LIVE Daytona Instant Analysis with Ryan McGee

McGee: We'll see you next week from Southern California, folks, for 500 more miles of racing. I'll be the guy with his head shaved like Britney Spears.

McGee: Hey...who was that good-looking writer who predicted big things for Harvick this season? McGee, I think his name was?

McGee: Kevin Harvick's last lap was textbook plate racing. He got a big push on the backstretch, barely dodged the desperate block of Kyle Busch, sucked the air off of Mark Martin's car to shake him loose, then stuck to his line to win by an eyeblink at the start-finish line.

It was an amazing, Intimidator-like dash for the cash.

And an amazing start to the season for the continuing comeback of Richard Childress Racing.

McGee: The big question that Mark Martin is going to have is why the yellow flag didn't come out when the spinning started off of turn four. Had the field been frozen then as it has been before, then Martin would be the winner.

Remember a few years ago at Talladega, when the yellow came out to hand Jeff Gordon the win over Dale Jr. in a controversial last-lap ruling.

McGee: Keep in mind that Harvick just won the Daytona 500 on the sixth anniversary of Dale Earnhardt's death in Dale's old ride.

McGee: Wow. Easily among the top five Daytona 500 finishes of all time, and really only the second door-to-door photo finish since the inaugural Daytona 500 in 1959. Lee Petty beat Johnny Beauchamp in finish that took three days to sort out.

McGee: Kevin Harvck is the winner!

That's Harvick's teammate Clint Bowyer who finished the race on his roof.

McGee: White flag!

Mark is hugging that yellow line as hard as he can.

Green Flag, Lap 198

McGee: Just like the last restart, it is imperative that Martin get up through the gears smoothy, but not too quickly. He wants to keep those cars behind him, but closely behind. Busch wants to get some distance between himself and Martin so that he can build up momentum and swing by for a last lap pass. If Martin closes that distance with a little braking or a slow run through the gears, that neutralizes Busch's plan.

Everyone else, they just jump on the gas and try to get by why Martin and Busch are playing chicken.

McGee: Some more backstory for you. Ryan Pemberton is the younger brother of NASCAR VP of Competition Robin Pemberton, the man who has been out front during all the fines and penalties over the last week. Robin was Martin's original crew chief at Roush Racing in the late 1980s and they nearly won the 1990 Cup title together.

McGee: When we restart this race, Mark Martin will lead with Kyle Busch in second. One of the great level-headed racers in NASCAR history being chased by one of the wildest young racers to come along in quite a while.

Kyle was originally under contract as a teenager to join Roush Racing as a teammate to Martin. Now both are in Chevys, Martin with newly-revamped Ginn Racing and Busch with uber-team Hendrick Motorsports. Martin was born in 1959...Busch in 1985.

McGee: Five to go...four wide through the trioval...and you knew that was going to happen. Mark Martin wanted to see those guys race like crazy behind him, but he didn't want the crash to happen. Now the field will be bunched up behind him, most with four new tires vs. his two, and it will take a perfect restart to hold them off on a green-white-checkered finish.

Sixth Yellow Flag, Lap 195

McGee: There are very few times when everyone in the garage is pulling for a rival (though they would never admit it). This is one of those times.

McGee: Great radio communication there between Martin and crew chief Ryan Pemberton. Pemberton's crew listened in the conversation that Greg Biffle had with his team and figured their strategy. He nees to keep those cars at arm's length...close, but not too close. Far away, but not too far away.

Green Flag, Lap 191

McGee: Every lap under caution plays into Mark Martin's hands with those two old tires. Martin was at Roush Racing for 19 years and never won a Cup points race here at Daytona. In fact, he has always been the No. 1 complainer about racing at Daytona and the evils of restrictor-plate racing. He's won at Daytona in the Bud Shootout, IROC, Trucks, even sportscars. But the winningest driver in Busch Series history never won a NBS race here and in 43 tries has never won a Cup race. Now he's semi-retired, drving a Chevy, and has a couple of his Roush Racing proteges behind him.

McGee: We've talked all day about veterans who have never won the Daytona 500...and 50-year old Ken Schrader who is 0-for-22 was just taken out by Dave Blaney with a bizarre move off of pit road.

Fifth Yellow Flag, Lap 185

McGee: Mark Martin is on the point with 20 to go. He took only two tires on that last pit stop, which allowed him to make up six positions on pit road. Everyone behind him took four. We'll see which move pays off.

