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Twins-Tigers race figures to go to the wire

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Jon Paul Morosi

Jon Paul Morosi is a national MLB writer for FOXSports.com. He previously covered baseball for the Detroit Free Press and Seattle Post-Intelligencer. He began his journalism career at the Bay City Times in his native Michigan. Follow him on Twitter.

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Updated Sep 28, 2009 11:46 PM ET
     
 

DETROIT

Surely, pre-algebra students everywhere are picking the Tigers to win the American League Central. They have a two-game lead with seven to play. The odds are in their favor. They are supposed to win.
Me? I'm prepared to submit the following two statements. 1. As big as this four-gamer appears to be — and I'm counting on some very good baseball between the Tigers and Twins this week — we're not going to know the division champion until Saturday. At the earliest. 2. I won't be surprised in the least if the Metrodome hosts Game No. 163 next Monday ... or Tuesday, in deference to Brett Favre and the NFL's primetime schedule. To be clear: I have believed for some time that the Tigers will win the division, and I'm not about to abandon that position now. But it's foolish to expect that they will celebrate in front of the Twins on Wednesday or Thursday. Minnesota's 9-5 edge in the season series would suggest that Detroit should feel fortunate to split these games. Still, there's plenty of evidence to suggest that it's only a matter of time before Champagne sprays in the home clubhouse at Comerica Park. According to the Baseball Prospectus postseason odds report, which synthesizes a lot of data I don't understand, the Tigers have a 78.7 percent chance of winning the division. Again, that seems very reasonable. Detroit plays its final seven games of the regular season at home, including three against the already-eliminated Chicago White Sox. Jim Leyland's team has been in first place since May. That counts for something, right? But consider this: In the midst of last weekend's series between the Tigers and White Sox, manager Ozzie Guillen accused his players of focusing more on bleeping Saturday college football games than their own bleeping business. Yet, the apparently disinterested White Sox took two of three. Which begs the question: If the Tigers can't dominate a team that is mailing it in — assuming Guillen's assessment was accurate — then how are they going to hold off the desperate and unrelenting Twins? When the Tigers and Twins begin their could-be epic with a day-night doubleheader on Tuesday — Monday's scheduled opener was washed out — we will witness the latest renewal of a familiar sports paradigm: The underdog is playing better than the favorite, and the question is whether the upstart has enough time to finish the comeback. On one level, Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire is simply glad to have a chance at winning the division with one week to play. But he wouldn't say that he's "comfortable" playing from behind. "I'd rather be on the other side of it," Gardenhire said. "I've been on the other side a couple times, and that's a lot more comfortable. ... Ours become more must-wins than theirs. "Like tomorrow, that first game is very important for us. And it's important for them. Don't get me wrong. But they can go farther away from us. That's why I say tomorrow's first game is the most important of the year for us now. "It's not like we can lose and they're going to lose, too. This is where separation comes — or we get closer." I understand that logic. It's the same line of thinking that explains why the Tigers' division-winning chances are nearly 80 percent, according to the BP computers. But based on what we've seen from both teams over the past two weeks, I believe Detroit's chances are just above 50 percent. It's a virtual tossup, with the teams separated by the distance Placido Polanco chokes up on his bat. Unscientific? Sure. I just prefer to look at a different set of numbers. Such as: 10 1/2 — The Twins' deficit on Aug. 7, 2006. They mounted a stirring charge in September and clipped the Tigers on the final day. 2 1/2 — The Twins' deficit on Sept. 21, 2008. They swept the White Sox in their next three games and vaulted into first place before ultimately losing a one-game playoff. 7 — The Twins' deficit on Sept. 6, 2009. They have since shaved five games. And counting. I can't promise you what the standings will look like on Sunday. But these Twins aren't going to be awed by anything that happens over the next three days. "It seems like, every single year, it's going to go down to the 162nd game —or 163rd, like last year," reliever Jesse Crain said. "You never take it for granted, but you almost kind of expect it. "The good thing is we've all been here before. We have an idea of what's going to happen. When we come to spring training, we know it's going to come down to the very end." It didn't always look that way for the 2009 vintage — but that was before the previously-middling Minnesotans went on their late run. The Twins have lost only two of their past 13. Zack Greinke, who is about to win the AL Cy Young Award, was the opposing starter in one of them. And Gardenhire's team has played each of those games without slugging first baseman Justin Morneau, lost for the season with a stress fracture in his back. But the right adjustments were made — Michael Cuddyer to first base; Jason Kubel to right field; Delmon Young, Jose Morales and Matt Tolbert into the lineup more frequently. The pitching staff has also improved, too, with a blend of rookies and inexpensive pickups. "Pretty much a Twins season right there," Crain said, smiling. "That's how we do things." Precisely. And that's why this series will be thoroughly entertaining but hardly decisive. Those hoping for a quick resolution to this race have one agonizing week ahead of them.
Tagged: Delmon Young, Justin Morneau, White Sox, Placido Polanco, Matt Tolbert, Jason Kubel, Tigers, Royals, Jesse Crain, Twins, Zack Greinke, Jose Morales, Michael Cuddyer

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