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Instant Analysis from Tom Jensen
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Past races: California | Las Vegas | Atlanta | Bristol | Martinsville | Texas | Phoenix | Talladega | Richmond | Darlington | Charlotte | Dover | Pocono | Michigan | Sonoma | Daytona | Chicagoland | New Hampshire | Pocono | Brickyard | Watkins Glen | Michigan | Bristol
Be sure to be here next week, folks. Because anyone in positions 5 to 11 might make the Chase at Richmond, or they could miss it. It'll be a whale of a battle, that's for sure.
Michael from Lewisburg, W.V.: Enjoyed it as usual Tom. It's late but the race was good and the excitement is building to Richmond. See you then and thanks for your comments on racing.
Tom Jensen: Michael, thanks for being with us. It's going to be a great week.
Scott from Albia, Iowa: I think Gordon's stop with no tires was the smartest move in the pits....with this few of laps left to go, saving time in the pits is huge. The tires shouldn't make that much of a difference with only ten to go.
Tom Jensen: Scott, I agree. Gordon made a smart move and that helped him move back to the top five, which really helped him a lot in points.
Kasey Kahne came up huge when he had to, leading the most laps and winning for a series-high fifth time this season. This sets up a thrilling showdown next Saturday in Richmond, with a lot of possibilities.
Here's the top 10 in points now:
1. Kenseth
2. Johnson -9
3. Harvick -342
4. Gordon - 387
5. Busch - 394
6. Earnhardt - 412
7. Hamlin - 413
8. Stewart -444
9. Martin -457
10. Burton -459
11. Kahne - 489
Lap 250: Kahne wins his fifth race of the year. Earnhardt is second, then Bowyer, Edwards, Gordon, Hamlin, Kenseth, Busch, Stewart and Jarrett.
Lap 249: Sorenson runs out of gas on the race's penultimate lap while leading by 6 seconds!!!!!!
Lap 248: Sorenson leads by 6.531 seconds. Kahne is next, then Bowyer, Earnhardt, Edwards, Gordons, Kenseth, Dale Jarrett, Hamlin and Casey Mears.
Lap 247: Kahne passes Yeley, who stops for a splash and go.
Lap 246: Kahne passes Bowyer for third.
Lap 245: Earnhardt is fifth, Gordon eighth and Martin 16th right now.
Lap 244: Sorenson's lead is 7.189 seconds. If he holds on to win, it would Chip Ganassi's first victort since the fall Charlotte race in 2002, nearly four years ago.
Lap 243: Sorenson leads J.J. Yeley, Bowyer, Jamie McMurray and Kahne.
Lap 242: Reed Sorenson, who topped off under the last caution is out front and gambling he has enough gas to go the distance.
Lap 241: Edwards takes a splash and go.
Lap 240: Earnhardt takes right-side tires, as did Martin.
Lap 239: Kahne pits, handing lead to Earnhardt. Kahne takes right-side tires in 7.3 second. Gordon pits for gas only in 4.9 seconds. Kyle Busch takes right-side tires and gas.
Lap 237: Harvick pits for gas and right-side tires.
Lap 233: Kenseth pits, putting Gordon up to fourth.
Lap 232: Biffle and Johnson pit and take tires.
Lap 231: Earnhardt takes second from Sadler.
Andy from Sacramento, Calif.: I keep waiting for the "black cloud" to go away from Greg Biffle. Has he had unusually bad luck this end of the season or what? Tires, Contact with other cars, pit issues! Sure is frustrating as a Biffle fan.
Tom Jensen: Andy, thanks for the question. Sometimes, you just have a season where despite everyone's best effort, things just don't work out. Biffle's year has been that way. And I really thought he'd win the title this year.
Lap 230: Earnhardt closes to within .6 seconds of Sadler for second.
Lap 229: Gordon drops Riggs to sixth as he moves back into the top 5. Looks like he'll have a good points race after all.
Lap 228: Gordon passes Hamlin for sixth and closes on Riggs.
Lap 226: Few of the leaders have enough gas to make it to the end of the race. Expect a rush of gas and go pit stops. Earnhardt is up to third, but he's nearly 8 seconds in arrears of leader Kahne.
Lap 225: Just 25 laps to go and it's Kahne out front by seconds. Then it's Sadler, Kenseth, Earnhardt, Riggs, Hamlin, Kyle Busch. Gordon, Edwards and Martin.
Lap 222: Earnhardt is now fifth, Martin eighth and Gordon ninth.
Lap 220: Kenseth moves into third, knocking Riggs back to fourth.
Lap 215: Kahne leads by 1.635 seconds over Sadler, Riggs, Kenseth and Martin.
Lap 214: Earnhardt is on the move, up to 10th place and running the high groove again. Gordon is right behind him in 11th.
Lap 211: Earnhardt goes around Gordon for 12th place.
Lap 210: Riggs passes Martin for third, making it a 1-2-3 Evernham cluster at the front.
Lap 207: Gordon is up to 12th place, but he's more than a second behind 11th-place Harvick.
The big question now: Can everyone make it on fuel?
Lap 206: Kahne passes teammate Sadler for the lead and has now clinched the five bonus points for leading the most laps.