McGee: One of Mike Wallace's crew members got popped by Jamie McMurray's Ford, but he's up and okay. Hard to believe that not so long ago these over-the-wall guys weren't required to wear helmets.

McGee: It is very common to see cars get pinched off and hit the wall at that Turn 2 exit — remember when Dale Earnhardt ended up on his roof in '97? But it looks as though Johnson simply had a loose race car, which means that the back end of the car wants to come around as you turn left. The guys behind him had no chance to react, especially at that point on the track where they have just jumped back into the throttle.

McGee: It was getting way too dicey out there, especially in the middle of the pack. The No. 48 popped the wall coming off Turn 2. Remember, he did that early in the race as well, which is what got his day started off so poorly.

McGee: 27 to go...cars spinning everywhere. That had to happen eventually.

Fourth Yellow Flag, Lap 173

McGee: Kelly Clarkson...where did she get that haircut? Floyd's Barbershop?

McGee: By the way, look who's in the lead pack? Back in 29th but only two seconds behind the leader...Juan Pablo Montoya.

McGee: With 30 to go, you know that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is anxious to get up to the front while these tires are fresh and good. His teammate and the man he discovered, Truex, is up front.

McGee: Mark Martin made his first Daytona 500 start in February 1982. Martin Truex Jr. was a year and a half old.

McGee: Remember all that stuff we talked about when it came to testing cars and testing each oher and being patient? You can forget that now. These guys smell money and can envision their name on the Harley J. Earl Trophy, so all bets are off.

McGee: Keep an extra eye on that No. 48 Chevy. Defending Daytona 500 champ Jimmie Johnson is quietly up to 16th.

McGee: Remember what we said about cold tires and an increasingly cold track surface? Well, this is where the rubber hits the road on that theory. This restart could be dicey. Martin Truex Jr is our leader, driving a DEI Chevy, followed by Mark Martin, who is making his 23rd Daytona 500 start.

Green Flag, Lap 160

McGee: We've run 155 laps and the two men who have led 129 of them are now behind the wall.

McGee: So now, with 45 laps to go, we have an interesting strategic situtaion for these teams. We are right on the edge of the fuel window.

On these pit stops, the gas men need to make sure that every ounce of fuel gets into the car and nowhere else. It could be the different between winning the 500 and sputtering to stop one lap shy.

Yellow Flag, Lap 153

McGee: Tony Stewart hit that wall hard in nearly the same place that Dale Earnhardt hit it six years ago today...but thanks to the safety improvements made since Earnhardt's death, those are SAFER System "soft walls" up there and they absorbed most of that impact. The result is that Tony Stewart's car is wrecked, but he is OK. Phsically, anyway. Emotionally he is crushed.

McGee: Wow! Our two leaders just wrecked!

47 to go and we have ourselves a brand new race, folks.

McGee: With 50 laps to go, the members of that lead pack of about a dozen cars are testing right now. Who do they work well with? Who should they avoid? Who is driving smart and who is driving like a maniac?

This group has decided "the winner of the Great American Race will be one of us" and this is time they are feeling out what might happen when this sucker is officially on the line about a half hour from now.

McGee: With one more pit stop remaining, this lead pack is in "get to know me" mode.

McGee:How hard is it keep cold, hard tires stuck to a cold, hard asphalt track surface? Just ask Jeff Gordon, who ran into those very condtions whipping out of the pits in the 24 Hours of Daytona sportscar race three weeks ago. He ended up spinning off into the infield grass.

McGee: With 64 laps to go, the sun is starting to dip behind the frontstretch grandstand tower. Temperatures are dropping fast. As more and more of the track becomes enveloped in darkness, we'll see which teams are ready to roll with the punches. A cold track + hard tires = possible big-time trouble, especially when we come off pit road for the final green flag run of the day...make that night.

McGee: Entering today's race, Rudd and Martin have started a combined 50 Daytona 500s without a win. Only Kyle Petty, who is 0-for-25, has experience as much frustration among today's 43 starters. Make that 0-for-26. He's already out of contention after a bizarre pit-road deal that left him with a tire wrapped around the rear axle of the No. 45 Dodge.

McGee: A few guys to keep an eye during this, what could be the next-to-last set of pit stops — Jeff Green has been near the front for a while now in the No. 66, Ricky Rudd has his Yates Racing ride back in the top 10 after some early handling issues, and Mark Martin has quietly made his way to the top 15.

McGee: Hey folks, is it just me or are the Daytona 500 commercals way better than the Super Bowl ads were two weeks ago?

