by Ryan McGee

0 wins, 9 top fives, 23 top 10's, 11th in points

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Fifteen points. That's all that kept McMurray from making a college marching band's worth of noise down the homestretch of the 2004 season. A sour engine caused McMurray to slide three positions during the closing laps of The Chase's cutoff race at Richmond on September 11. The slow leak of horsepower was just enough to leave him on the outside looking in when the top 10 teams were separated and sent off to battle for the title.

But instead of focusing on the pain of the near-miss, McMurray simply went to work. Over the final 10 races, he racked up eight top-eight finishes, running away with the million-dollar 11th position in points. If he had made the cut, he would have finished third in points. And if the old points system had still been in place, he would have finished sixth.

"But we still haven't won races," says the 28-year old. "And in the end, winning races is the best way to compete for championships."

Why He Will Finish 4th

Because 2005, Jamie Mac's third full Cup season, should finally be his time to shine. The entire Havoline team has spent all winter focusing on the two main reasons for McMurray's inability to break through into the ranks of the superstars — engine failures and poor pit stops.

In the first 20 races of 2004, the 42 car suffered four popped motors. During the remaining 16, every power plant held together to the end (though the Richmond engine admittedly wouldn't have made it much longer). And five of the team's seven over the wall crewmen have been replaced, each new guy coming from a high-powered team elsewhere in the garage.

If McMurray can avoid the stumbling start that has put him behind the eight ball each of the last two seasons, the thought of him hitting his annual spring stride with a little momentum on his side is a little scary.

The All-Telling, All-Knowing Stat: 7

That's the number of McMurray's finishes that were 20th or worse during the first five races of the last two seasons. In 2003, he started the year with finishes of 31st, 5th, 32nd, 36th and 22nd. Last year, he rolled out of the gate with efforts of 36th, 3rd, 4th, 37th and 21st. That's a 10-race average finish of 23rd. With Rockingham out of the mix (5th in '03, 3rd in '04), acing a quick start will be even more difficult.

Fantasy Lock: Charlotte (would've been Rockingham if it wasn't closed)

This may seem a little too obvious, seeing as how Lowe's is the site of Mac's first and so far only Cup victory, but the numbers have held up over the last two-plus seasons. In five starts, he has earned four top-eight finishes for an average effort of ninth. He's also led at least one lap in three of those five races and has scored three straight Busch Series top 10's driving for three different teams.

Ryan McGee is the managing editor at NASCAR Images and Senior Producer of NASCAR Nation on SPEED Channel. He can be reached at his e-mail address: rmcgee@foxsports.com.