Lap 205: Evernham Motorsports Dodges are running 1-2-4, with Martin's Ford in third. Gordon is up to 14th and may be able to salvage a decent finish despite his pit-road penalty.
Michael from Lewisburg, W.V.: Tom, there is a lot being made about the crew chiefs complaining about not being able to practice during the sun setting and track temp changing. With todays technology, can't they use information from the Charlotte race to help in the set-up?
Tom Jensen: Michael, thanks for the question. The tires used at Charlotte were totally different - and rock hard - to deal with the track repaving this spring. The notes from there wouldn't translate in California because of that.
Anita from Medford, Oregon: What happened to Bill Elliott?
Tom Jensen: Hey there, Anita. Elliott is basically doing an R&D run. The Michael Waltrip Racing team is doing a bunch of in-race testing, not racing for position.
Lap 200: Top 10 is Sadler, Kahne, Martin, Edwards, Nemechek, Riggs, Kenseth, Hamlin, Johnson and Kyle Busch. Gordon is 17th.
Lap 196: Martin nearly collides on the restart with Newman as Sadler takes over the lead for the first time.
Lap 196: Green flag.
This race is a long way from over and so is the Chase.
Lap 193: Leaders pit. Mark Martin takes just two tires and comes out in the lead, ahead of Sadler, Carl Edwards, Nemechek, Kahne, Kurt Busch, Riggs, Kenseth, Hamlin and Johnson. Kyle Busch comes out 12th, Gordon 21st.
Caution 7
Lap 191: Caution No. 7 for debris. Bobby Labonte gets the Lucky Dog. Kahne looks to be in good shape to lock up the most laps led, which is worth 5 bonus points.Lap 190: Martin is 17th; Gordon is 19th.
Lap 189: Kahne's lead over Kyle Busch is 1.629 seconds.
Lap 187: If Riggs can hold onto 3rd place, it will be his best finish of the season.
Lap 184: Busch passes Kahne for lead on backstretch, but can't make it stick as Kahne holds on to top spot.
Lap 182: Gordon is up to 22nd, Martin 18th.
Lap 181: Kahne gets sideways in Turn 2 to as Busch pressures him for the lead.
Lap 180: Kahne retakes lead on backstretch, takes Kyle Busch with him to second place.
Lap 179: Green flag. Kurt Busch was the Lucky Dog.
Lap 176: Gordon makes second pit stop because his crew missed at least one lugnut. He comes out in 25th place, a critical blunder.
Lap 175: Leaders pit. Earnhardt takes the lead, with Kahne second, followed by Kyle Busch, Scott Riggs and Kenseth. Then it's Hamlin, Johnson, Stewart, Bowyer and Edwards. Earnhardt, Kahne and Riggs all took two tires.
Caution 6
Lap 173: Caution No. 6 as David Gilliland spins coming out of Turn 2.Lap 172: After a tense battle earlier, Gordon has opened up a 1.346-second on his teammate Busch.
Lap 169: Kahne is up to 15th, Martin 21st.
Lap 166: Gordon retakes lead from his teammate Busch.
Lap 164: Kenseth passes Earnhardt for third. Kahne, meanwhile, has passed eight cars and is all the way back to 16th.
Lap 162: Kyle Busch takes lead back after going three-wide with Gordon and Earnhardt. Kenseth is fourth.
Lap 160: Green flag. If the track stays green the rest of the way, the cars will only have to make one more pit stop.
Lap 159: Kahne has to make a second stop for entering pit road too fast, which drops him to the end of the green-lap cars. He will restart 24th and this has huge implications for his Chase hopes.
Lap 157: Lead-lap cars pit. Gordon's crew gets him out in the lead, ahead of Kahne, Earnhardt, Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Hamlin, Harvick, Johnson, Stewart and Bowyer. Martin comes out of the pits 22nd.
Caution 5
Lap 155: Caution No. 5 for debris. This will send all the lead-lap cars to pit road. This will be a crucial stop as darkness is falling. Jeff Green is the Lucky Dog again and there are 26 cars on the lead lap.Lap 152: Earnhardt has cut Kahne's lead to 1.705 seconds by taking the high line through the corners.
Lap 150: Kahne leads Earnhardt, Gordon, Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kenseth, Stewart, Harvick, Johnson and Bowyer.
Lap 149: Earnhardt passes Gordon on the backstretch and moves to second place.
So far, none of the top-10 drivers has had a major problem. But a blown engine or a wreck still could have a profound outcome on the Chase for the NASCAR Nextel Cup.
Lap 145: The fastest car on the track right now is now Earnhardt, who is rapidly closing on Gordon for second place. Martin has picked up one more spot and is now 20th.
Lap 145: The sun is finally starting to set.
Lap 140: Kahne leads Gordon by 2.304 seconds, with Earnhardt third, 5.220 seconds back. Hamlin is fourth, Busch is fifth. Then it's Stewart, Kenseth, Harvick, Johnson and Bowyer.
Lap 136: Earnhardt passes Hamlin on the high side and his now up into third place.
Lap 133: Hamlin motors by Kyle Busch for third place.
Lap 131: Kahne is now up 1.364 seconds on Gordon and 4.137 seconds on Busch.
