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VAN DYCK: Sox stuck with bullpen-by-combustion

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Updated Apr 2, 2003 1:20 AM ET
     
 

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.

Not only did Theo Epstein's bullpen-by-committee have bad results, it got bad reviews as well. "It ain't going to work, it never has," said one former manager we contacted. "They've got a $100 million payroll and they don't have a closer?" asked another former manager and scout, incredulously. "There are two things every team needs: (No.) 1 and 2 pitchers and a closer." "Before it's all over, they're going to have to make one of them the closer. That's just the way it works," said a third former manager and front-office guy. Well, that's the way it always has worked. But new Boston general manager Theo Epstein and his hired hand, statistical guru Bill James, have reinvented the idea that is time-tested. James' theory, strongly supported by Epstein, is that the "save" statistic is overrated, that the seventh inning is as important as the ninth inning, that a bullpen-by-committee contains interchangeable parts to be used as necessary. Boston isn't the first team to go with bullpen-by-committee, just the first to do it by design rather than by necessity. Well, the bullpen has flunked two tests, getting two blown saves in its first two games, despite Tuesday's game being a victory. Monday, the committee blew a three-run lead by allowing five, ninth-inning runs to the (gasp!) Tampa Bay . Tuesday, two relievers blew a three-run, fifth-inning lead before 's homer won it in the 16th inning, 9-8. Total two-day statistics for the bullpen: 12 2/3 innings, 8 earned runs, 18 hits, three home runs and a 5.68 ERA (including six shutout innings from unheralded and non-committeemen and ). "Yeah," one top scout said sarcastically, "it shows what happens when you combine a stat guy with a 28-year-old kid." Actually, Epstein is 29, but you get the idea: Scouts were having a real I-told-you-so moment Tuesday, pounding lumps on Epstein and James. Meanwhile, Boston manager Grady Little was patiently defending his general manager's controversial reinvention of the bullpen. "This is a new process and a learning process for everyone," Little said. "I think after they get these first games under their belts, you'll see different people out there most days." And about that Monday disaster? "Those are the kinds of things that happen," he said. "We've just got to hope they don't happen very often." Little better hope those things don't happen often, because he's the one who could lose his job if this doesn't work. Bullpen-by-committee puts a manager in a no-win situation, because he doesn't have a go-to, win-or-lose guy in the ninth inning. "I feel bad for Grady because he's trying to keep his job," said a former manager. "When I interview for jobs, I tell them that I'm the one who has to make out the lineup card. "They're going to have to get somebody to close games or Grady's gone. " Of course, Little can only use what he's given, so he was left defending the system. "What amazed me about (Monday) was that last year we had a closer (Ugueth Urbina) who had 40 saves for us and this year we don't have one, but on Opening Day we had a loss that was very similar to last year." Last year, Urbina blew an Opening Day save opportunity to Toronto in a 12-11 loss (and saved the first game for Texas this year after the chose not to re-sign him). "Yeah, he may have blown one, but don't forget he was a guy they knew they could bring back the next day and he would get the save," a scout said. "Who do they have now that they can trust to bring back?" was the loser Monday, allowing the final three-run homer. Because of injuries, he had pitched only 4 2/3 innings in the last 17 months. was the main culprit Tuesday, allowing a game-tying home run in the eighth inning. , who started the ninth-inning flames Monday, had a marvelous season last year, but has never proven himself as a closer. has saved games but has never been trusted. is considered just a setup man. And Howry doesn't have closer stuff since an injury. Maybe, just maybe, the truth is that Boston doesn't have a very good bullpen, even if they had a closer. "That's very possible," one scout said. "I'll tell you what they're going to have to do," one top scout said. "They're going to have to take their third baseman (Shea Hillenbrand) and trade him for a (closer) like that (Jose) Jimenez guy in Colorado." Epstein would be the one who would have to make the trade, although surely he's not ready to admit a mistake this early. But you can be assured the kid, being from Boston, can smell the gas coming from the Beantown media and fans, who may be the most knowledgeable and toughest in baseball. When you're a GM in Boston, you can feel like you're a pinned specimen being examined under a 1000X microscope. But this is pressure that Epstein (with James' help) has put on himself. Instead of taking the easy way out and re-signing Urbina, he chose this radical method of overturning a 13-23 record in one-run games last year. It's all part of the new thinking in baseball, the heavy reliance on statistics that has gained popularity with the success of GM Billy Beane in Oakland. "But Beane has a closer, doesn't he?" a scout asked rhetorically. Yes, he had last year and traded him for this year. No committee stuff in Oakland, not when those kid starters have games that need to be protected. "What do you think Pedro (Martinez) is going to say when that (a blown victory) happens a couple more times," a former manager said. Well, Martinez said again that he was concerned about a 40-save man slipping away. "When you have a guy who saved 40 games for you, it's difficult for you to understand that you're going to really just hand the ball to a committee of relievers that you have never seen before," he said after Monday's game. "To me, it's the first time I've ever seen this happen. Maybe for Grady it's not. But for me it's something new. I am going to have to trust Grady on that and just shut my mouth and continue to do my work." With Martinez's valuable right shoulder as fragile as it has been, he is rarely going to see a ninth inning. So somebody is going to have to, and won't it be interesting to watch baseball's statistical ideas of the new school clashing with the old-school system of scouts. Maybe what Epstein and James have done will be a good idea. Maybe it will be a bad idea. Maybe it will be a good idea with the wrong people involved. We've thought from the beginning it was a tragedy waiting for reality. It seems the jurors in Boston and those with radar guns behind home plates also have returned their verdict. Be sure of one thing: Bullpen-by-committee will be a hold-your-breath proposition — for as long as it lasts. Senior writer covers Major League Baseball for FOXSports.com and can be reached at his e-mail address: dvandyck@foxsports.com.
Tagged: Red Sox, White Sox, Athletics, Billy Koch, Brandon Lyon

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