McGee: A quick rundown of where the cheaters are runing with 80 laps to go. Michael Waltrip is one lap down in 41st. Ray Evernham's crew chief-less cars are running nearly as bad. Kahne is 30th, Sadler 34th and Riggs is out. The lone team that got into trouble who is running well is the No. 17 of Matt Kenseth, who is sitting ninth while crew chief Robbie Reiser is sitting at home.

McGee: Remember how I was bragging on how well Jeff Gordon was running? Well, throw that out the window. He is a sled right now, dropping from inside the top all the way back to 32nd in one lap. There doesn't seem to be anything mechanically wrong, just a car that has lost the handle. Apparently these new harder Goodyear tires can go away just that quickly. DW predicted that Gordon would have problems on long green flag runs and as usual, what Jaws says will happen usually happens.

McGee: Wow! David Stremme and Kevin Harvick touched at 190 mph on the frontstretch and Stremme took a car that was sideways and somehow saved it. When a driver saves a car like that, it is total instinct. For guys like Stremme with short-track backgrounds in a series like ASA, skills like that are honed on Saturday nights driving bad race cars on even worse track conditions.

McGee: Lap 100, we're halfway done. The headlines so far: Cold and windy...Penske Racing cruising with Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman...Jeff Gordon started in the back is near the front...Tony Stewart dominated early but is near the back after pit road problems...Chevys and Dodges good, Fords so-so, Toyotas bad.

McGee: Nearing the halfway point of the race and the big dogs have found their way back to the top 10 — Dale Jr., Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards, and Jeff Gordon are among those who have suddenly shown up. Whoa! Check that...Dale Jr. is bad loose and falling off the pace.

Junior is complaining over the radio that his car is too loose to drive. His crew chief (and cousin) Tony Eury Jr. has told him to find a place midpack and hang on for a few laps, promising that it will come back to him as this green flag run wears on and the tires wear in.

Green Flag, Lap 82

For those of you who thought we were only going to have one caution, whatever. The last time we had less than two yellow flags in the Daytona 500 was back in 1970 when there were zero. Half of the guys in this race weren't even born yet.

McGee: Remember what we told you about chaos on pit road? There it was. Thirty-seven cars just pitted all at once and what happened? David Gilliland and Robby Gordon wrecked, Tony Stewart stalled out, and NASCAR has to sift through a pile of data to determine where everyone will restart.

Second Yellow Flag, Lap 80

I'm an old race fan from way back. Seems to me I remember, back in the '70s, a popular race car driver making the following comment just before the Daytona 500: "If you're gonna drink, drink Gatorade. If you're gonna smoke, smoke Winstons. And if you're gonna cheat, don't get caught!" Can't say for sure, but I think the driver's initials were DW. At any rate, whoever said it had everyone laughing. — Matt, New London

McGee: Hey, Matt, I'm old-school, as well...and it was DW that said that. Here's another one from Darrell after he got busted with a nitrous oxide bottle in his car at Daytona in '76: "If you don't cheat you look like an idiot. If you do it and you don't get caught, you look like a hero. If you do it and you get caught, you look like a dope. Put me in the category where I belong."

McGee: During these pit stops we're seeing proof of all the handling problems that were predicted. Just about every car that comes in is getting a chassis adjustment. Watch during these stops and you'll see a crewman snap what looks like a coat hanger into a hole at the corner of the rear windshield...when he cranks that metal rod, he's increasing and decreasing the tightness of the rear springs.

When you hear team talk about putting in or taking out "wedge" that's what they're talking about. They are changing the handling characteristics of the car.

McGee: Pit stops coming any minute now, the first green flag stops of the day. All the spotters are working overtime to see when everyone is coming in. Pitting by yourself is drafting suicide. You need a partner coming in and out. Any car by itself is toast. Just ask J.P. Montoya, who is all alone right now and a full second slower than the cars with partners.

McGee: If you're wondering where the Toyotas are, the answer is "in the back." Fifty-seven laps in, Dave Blaney is tops among the four Camrys running 28th.

McGee: Fifty laps in and we're already about to lap some cars at the back. Tony Stewart, who has been king all week, is up front, followed by Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman, teammates who are fighting to recover from an embarrassing 2006 for Penske Racing South.

McGee: You're probably wondering what's happened to all the giant packs we usually see at Daytona and Talladega. But all week long teams have been telling me that they expected to get much more strung out than normal.

Why? The new hard tires, the crazy weather (hot, cold, rain), and the blasting wind off of turn two. Saturday's Busch Series race got pretty strung out and we're already seeing that today after only 50 laps. It's likely to get even worse when the sun goes down and track surface temperatures plummet.