Lap 129: Kahne and Gordon have pulled far away from the field, with Busch 2.784 seconds behind in third.
Lap 125: Halfway: Kahne leads Gordon by 0.525 seconds. Then it's Busch, Hamlin, Earnhardt. Kenseth, Stewart, Harvick, Burton and Johnson. Martin is 22nd.
Lap 124: Gordon passes Busch to take second place.
Lap 123: Kahne retakes the lead from Busch.
Ron from North Manchester, Ind.: What has changed in Mark Martin's camp these past two weeks. Does someone have the flu? Mark is one true competitor. Is it mathematically possible for this great driver to miss the chase?
Tom Jensen: Ron: Thanks for the question. Martin's crew spent time in the pits getting his fender fixed and he should be able to make up some ground. Last week, his problem at Bristol was that he pitted out of the pit box and was penalized a lap, a lap he could never make up. And yes, he could miss the Chase. But there's a lot of racing left.
Nick from Newport News, Va.: Sorry this is so late, but where does this tradition of a pre-race invocation get its start? Who came up with that idea? I realize there are life-threatening implications for the drivers, spectators, crews, and officials, but I find it kind of exclusive and unneeded. At the very least, has NASCAR ever even considered doing an invocation from a faith other than Christianity? I realize the vast majority of NASCAR fans are Christians, but if NASCAR is to truly branch out and embrace a more diverse fan base, do you not think that they should embrace those who do not share the same Judeo-Christian beliefs?
Tom Jensen: Nick: Glad you could be with us. Honestly, I do not know how the story behind the start of the invocation. My guess - and it's just that - is that the Deep South where NASCAR has its roots is a heavily Christian area and it grew from there. In all the races I've attended, I've heard people of different faiths give the invocation. But my expertise is racing, not religion, so I will leave it to wiser minds than mine how best to handle invocations.
Lap 122: Martin is picking up spots again and is up to 24th.
Lap 119: Kyle Busch passes Kahne for the lead.
Lap 115: Green flag. All 30 lead-lap cars stopped during that caution period.
Lap 112: Lead-lap cars pit. Kahne holds the lead, followed by Kyle Busch, Gordon, Hamlin, Earnhardt, Kenseth, Stewart, Harvick, Bowyer and Burton. Martin is 27th.
Caution 4
Lap 110: Caution No. 4. as Vickers has heavy damage to his right front due to a blown tire. Jeff Green gets the Lucky Dog.Lap 108: Kyle Busch slides wide in a turn, as his teammate Gordon moves to second and takes off after Kahne.
Lap 106: Martin's woes continue; he's 23rd. Gordon passes Hamlin for third and is consistently the fastest car on the track in recent laps.
Lap 105: Kahne's lead over Kyle Busch is 2.087 seconds.
Lap 101: Earnhardt moves by Stewart for fifth place. So far, the cream has been at the top for most of the race. Of the top 10 in points, eight are in the top 10 in the race right now.
Lap 100: With 100 laps down, Kahne leads Kyle Busch by 1.198 seconds. Hamlin is third, then Gordon, Stewart, Earnhardt, Burton, Kenseth, Johnson and Bowyer. Martin is back in 17th after contact damaged his right-front fender.
Lap 97: Burton passes Earnhardt for sixth.
Lap 95: Kahne's lead is 0.924 seconds. Kyle Busch is second, followed by Hamlin, Gordon and Stewart.
Lap 93: Martin has slipped back to 13th, behind his teammate, Greg Biffle.
Lap 91: Kahne is back out front for the second time today.
Lap 89: Gordon has fallen to sixth, complaining of a push in the front end of his Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Monte Carlo.
Lap 87: On the restart, Kyle Busch, Kahne and Hamlin blow by Gordon.
Lap 86: Green flag. Martin having radio problems.
Lap 85: Gordon, Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kahne, Stewart, Earnhardt, Martin, Burton, Kenseth and Edwards are in the top 10. The only Chase drivers not in the top 10 in the race are 14th-place Johnson and Harvick, who's 13th.
Lap 84: Ryan Newman spins out Elliott Sadler on pit road.
Lap 84: Caution was for debris. Ken Scrader got the Lucky Dog.
Caution 3
Lap 83: Caution No. 3 for debrisLap 81: With green-flag stops cycled through, Gordon leads Hamlin by 6.272 seconds. Then it's Kyle Busch, Kahne, Stewart, Earnhardt, Martin, Sterling Marlin, Burton and Kenseth.
Lap 80: Kyle Busch pits
Lap 79: Hamlin, Burton, Kenseth, Harvick, pit.
Lap 78: Stewart, Earnhardt, Martin pit. Joe Nemechek slides through pits.
Lap 77: Gordon pits with a 3.3 second lead. Kahne pits, too, for four tires, as does Kurt Busch.
Lap 74: Kyle Busch passes Kahne for third place. Earnhardt picks up two more spots and now is in sixth place. Martin, just three spots back of Kahne right now, is doing what he needs to do to protect his position.
Lap 70: Martin has charged to seventh, which is bad news for Kasey Kahne. Gordon's lead is now 2.295 seconds. Earnhardt has recovered somewhat from a bad restart last time out and is now up to eighth. Johnson, on the other hand, has faded to 14th.
