Jays shortstop Marco Scutaro and Giants catcher Bengie Molina, to name two examples — also are strong candidates for arbitration offers. The trickier decisions are with certain Type As who might view a one-year, non-guaranteed arbitration offer as better than anything they can get on the open market. Teams that offer arbitration to Type As and lose them are assured of the signing team's first- or second-round choice, plus a compensation pick between the first two rounds. Teams that offer arbitration to Type Bs can gain a pick, but the signing club does not forfeit one. Only two players accepted arbitration last offseason — Darren Oliver, a Type A left-handed reliever with the Angels, and David Weathers, a Type B right-handed reliever who was then with the Reds. The number of acceptances, however, could grow this offseason if players and their agents fear a repeat of last winter's sluggish market. Of the 22 remaining Type A free agents — John Grabow, a left-handed reliever, re-signed with the Cubs — here are the most interesting cases, along with predictions of whether the player will receive arbitration offers.

Billy Wagner, left-handed reliever: YES.

Wagner's agent, Bean Stringfellow, has said that the pitcher might accept arbitration, but the Sox are unlikely to relent and allow Wagner to become an unrestricted free agent. The Sox refused to yield their right to offer Wagner arbitration when they persuaded him to waive his no-trade clause in August. High-revenue clubs can afford such hits; the Sox would welcome Wagner back as a setup man on a one-year deal.

Orlando Hudson, second base: NO.

The Dodgers gave up the 17th pick in the 2009 draft to sign Hudson last winter. If they decline to offer him arbitration, they will not recoup the pick they lost. The problem, from the Dodgers' perspective, is that Hudson earned nearly $8 million last season, including incentives. The maximum 20 percent paycut rule does not apply to free agents in arbitration, but the Dodgers realistically could not roll back Hudson. They might have benched him in favor of Ron Belliard down the stretch, but Hudson still was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner last season.

Orlando Cabrera, shortstop: NO.

This one is easy: Cabrera's contract states that he cannot be offered arbitration as a Type A free agent. His market crumbled after the White Sox made him such an offer last offseason, and he wound up signing a one-year, $4 million deal with the A's. By including the "no offer" clause in Cabrera's contract with the A's, his agents at the Beverly Hills Sports Council shrewdly ensured that such a scenario would not happen again.

Jose Valverde, closer. Unclear.

If the Astros offer Valverde arbitration, the worst-case scenario is that he will accept and return as their closer next season for a salary in the $10 million range. That number might be too high for owner Drayton McLane, even for one year. The Astros, though, lack an obvious replacement for Valverde, who missed six weeks with a right calf strain in the first half but went 17-for-17 in save opportunities with a 1.64 ERA after the All- Star Game. Of course, McLane does not like paying draft picks either, so maybe he will just pass on an arbitration offer rather than risk having to pay another first-round pick in addition to the No. 8 selection overall next year.

Rafael Betancourt, right-handed reliever. YES.

The Rockies declined Betancourt's $5.4 million option, believing they could secure him at a lower salary by offering him arbitration. Betancourt earned $3.35 million last season. If he lands a multi-year deal with another club, the Rockies will simply collect their two picks.

Rafael Soriano, right-handed reliever; Mike Gonzalez, left-handed reliever. YES.

One agent speculated that the Braves would offer Gonzalez arbitration but not Soriano, adding, "they should offer both." Gonzalez is coming off a lower salary — $3.45 million to Soriano's $6.1 million — but both pitchers figure to be in demand on the open market. The Yankees and Red Sox are among the teams believed to have interest. Thus, the Braves would appear to have little to lose by offering both arbitration. They could end up with two quality relievers on one-year deals — or as many as four high picks.

Placido Polanco, second base. NO.

The Tigers are in cost-cutting mode, and rookie Scott Sizemore looms as an internal replacement despite recently undergoing surgery on his left ankle. Perhaps the Tigers could offer arbitration to Polanco, a Gold Glove winner, if they saved money by trading catcher Gerald Laird or right-hander Edwin Jackson before Tuesday. But such a scenario appears unlikely.
Tagged: Gerald Laird, Matt Holliday, Michael Gonzalez, Giants, Rockies, Darren Oliver, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Braves, Marco Scutaro, Cubs, Tigers, Edwin Jackson, John Lackey, Astros, John Grabow, Dodgers, Yankees, Jason Bay

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