Folks, I apologize again for being a little bit behind with my follow-up from Atlanta and my Phoenix preview, but it's been a busy week.
I got to work on the Will Ferrell NASCAR movie for a couple of days in Charlotte with Mike Joy, Larry McReynolds and the NBC guys. We've got little cameo parts throughout the movie so we were calling one of Ricky Bobby's races. I had an awesome time. The people were so fun to work with. Larry, Mike and I love talking about racing, and we were excited about being able to participate in the movie so it was a fun two days.
I can't wait to see the final product. Always remember it's a spoof on NASCAR, and it should be really hilarious. Knowing Will Ferrell the way we do, I'm sure it's going to be a hoot.
Don't beat yourself
Anyway, back to the title of this story, "Hey Tony! Don't beat yourself." Everywhere I go, people keep asking, "Hey DW! What would you tell Tony Stewart right now?" And
that's what I would be telling him. I wouldn't just tell Tony Stewart. I would say the same thing to his crew chief, Greg Zipadelli, and that whole No. 20 crowd.
Headed into this weekend, the guys working on the car have to do a meticulous job. They can't take chances on anything. When they get to the track and practice, they can't tear up the car and go to a backup car. The motor guys have to be absolutely sure that every part, piece and accessory that goes on that engine is flawless. And then, of course, the race itself is when everybody — Greg, Tony and the crew — come together to do the job.
The No. 20 team has to continue to work hard, and the team members have done an outstanding job of that very thing #&151 not beating themselves. Even with the bad luck that they had at Charlotte, Stewart brought the car to pit road. The crew worked on it, and they got the car back out on the track. It was a pivotal race. Stewart was able to hang on to a torn-up race car and get a 25th-place finish.
Phoenix is a short track — a lot like Richmond and New Hampshire — with tight racing. When there are cautions, everybody gets bunched up. You can have some really frantic restarts, and people can get in trouble so Stewart has to be on his toes. If you recall, he and Jimmie Johnson were racing pretty hard in the third turn in April, and Johnson got in the back of Stewart, spinning out the No. 20 car, which finished 33rd. Stewart has to avoid those situations.
In these next two races, you've got to give more than you take and be in position — like Stewart has been for so many races during the second half of the year — to capitalize on the bad luck of others. Going into this weekend, six guys still have a realistic shot at winning the title. If Stewart has a problem early in the race and falls out, another Chaser can make up 156 points. If you're the first car out of the race, you can lose 156 points, and the top six drivers are only separated by 135 so a problem could be devastating for Stewart as well as Johnson or Carl Edwards.
You've got to finish this race and run well. You can't go to Homestead hoping to pull this title out of the fire. For the sake of sanity, you need to go into the last race of the season with a cushion. The 38-point lead that Stewart has right now would be a great way to go into the last race so Tony, don't beat yourself.
Never say never
The other side of the equation is what I would be telling Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards, and that is "Never say never". Johnson is close enough to breathe down Stewart's neck. On the other hand, Edwards is back a little bit. It's going to take some bad luck, not just on Stewart's part, but Johnson will have to stumble as well for Edwards to have a shot at winning the championship. Edwards' bad fortune is that Phoenix isn't a half-mile longer. If Phoenix were a mile-and-a-half race track, I would be betting some money on the No. 99 car.
Who else to watch
Carl Edwards: The No. 99 was fast car at Phoenix in the spring, lost a couple of laps, made them up and finished 7th so he can run well there. While he's very impressive on the mile-and-a-halfs, he's struggled at some of the smaller race tracks like Bristol, Martinsville and Richmond. He's almost a little too aggressive for those smaller race tracks so he's going to have to really temper himself, and his crew chief, Bob Osborne, is going to have to keep Edwards restrained a little bit. He needs to win, and there's an outside chance that he can. Kurt Busch was awfully good in the spring, and he chased down my brother, Michael, late in the race to win that thing so we know the Roush cars will be good there. Edwards just can't overdrive the car, and he has to stay out of trouble. It's easy to do when you're running behind as a rookie, and you're trying to catch up so he's going to have to use a lot of wisdom and patience to get through this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson: On the other hand, Johnson just needs to perform. He wasn't very good at Atlanta, which surprised me, but he did get a good finish at Texas. All Johnson has to do is have the consistency that the 48 team is known for, and he'll be able to run up front.
Jeff Gordon: While I think Gordon is going to struggle, he might even sit on the pole like he did in the spring. If you notice, tracks where Gordon hasn't necessarily done well are tracks that are in the latter part of the year. A lot of times, a driver will go into those last four or five race tracks just needing a good finish. In a championship battle, you won't necessarily go into the last few tracks thinking "win". You'll think"finish", which may be why Gordon hasn't won at Texas, Phoenix and Homestead.
Mark Martin: While Martin didn't run that well at Martinsville, he runs well on the small, one-mile and half-mile race tracks. He's usually pretty good at Phoenix so he could stay close.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: My brother was so good at Phoenix in the spring, and the No. 8 team will have a car very similar to Michael's No. 15 car. The only difference is the April race was at night, and this race will be in the afternoon so it could have some affect on setup. Junior could become the first three-time Cup race winner at Phoenix. He won this race in 2003 and 2004.
Rusty Wallace: The No. 2 team should run well because Wallace loves Phoenix so he'll be a contender.
Ryan Newman: Here's some bad news for the Rocketman. No one has ever won the Phoenix race from the pole so Newman might want to think about working on his race setup this weekend and forget about trying to win the pole.
Oh, by the way
I said for weeks that everybody was going to end up where they wanted to go. I knew that Kurt Busch was going to end up at Penske Racing and Jamie McMurray was going to end up at Roush Racing. And I knew Bobby Labonte wasn't happy, and he was probably going to make a move. So most of the things that I predicted are pretty much happening the way I thought they would.
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