Lap 68: If we don't have a caution before then, the next round of pit stops should be in the lap 75-80 range.
Lap 66: Gordon has opened up his lead on Hamlin to 1.441 seconds as sundown is about an hour away. Over the last 10 races, Gordon has earned more points than any driver except Kevin Harvick.
Joe from Burke, Va.: Hi good evening, and thank you in advance for your time. My Question is in regards to the 10th-place Race for the Chase rule as in a tie. Does that apply to all 10 drivers in the Chase or just 10th place?
Tom Jensen: Joe, thanks for the question. The tie only applies to the drivers in 10th place. In other words, if three drivers tied for 10th place, all three would start the Chase with the same number of points and all three would begin 45 points behind the first-place car.
Lap 61: Kyle Busch passes Burton for fourth. Gordon's lead is 0.995 seconds.
Lap 60: Top 10: Gordon, Hamlin, Kahne, Burton, Kyle Busch, Stewart, Bowyer, Martin, Harvick and Johnson. Truex, who had the pit miscue, has charged from 42nd to 23rd already.
Lap 58: Kyle Busch, who won this race last year, passed Stewart for fifth. Martin is up to eighth and he's picked it up a great deal.
Lap 57: The setting sun is positively devilish, blinding the drivers on the backstretch.
Lap 55: Gordon has caught Hamlin and leads a lap for the first time all race. Again, those 5 bonus points help with the top 10 so close in points.
Lap 54: Kurt Busch continues to fall through the field, as he's dropped to 14th with the handling clearly gone away on his Penske Racing South Dodge Charger.
Lap 52: Hamlin leads by 0.888 seconds, but Gordon is slowly eating away at his lead. Behind them, Martin has suddenly come alive, as he's now in 10th place, his first time in the top 10 all night.
Lap 50: With 50 of 250 laps in the books, here's the top 10: Hamlin: Gordon, Kahne, Burton, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Bowyer, Kenseth, Harvick and Jimmie Johnson.
Lap 49: Jeff Gordon up to second place as he passes Kasey Kahne.
Kirsten from Medford, Wisconsin: What happened in Martin Truex Jr.'s pit just now?
Tom Jensen: Kirsten: They did not get the lugnuts on Truex's left-front wheel and it came off as soon as he hit the gas. He stayed on the lead lap.
Lap 43: Of all the cars in the Chase now, Mark Martin is having the worst race so far. He is mired back in 17th.
Lap 40: Kurt Busch his back to eighth, complaining of a lack of rear grip.
Lap 39: Burton now up to second place, ahead of his Richard Childress Racing teammate, Bowyer. Clearly, RCR is the comeback team of the year so far. All three RCR cars are in the top seven, as Harvick is seventh at one of his worst tracks.
Lap 37: Busch falls to fourth behind Hamlin, Bowyer and Burton. All 43 cars are still on the lead lap.
Lap 36: Hamlin retakes lead.
Lap 34: Busch back in the lead, Earnhardt back to 13th after a bad restart.
Lap 33: Hamlin, Kurt Busch side by side for lead.
Lap 32: Green flag. The top 10 out of the pits: Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Burton, Bowyer, Earnhardt, Kahne, Gordon, Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kenseth.
Lap 30: The entire field hits pit road. Truex has a disastrous stop as his left-front tire falls off. Kahne's stop takes 16.5 seconds as he has a spring rubber pulled from the left rear. Earnhardt complains of lack of ability to hear team on radio.
Caution 2
Lap 29: Caution No. 2 for debris in Turn 2.Lap 28: Hamlin now in second place as he looks to become the first rookie to make the Chase.
Lap 24: Kenseth back in 10th after near contact with Jeff Gordon.
Lap 20: Burton passes Gordon for fourth behind Hamlin, who is driving the same car he won both Pocono races with earlier this season.
Lap 19: Kenseth lifts and loses a couple of spots.
Lap 17: A three-way, three-wide fight for second ends with Busch in second, followed by Hamlin, Kenseth and Gordon.
Lap 16: Kurt Busch back up to third and challenging Gordon for second.
Lap 14: Green flag.
Lap 11: The entire field pits, as a lot of cars take just two tires, including Kasey Kahne, who takes the lead and picks up five valuable bonus points. He's followed out of the pits by Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Elliott Sadler, Hamlin, Earnhardt, Vickers, Bowyer and Jeff Burton. Mark Martin is 24th, Tony Stewart 21st, Jimmie Johnson 19th and Kevin Harvick 16th.
Lap 11: Busch is leading under caution, but prior to the yellow, Earnhardt had charged all the way to second place.
Caution 1
Lap 10: Caution No. 1 as Robby Gordon has a flat left-rear tire and spins out in Turn 4. The rest of the field manages to evade Gordon's spinning Chevrolet.Lap 7: Busch's lead over Vickers is 0.707 seconds. Denny Hamlin passes Truex for fifth place. Hamlin is one of the hottest drivers with one victory and six top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts.
Lap 5: Kurt Busch leads Vickers, Bowyer, Earnhardt and Martin Truex, Jr. Kasey Kahne is 12th.
