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This time, Angels might run wild on Red Sox

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Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since August 2005. He appears weekly on MLB on FOX. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Oct 5, 2009 10:13 PM ET
     
 
One-hundred sixty-seven baserunners attempted to steal against the Red Sox this season. Only 16 were caught. The Red Sox's "success rate" of 9.6 percent was the third worst in the majors since 1974, according to STATS LLC. If you believe in the Angels — and I do — that is where you start. The only way for the Red Sox to stop the Angels' running game is to keep the Angels' hitters — particularly leadoff man Chone Figgins — off the bases. I'm not sure the Sox's rotation, in its present state, is good enough to do that. The Red Sox rate a clear edge in the bullpen — an edge so significant, it might negate every perceived Angels advantage. But how healthy is Josh Beckett? How nervous will Clay Buchholz be in his first postseason? How much can the Sox trust Daisuke Matsuzaka if they pitch him in Game 4, with the other option being ace left-hander Jon Lester on short rest? At the very least, these are valid questions. Yes, the Angels went a combined 1-9 against the Sox in the 2004, '07 and '08 Division Series. Yes, the Red Sox spook the Angels the way the Angels spook the Yankees. Still, this series should be different. The Angels scored more runs than the Sox in the regular season, something they did not do in '04, '07 and '08. Their starting rotation, boosted by the addition of left-hander Scott Kazmir, is at least as formidable as the Red Sox's.
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And their running game, which produced 15 stolen bases in 17 attempts in the season series, could reverse the Sox's psychological advantage once and for all. The Sox's inability to throw out opposing base stealers is far more of a problem than it was the three previous times these teams met in the postseason. In '08, the Sox succeeded in throwing out 22 percent of runners. In '07 the rate was 22.5 percent; in '04, 18 percent. Those percentages all were below average. But 9.6 percent? That's practically helpless. The counter-argument — and it's a good one — is that the Sox's offense is equally capable of tormenting the Angels' pitching staff, only in a different way. The Sox will be in their familiar mode, running up pitch counts, trying to force the opposing starter out of the game. If John Lackey, Jered Weaver and Kazmir succumb, this series could end as quickly as the previous three between these teams. The uncertainty surrounding Angels right-hander Jason Bulger, who received a cortisone shot for biceps tendinitis Sunday, only will increase the pressure on his fellow rookie, setup man Kevin Jepsen. In the matchup of closers, Sox righty Jonathan Papelbon vs. Angels lefty Brian Fuentes is simply not close. Angels right-hander Ervin Santana, who pitched in relief in the 2005 and '07 playoffs, could play a pivotal role. But the Red Sox boast three relievers — Papelbon, righty Daniel Bard and lefty Billy Wagner — who are more overpowering than any of their Angels' counterparts. And righty Takashi Saito had a 1.08 ERA after the All-Star break. One other thing: The Red Sox, playing in the AL East, face a higher degree of difficulty than the Angels in the regular season. Yet, they finished with a better run differential than the Angels — an indication that, just as in '04, '07 and '08, they might simply be a better team. I get that, but the difference between the clubs this time does not appear terribly significant, and the Sox's handicap against the running game tilts the matchup in the Angels' favor. Hello, law of averages. Angels in 5.
Tagged: Jason Bulger, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox, Angels, Ervin Santana, Takashi Saito, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Chone Figgins, John Lackey, Daniel Bard, Clay Buchholz

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