by Ryan McGee

2006 Rewind

0 wins, 0 poles, 2 top fives, 8 top tens, 14th in points

Casey Mears started last season so surprisingly strong (dig that alliteration) that the strength of his opening stanza — three top 10s in the first three races — almost carried him clear on into The Chase. But in the end, a brutal summer stretch was too much to overcome and the nephew of Rick faded to 14th.

Ordinal out of range

TOP 20 DRIVER COUNTDOWN 19. Juan Pablo Montoya 18. Scott Riggs 17. Bobby Labonte 16. Casey Mears 14. Dale Jarrett 13. Greg Biffle 11. Kyle Busch 10. Jeff Burton 9. Kurt Busch/Ryan Newman 6. Carl Edwards 5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 4. Jeff Gordon Sign up now and create your free fantasy team and league. Ordinal out of range Watch the Daytona 500 on FOX, February 18 at 2 p.m. ET. More NASCAR

Still, the finish was easily the best of his four-year run at Chip Ganassi Racing, an eight-spot improvement over 2004 and 2005. Even when he officially became a lame-duck driver at midseason, Mears managed to convince his team that he was fully committed to the No. 42 car, a pledge he backed up with three top-seven finishes over the season's final eight races, including a near-win at Chicagoland.

Why He Will Finish 16th

Two factors are working against Mears as he enters his fifth season in Nextel Cup competition. No. 1: lack of consistency. His eight top-10 finishes were scattered erratically throughout the season, never allowing his team to gain any traction. His season-starting streak of three top 10s is still the longest of his career. In fact, he's only managed to put together back-to-back top 10s two other times in 144 career Cup starts.

No. 2: the curse of the No. 25 car. You can dismiss the idea of bad luck all you want, but the numbers are indisputable.

Not since Tim Richmond was behind the wheel has the No. 25 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy been a legitimate title contender, even while teammates in the Nos. 5, 24, and 48 rides were combining for six championships and a bazillion wins.

That fact is even more amazing when you consider the men who have sat behind the wheel — Ken Schrader, Ricky Craven, Wally Dallenbach, Jerry Nadeau, Joe Nemechek, and Brian Vickers.

Even when the car wins, it seems to do so under of a cloud of confusion. (See "Vickers, Talladega, big wreck, teammate mad, October 2006".)

The All-Telling, All-Knowing Stat: 25.4

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That was Casey's average finish over five races between mid-July and mid-August 2006, including a best of 21st at New Hampshire on July 16 and a worst of 35th at Watkins Glen on Aug. 13. That single month of pain dropped him from 15th to 19th in points, basically torpedoing his chances at a spot in The Chase.

Fantasy Lock: Texas

His career average finish at Vegas may be slightly better (9.5 vs. 10.5), but Mears has posted personal bests in both top fives (two) and top 10s (four) deep in the heart of Texas. Four of his last five starts have ended up seventh or better and since his shaky 27th place debut in 2003, he's averaged a seventh-place run.