Lap 3: Riggs has a problem and is slowing.
Lap 2: Busch's lead after 1 lap is 0.731 seconds. Earnhardt up to fourth.
Lap 1: Green flag. Kurt Busch breaks away cleanly from Brian Vickers and Clint Bowyer to lead the first lap. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Scott Riggs round out the top five on the first lap.
Ken Schrader and Scott Wimmer will drop to the back of the field for an engine change.
Today is Sterling Marlin's 700th NASCAR Cup start, which ranks him 10th all-time.
Marlin is one of only 11 drivers who has raced in all of the 12th prior races here. But he's the only one of the 11 who has never led a lap here.
8:06 p.m.: The cars on track for three pace laps.
The big challenge tonight is engine durability. Greg Biffle had a lead of nearly 10 seconds in the February race here, but then his engine blew. Tony Stewart lost a motor in that race, too. If that happens tonight to one of the guys in positions 4-10, they could easily fall out of the Chase.
8:02 p.m.: Engines started. Time to go racing!!!
Jo from Florence, S.C.: Hi Tom! When does the NASCAR limitation on 4 teams per owner actually go into effect? Roush has five teams in the Cup race today and (disgustingly) had six teams in the Cup test session--excuse me, Busch race--last night. Has there been any talk of limiting the TOTAL number of teams an owner can run on a race weekend?
Tom Jensen: Jo, thanks for the question. The limitation is in effect, but Roush's fifth car is grandfathered in - once he loses a driver or sponsor, the fifth car goes away. As far as I know, there's been no talk of limiting total teams.
Jay from Macon, Ga.: Who determines if a car is safe to resume driving in the event it is involved in a crash?
Tom Jensen: Jay, glad you could join us at FOX for the race. NASCAR inspectors have the final say whether or not a car is safe to return to the track after repairs are made. Also, NASCAR pre-sets a minimum speed at each track. If a driver wrecks, his crew gets one - and only one - chance to meet the minimum speed. If he can't meet it the first time out, he's parked for the rest of the race.
Pre-race It's 102 degrees in Fontana, Calif., where the Sony HD 500 is getting set to run at California Speedway.
The sun will set midway through the race, meaning setups will change radically as the race wears on. The trick will be to be fast enough to stay in contention for the first half of the race and make the right adjustments to win at the end.
The track is 2.0 miles long and the race will be 250 laps long.
Diane from Miami: Do you believe in team orders? Do you think a team owner who has a driver that can make the Chase would have one of his other drivers hinder or physically interfere with a driver currently qualifying for the Chase?
Tom Jensen: Diane, welcome to FOX! Yes, team orders COULD play an outcome in a race, but I don't think NASCAR would ever tolerate a driver from one team deliberately affecting the outcome of the championship by, say, wrecking another car on purpose. On the other hand, pay attention to things like caution-flag periods. Let's say Team X has a driver competing for a championship and has its star driver in danger of going a lap down. Would one of its other drivers way back in pack intentionally bring out a caution? Not saying it would happen, but it sure could.
Dave from High Rolls, N.M.: Why are there 43 starting cars in each race? Who came up with this number?
Tom Jensen: Dave: Geez, you guys have some tough ones today! Originally, NASCAR allowed pretty much anyone who showed up to race — some early races featured 75 or more cars. Over time, NASCAR settled on 36 cars for short tracks and 42 for larger tracks. Eventually, 42 became the standard at all tracks in the mid-1990s. The number grew to 43 with the introduction of the past champion's provisional and since 1998, the size of the fields has been fixed at 43 cars.
Rob from Gastonia, N.C.: Don't know if I should go with Kenseth or Edwards in my fantasy league. I can only pick one. What do you think?
Tom Jensen: Rob, great question and a tough one, too! Edwards has finished 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th in his four races here and Kenseth won here in the spring. Personally, I believe in momentum, which means I'd take Kenseth, but they are both really, really good here, with not much difference between them.
Laura from Burton, Mich.: How can Penske Racing be struggling so bad, trying to come up with good finishes when they have the money to improve their cars? Sony, Alltel, Miller Lite plus a lot of other great sponsor shelling out millions. I don't get it.
Tom Jensen: Laura, welcome and thanks for raising an excellent issue. Here's the deal: NASCAR is a people business. Every big-budget team has access to the same technology, but it's how the people on the team work together that makes a difference. Kurt Busch is new at the No. 2 car this season, as is his crew chief, Roy McCauley, and an awful lot of members of his team. It takes time for all of them to learn to work together. Also, the setups have changed radically this year, so what the team used to run is no longer fast. All in all, it's been a year of adjustment. I would note that consistency has an effect on teams, too. Busch is 14th in points right now. The 13 guys ahead of him all drove for their current teams last year.
Jim from Lakewood: Is there any chance of Kenny Wallace having a decent run at California and finishing on the lead lap?
Tom Jensen: Jim, hello and thanks for being with us. Kenny Wallace will have an uphill battle at California, just as his team does everywhere. He's driving for a small, independent team with a budget and resources that are a fraction of what the big boys have. That makes it awfully hard to compete, which is why Wallace's best finish this year is a 25th at Phoenix.