McGee: Meanwhile, Jeff Gordon started 42nd but is already up to 19th even after slapping the wall early.

McGee: Speaking of struggling, Juan Pablo Montoya is dropping back in a hurry, losing two positions per lap and free-falling to 42nd. He's likely wondering what he's gotten himself into...but his learning curve will shorten in a hurry.

McGee: Only 32 laps in and these guys are really slicing and dicing up front. Everybody really fans out when we hit the turns, which tells you who is handling well and who isn't. The cars that are really dialed in are the ones that are managing to stay glued to the bottom of the track even with 15-20 laps on these tires. The ones that are struggling will climb that banking in a hurry as they try to catch up with a skating rear of the car.

McGee: Watch out for Kevin Harvick, folks. He started this race way back in 34th and now he's up to the top five. He won the Busch Series race yeterday and this is still Dale Earnhardt's old team...there's no question that car knows how to get around this place. By the way, I hear that a really good-looking, extremely talented writer for this very website picked Harvick to win the Cup title.

McGee: Pole sitter David Gilliland just got a lesson in drafting. The five cars behind him ganged up and hung him out to dry, kicking him back to 7th. But he showed a lot of patience, drifted back, and eased back into line. That's the kind of cool-headed mindset that landed him the job at Robert Yates Racing.

Green flag, Lap 20

McGee: We're racing again. Kurt Busch out front thanks to his Penske Racing South crew.

McGee: Gordon barely brushed the wall, but when it comes to superspeedway racing these cars are so sensitive to any aerodynamic change that even the tiniest fender bender can have a giant effect on handling.

Just received our Cingular Virtual Crew Chief question from Mr. Mike Joy and the NASCAR on FOX gang: Which manufacturer has the best chance to break Chevy's Daytona stranglehold?

McGee: My money is on Ford. Robert Yates Racing has bounced back in a big way this weekend and they've been to Victory Lane here plenty of times before with Davey Allison and Dale Jarrett.

Yellow flag, Lap 16

McGee: Boris Said spins. The first caution of the day is perfectly timed for everyone at Lap 16. It's a chance to slow down, talk, make any early critical adjustments, and get that pit crew loosened up with a little action in this bitterly cold weather.

McGee: It is especially good for guys like Dale Junior and Jeff Gordon, who have already had a pair of minor scrapes. Now the crews can check those cars over and make sure everything is good to go.

McGee: All these guys are doing right now is getting those cars warmed up and dialed in. Where are they good, where are they bad? Getting some heat in those tires and seeing how their car handles different places in the draft...directly behind the car in front of them, off the left side, off the ride, etc.

McGee My sleeper pick today is sophomore David Stremme in the No. 40 Coors Dodge. He's the man who pushed Jeff Gordon to a win in the Duel 150's and he's been wicked fast in practice. And now he's trying to push his way into second behind Kurt Busch.

Green flag

McGee: Remember that we are running these cars with restrictor plates, so it will take about two laps to get these cars up to speed.

Rookie David Gilliland is on the pole and led the first lap. That's the good news. The bad news? Only nine drivers have won this race from the pole in 48 previous races.

Speaking of "poles"...An informal poll in the garage this morning found about seven out of every 10 NASCAR competitors think that Tony Stewart is the man to beat today. Why not? He's already won 11 races at Daytona, including two this week...but he's never won the Daytona 500.

Prerace

Will Hendrick Motorsports ever be treated equally by NASCAR? They always seem to be given preferential treatment when committing similar "infractions" of the rules? Nothing drastic seems to ever happens to the convicted "Golden Boy" or his teams. — Lloyd from Mims, Fla.

McGee: Hey Lloyd...first, how cool is it that the lake on the Daytona backstretch is called Lake Lloyd? Second, you are crazy. Nobody has gotten any special treatment this week, trust me. The infraction on the #24 after winning the Duel 150 on Thursday was purely an accidental broken part. There were a lot of people in the garage who had their doubts, so NASCAR showed them the broken part. After they saw it, no one was complaining any longer.

McGee:Three things to watch today, folks:

1. Tires. This new harder Goodyear tire has the cars sliding all over the place and the drivers really griping.

2. Wind. We are expecting 30-50 mph gusts blowing directly down the backstretch and it will totally throw these cars out of control.

3. Pit Road. The pits are tight and we always have dozens of cars pitting all at once...which means total chaos.