Gentry from San Gabriel, Calif.: Hello Mr. Jensen, can you explain why Juan Pablo Montoya will not be able to drive on the superspeedway? I don't understand why new drivers need to get qualified to drive stock cars.
Tom Jensen: Gentry, welcome! Glad you could be with us here at FOX. NASCAR evaluates drivers to make sure they don't get in too far over their heads in competition they aren't ready to handle. It's primarily for young, inexperienced drivers. In Montoya's case, he shouldn't have any trouble getting clearance for the superspeedways.
Julie from Terre Haute, Ind.: Hello Tom, I was wondering if you could answer this question for me: Why is that Tony, Carl, and Matt get into trouble and get fined and whatever else but when it comes to Hendricks guys nothing is ever done? Jeff Gordon did not get into trouble when he spun Matt out and I don't understand why. GOOOOO TONY!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)
Tom Jensen: Julie, thanks for the question. I think your favortism is showing just a little — or maybe a lot. As I have said before in this space, Stewart intentionally wrecked Matt Kenseth in the season-opening Daytona 500 at nearly 200 mph, and NASCAR did absolutely nothing about it. No fine, no penalty, no visit to the hauler. Nothing. And when he wrecked Clint Bowyer at Pocono, his penalty was to be held one lap. Stewart is a great driver, don't get me wrong, but if anyone gets a free pass from NASCAR, he does.
Robert from Pasco, Wash.: Do you not think that gossip can do more harm than good when comes to a driver and his focus on the Chase, such as the rumor that Mark Martin is going to the No. 88 car?
Tom Jensen: Robert, welcome to FOXSports.com! A successful NASCAR Nextel Cup driver has to make a lot of adjustments in his life, including dealing with fans, the media and, inevitably, gossip and rumors. The best thing a driver can do is stay focused on the job at hand. At least he has some control over that, unlike rumors, which he has no control at all over. But, yes, gossip can be harmful if a driver doesn't tune it out.
Sarah from Rogers: If Dale Earnhardt Jr. does well in this race and wins again in Richmond, will all of those naysayers finally admit that Dale Jr is back, and he will do well in the Chase? I think — and have thought since the Daytona 500 — that Dale Jr. will make the chase.
Tom Jensen: Hey, Sarah, glad you can be with us. I think most people agree that regardless of what happens tonight and next week that Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his team have made a strong rebound from last year and have shown real improvement. As I noted earlier, the Chase format is such that any driver who gets hot — and, more importantly, avoids bad finishes — stands a shot of winning. And Junior has momentum, with three finishes of sixth or better in the last four races.
Clint from Tonasket, Wash.: Piggybacking on the Kyle Busch comment. How do you think it affects NASCAR when drivers who are — should we say — not as well liked as some others contend for and possibly win a championship? It is no secret that Kyle seems to be following in Kurt's shoes, at least in the lack of fan popularity. Do you think NASCAR likes the new faces having a shot, or would it be better for one of the most popular drivers to win it all?
Tom Jensen: Clint, thanks for the question. What NASCAR Chairman Brian France has said on several occasions is that he wants another Alan Kulwicki as champion — an underdog who can come out of nowhere and win it all. That simply isn't going to happen in this age of multi-car teams. David Gilliland might win one Busch race with a part-time team, but no way does a small, independent team contend for a Cup title. I do think NASCAR likes having new faces in the mix, but it also wants its Big Three in there: Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart. And in the last 11 years, Hendrick Motorsports (1995-98, 2001), Joe Gibbs Racing (2000, '02, '05) and Roush Racing (2003-04) have combined to win 10 championships. And those three teams right now have seven of the top 10 drivers in points.
Michael from Lewisburg W.V.: Morning Tom, Dale Jr. beat out Matt Kenseth to win two Busch titles. Matt has one Cup title and is racing well enough to win another. Jr. has no Cup title and is perilously close to not making the Chase again. Other than Eury Jr., are there any other members on Jr. or Matt's crew from those two Busch seasons?
Tom Jensen: Michael, welcome to race day and FOX Sports Instant Analysis. There were a lot of guys around then who are here now. Tony Eury, Sr. was Earnhardt's crew chief and Tony Jr. was his car chief. Kevin 'Bono' Manion, who is now crew chief for Martin Truex, Jr. was on Earnhardt's Busch crew, too. Also, Robbie Reiser, Matt Kenseth's crew chief today was his car owner and crew chief back then in the Busch Series. I'm sure there are a fair number of other crew guys at Roush Racing and DEI who can trace their roots back then.
Eddie from Baltimore, Md.: Do you think Robby Gordon will join an alliance with Robert Yates Racing?
Tom Jensen: Eddie, thanks for the question. Robby Gordon said Friday at California Speedway that he had a deal all done, contracts drawn up and everything, and on the day it was supposed to be signed, he got a call from Robert Yates' attorney saying the deal was on hold. Robby still wants to get it done, and it could help both teams. But in NASCAR, as in life, a deal isn't a deal until everyone signs off on it. We'll see.
Bill from Middletown, Ohio: Hey Tom, what do you think of Kyle Busch winning the championship this year? They have some mighty good tracks in the final 10 to get it done. I think he's the biggest sleeper in the field...first race is Loudon where he won just a few weeks back plus just look at the rest of the tracks.
Tom Jensen: Bill, great question! Over the last 10 races, Kyle Busch has been red hot. In fact, he's third in points over that stretch, behind only Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon. Busch has matured considerably in the middle of the season, and I think he has a great chance to go the distance. That said, the nature of the Chase — 10 drivers separated by only 45 points — makes it a crapshoot.
Nicole from Alvin, Texas: OK, I don't know why everyone doubts Kasey in making the Chase. I believe he can, but why cant anyone else? It's really getting on my nerves. I'm sure if Dale Jr. was in 11th, they would be saying he would make it in, but why not KASEY?
Tom Jensen: Hi Nicole, glad you could be with us today. It should be an exciting race. Can Kasey Kahne make the Chase? Absolutely. But he's going to have to hope someone in front of him has problems both in California today and at Richmond next week. He has to make up 90 points in two weeks, which is a lot. Most troubling is the fact that he hasn't been running up front as much in the last few weeks as he did in the first half of the year. His average finish over the last 10 races is 19.3. If he wants to make the Chase, he needs to improve that average dramatically.
Shirley from Peru, Ind.: Why is NASCAR so willing to kiss the butt of California? Busch race starting at 10:00 pm tonight?!!! I'm old and go to bed at 11:00 or 11:30 pm. Cup race starting as late as 8:00 pm? Come on. This is just stupid!!!! Even in Lala land the races could start two or three hours earlier. Give us old folks a break.
Tom Jensen: It's not that NASCAR is willing to kiss the butt of California. It's more to accommodate television. But I agree... the Busch race at 10 p.m. ET is real, real dumb.
Pre-race notes: Sony HD 500 at California Speedway
There are 13 drivers mathematically eligible for the 10 positions in the Chase for the Nextel Cup. The Chase field will be set after next Saturday's race in Richmond.Only 48 points separate positions four through 10. Only 138 points separate positions four through 11. Kasey Kahne is 90 points out of 10th place.
The drivers in positions four through 10 can all fall out of the top 10 after California.
Any driver who leaves California with a 191-point or higher lead over 10th place will be locked into the Chase.
Matt Kenseth has won the last two NASCAR Nextel Cup race. In the process, he has trimmed Jimmie Johnson's points lead from 124 to 7. Johnson and Kenseth are the only two drivers who are locked into the Chase.
Over the last 10 Nextel Cup races, here's who has scored the most points:
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Kyle Busch
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Jeff Burton
8. Carl Edwards
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10. Kurt Busch
Carl Edwards has finished in the top 10 in all four of his career starts at California Speedway.
Mark Martin leads all drivers with six top-10 finishes in the 12 races at California.
Rick Hendrick has five wins at the track, the most of any team owner. Jack Roush is second with four.
Jeff Gordon has three wins and Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch each have one for Hendrick.
There have been nine different race winners in the last nine races at California. Gordon is the only repeat winner in the track's history.
Sterling Marlin will make his 700th career start on Sunday. He is 11th on the all-time list.
A Dodge has never won a Cup race at California Speedway. Ford has seven victories at California while Chevrolet has five. Rusty Wallace posted the best finish for Dodge with a third-place in 2003, which was duplicated by Ryan Newman in the first race of 2004.
Matt Kenseth captured his second consecutive victory last Saturday, giving Ford its fifth win of the season. Kenseth leads all Ford drivers with four victories. Chevrolet has 14 wins on the season and leads the manufacturer's championship by 37 points over Ford, 180-143. Jimmie Johnson leads all Chevrolet drivers with four victories. Kasey Kahne is tied for the series lead in victories with Johnson. His four are the highest among Dodge drivers.
Kyle Busch is the defending race winner for the Sony HD 500.
Mark Martin has six top-10 finishes, including one victory, in 12 races at California. He also failed to finish three times. One of Martin's DNFs was his first top-10 — when he ran out of gas on the final lap of the inaugural race in 1997, yet still finished 10th.
Seven of the last nine races at California Speedway have been won from starting positions outside the top- 15, including the 2006 spring race won by Matt Kenseth from the 31st starting position, the deepest starting position of a race winner there.
Jeff Burton has posted four Bud Poles in 2006 — twice his career total of two for the previous 10 years since he posted his career-first Bud Pole in 1996. Kurt Busch five Bud Poles this season, but like Burton had just two coming into 2006.
Jimmie Johnson (8.58) and Matt Kenseth (9.63) are the only drivers to compete in every race this season and average a top-10 finish over those races.
Petty Enterprises has posted five top-10 finishes in 2006. The last time that Petty drivers posted more than three top-10s in a season was 1999: John Andretti (10) and Kyle Petty (nine). Two Petty cars qualified in the top 10 at second Bristol (Bobby Labonte - third) and Kyle Petty - eighth) — the first time Petty Enterprises has had two top-10 qualifiers since Talladega in October 2001 (John Andretti - seventh and Kyle Petty - eighth).
Denny Hamlin has scored top-15 finishes in 14 of the last 15 races. He has scored six straight top-10 finishes.
Kevin Harvick has posted eight straight top-15 finishes. Harvick has been running at the finish in the last 36 races.
Kevin from Germantown, Md.: I'm not sure what to expect in this Nextel Cup race? Is this going to be another ho-hum points race, or will we see some payback in this race? I'm worried the good racing won't start until the Chase starts?
Tom Jensen: Kevin: Glad you be here with us at FOX. What should you expect on Sunday? Kasey Kahne driving the wheels off his car, trying to make the Chase. California is fast enough (180+ mph laps) that payback shouldn't be much of an issue. Honestly, the guys in the top 10 will just mostly be trying to protect their positions in the Chase.
Matt from Orlando, Fla.: Is that Car of Tomorrow a definite for the upcoming seasons? It's the ugliest thing on four wheels. Please tell me it's going to change.
Tom Jensen: Matt, I appreciate your question and your interest, but it looks like the Car of Tomorrow is a go. There still likely will be some tweaks at the one-and-a-half and two-mile speedways it doesn't suck up in the draft like NASCAR had hoped. But you will see it in 16 races next season. That will make for some mighty unpredictable racing. And as you said, it is ugly.
Jim from Richmond Va.: Why is the Busch race set for 10PM EST?! Does NASCAR or the track (or both) schedule the race time?
Tom Jensen: Jim, thanks for being with us. NASCAR sets the time for the races to start, in conjunction with its TV partners. Why they think a 10 p.m. ET start for the Busch race is beyond me. Not a good idea at all.
Floyd from Abilene, Texas: Tom, Is it my imagination or has Jimmie started driving, toward the end of the season, too conservatively over the past two years. Seems to me that he has gotten a lead in the standings just to slow down at the end of the year to lose the thing. I hope he turns it up a notch this year. I love the guy and want to see him smoke the field from here on out. I agree with Todd by the way, Matt is the driver to beat. I think this season is Matt's to win or lose.
Tom Jensen: Floyd, thanks for the question, which is a great one. Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 Hendrick Chevrolet have performed below their own lofty standard in late summer. After winning the Brickyard 400 to open the month of August, Johnson finished 17th, 13th and 10th in the next three races. Last year in August, Johnson finished 38th, 5th, 10th and 36th. The last four August races in 2004, he ran 36th, 40th, 40th and 3rd. But in prior years, his bad finishes were mostly the result of incidents of one sort or another. I do agree he needs to turn the wick up this year and not lose the considerable momentum he's built so far. California should be a good test for him this weekend.
Chris from Latham, N.Y.: Do you think that Erin Crocker will race in the Nextel Cup Series in 2007, 2008 or 2009?
Tom Jensen: Chris, glad you could be with us here at FOX. So far in 2006, there have been 17 NASCAR Craftsman Series Truck races. A total of 22 drivers have qualifed for all 17 races. Of those 22, Crocker is ranked 22nd, behind Kerry Earnhardt and Boston Reid. She, Earnhardt and Reid are also the only three full-time NCTS drivers to make every race and not score a single top-10 finish. NASCAR racing is performance-based and results-based. For her to move up and find a sponsor willing to foot the enormous bill at the Cup level, she will have to show dramatic improvement in her results. So far, those results have not been there.
Todd from Sugar Hill: Now that Matt Kenseth has closed the gap to just seven points — where for most of the season it has been over 100 points — do you think Jimmie Johnson is starting to feel the pressure? Will he fold again? I think he will. I also think Matt is the driver to beat currently.
Tom Jensen: Todd, greetings and welcome to FOX. Your question is the key story line heading into the Chase: Will Jimmie Johnson's performance fall off, and will that allow Matt Kenseth to sneak in? If it was just the two of them competing for the title, I'd say that would be a strong possibility. Right now, I make Kenseth the favorite. But with nine drivers separated by 45 points, literally anything can happen over the final 10 weeks of the season. One other guy I would definitely keep an eye on is Kevin Harvick, who has the most points of any driver over the last 10 races. During that same period, Jimmie Johnson is only sixth, while Kenseth is fourth. Second is Jeff Gordon.
Teik from Dallas, Texas: What was the heated exchange about between Scott Riggs and Jeff Gordon after the race at Bristol? Will it carry over this weekend?
Tom Jensen: Thanks for the question. In the closing laps at Dover, Scott Riggs' car was much faster than Jeff Gordon's, and Riggs thought Gordon should have let him by sooner than he did. But it was Bristol in the closing laps and Gordon was racing for a spot in the Chase — where every point matters — so he fought Riggs as hard as he could. I expect no problems in California, where speeds are nearly 65 miles per hour faster on average.
Peter from Parsippany, N.J.: Hey Tom, do you know what the record is for consecutive races won? Matt Kenseth has won the last two Nextel Cup races and also the Busch race from this past week for three in a row. Has anyone else done that?
Tom Jensen: Hello to you in Parsippany, N.J., one of my childhood homes. The record for consecutive victories was set in 1967, when Richard Petty won 10 races in a row and 27 over the course of the season, records that surely never will be broken. In 1991, Harry Gant won four races in a row, two Busch and two Cup: Richmond on Sept. 6 and 7, and Dover on Sept. 14 and 15.