2008 NASCAR driver rankings: Nos. 10-1
by Mike Harmon, FOXSports.com
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If you flipped through your cable dial over the weekend, you probably ran into it one or more times. You immediately set the remote control down and wait for the identity of Keyser Soze to be revealed.
In the sporting world, we apply the term to the top-performing players and teams.
"Who will compete for the Super Bowl crown?"
"Oh, the usual suspects ... New England, Indianapolis, Dallas."
"Who will be the top players selected in a fantasy baseball draft?"
"Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, etc."
When it comes to the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, we immediately spew off a short list of drivers when it comes to contenders for the championship and most valuable drivers. We mention the Hendrick drivers, a litany of past champions, and the hugely popular Dale Earnhardt Jr. If left to ramble, we'll wring our hands in excitement over Juan Pablo Montoya's second year in the circuit and bounce-back hopes for drivers such as Kasey Kahne.
And, of course, if there's an accident, we'll look for one of a handful of drivers. You know who they are.
The NASCAR on FOX team completes their preseason look at the Sprint Cup Series with a look at drivers ranked in the top 10.
10. Clint Bowyer, Richard Childress Racing
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| Larry McReynolds ( / FOX Sports) |
NASCAR on FOX race analyst Larry McReynolds: Certainly Clint and the entire No. 07 Jack Daniels team was the most pleasant surprise of 2007. I think that they just need to maintain their position and not fall back because they started bobbling a little bit at the end of last season.
This team just needs to get back to what got them into the Chase last year and how they were in the first half of the playoff last year and get back to Victory Lane. I think he can win a race or two if they go back to where they were.
Harmon's fantasy take: Fans and fantasy auto racing participants undoubtedly expected Bowyer to perform more consistently in his second season on the circuit. But they couldn't have possibly anticipated a run to third in the final points standings. He completed 17 top-10 rides in 2007 and, most importantly, completed every race. He raced to 23 top-15 finishes (30 top 20s), including eight top-12 runs during the Chase.
It'll be difficult for him to repeat his tremendous success in 2008. The depth of the Sprint Cup field and sheer luck can offset even the strongest run. He avoided wrecks and went through the season without the performance issues experienced by so many of his peers. In his bid to leap over the Hendrick, Roush and Gibbs drivers, Bowyer will need to be more aggressive, and that portends to an early exit in one or more races. I believe he'll make the Chase, but there will be more bumps along the way.
9. Kurt Busch, Penske Racing
McReynolds: I'm sure Kurt and crew chief Pat Tryson are one of the combinations that are devastated that we no longer race the old car, because they were spot on week in and week out with that old race car.
They didn't quite seem to run as good with the Car of Tomorrow last season. Leading into this year, though, there's probably been nobody who has tested the COT more than Kurt Busch and the No. 2 Miller Lite team. Now, with Tryson and Busch getting a fresh start together from the beginning of the season and the chemistry that seemed to develop between the two, there's no question that Busch can and probably will be a championship contender. They just need to make sure they get this COT figured out quickly.
Harmon's fantasy take: The former Sprint Cup Series champion opened the year with a rough finish at Daytona. Busch qualified fourth and led 95 laps before finishing 41st. He proceeded to run outside of the top 25 in two of the next four races to dig a hole. It was one of his three truly difficult stretches during the season. Following the Nextel All-Star Challenge, he raced 21st or worse in five of the next six events. He later finished 25th or worse in four of the 10 Chase events. Despite those four subpar efforts in the Chase, Busch still managed to finish seventh in the point standings on the strength of his 11 top-10 finishes (two wins) in the final 19 events. In his six full seasons on the circuit, he's averaged 16.5 top-10 finishes. He'll challenge for a slot in the Chase with strong weekly efforts for fantasy owners.
8. Kevin Harvick, Richard Childress Racing
McReynolds: Harvick has to find consistency. That is a problem that has plagued Kevin and the No. 29 Shell Pennzoil team for several years. They've got to hit on all eight cylinders week in and week out, not two races in a row and before struggling for five races. They have to find that consistency.
With that team being together for that long a period of time, the resources that are available to them and the fact that we know Chevrolet is good this a race team that realistically should be winning more than one race a year.
The good thing about Kevin is that he won two of the biggest races that there is last year the Daytona 500 and the All-Star Challenge. But they seemed to struggle with the Car of Tomorrow for the most part last year, so they have to roll their sleeves up and go to work.
Certainly, nobody knows that better than Kevin and crew chief Todd Berrier.
Harmon's fantasy take: The No. 29 Richard Childress Racing Chevy started the season with an historic run at Daytona. Harvick raced through the pack from his 34th-place qualifying slot to capture his first Daytona victory. It also marked his only victory of the season. He proceeded to struggle through his next six events, cracking the top 15 only once (he had another huge run at the Food City 500, where he improved 36 slots to finish fourth) with four runs of 25th or worse.
He found his stride beginning with the Subway Fresh Fit 500. He finished 10th in that event and rolled to 13 top 10s during the balance of the schedule (16 top 15s). Amazingly, Harvick completed all 36 events and has had only two DNFs in the past three seasons. He's finished 14th or better in the final point standings in six of his seven seasons on the circuit. Fantasy owners can't expect frequent runs to Victory Lane (he's won two or fewer races in six of his seven years), but they can anticipate him to charge toward the top 10 (14.4 top 10s per season).
7. Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing
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| Mike Joy ( / FOX Sports) |
NASCAR on FOX race analyst Mike Joy: Joe Gibbs and his son J.D. have a well-earned reputation for personnel management and getting the most out of their people. They'll be tested this year, for sure.
Busch has a tremendous amount of driving talent, but he didn't fit well in the Hendrick organization. Everyone hopes he'll have fewer growing pains at Gibbs. If Kyle can earn back the respect of his peers on the track, he has a bright future in the sport.
Harmon's fantasy take: It's no secret that Busch's aggressive driving style has caused friction in the garage in the past. However, we've seen Busch mature as a driver and become one of the circuit's top young talents. He's raced to 38 top-10 finishes in the past two seasons, with 21 top fives and only four DNFs. He joins Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin on a team that'll attempt to match muscle with the Hendrick All-Star unit. He finished the 2007 season with five top-five finishes during the Chase (six top 10s) to capture fifth place. Busch won't relinquish any of his trademark aggressiveness running alongside Stewart. The major challenge facing him in 2008 isn't the change of teams, it's the move by Joe Gibbs Racing to switch to Toyota Camrys.
6. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing
Joy: Its hard to figure what happened to Hamlin in the second half of 2007. Like new teammate Kyle Busch, Denny has tremendous talent and is a potential winning wheelman. If he and his team can again find the focus and dynamic that carried them through his first Cup season, Denny will be a threat.
Harmon's fantasy take: Expectations for Hamlin and the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota were sky high following his phenomenal third-place finish in the point standings as a rookie. He opened his sophomore season with a difficult 28th-place run at Daytona. He rebounded with six top 10s (eight top 15s) in his next 10 rides to ascend to the upper-tier of the point standings. He experienced several difficult runs during the summer, but his overall performance put him in prime position for a big run in the Chase. Unfortunately, he was unable to sustain his momentum and finished 20th or worse in five of the 10 Chase events (seven runs at 15th or worse). He would end the season in 12th place.
It was a difficult stretch to end a promising year, but I anticipate a strong rebound. Hamlin owns 38 top 10s in two seasons with an average 14th-place finish. Fantasy participants receive the added bonus that he's only failed to finish two races in the past two years.
5. Carl Edwards, Roush Fenway Racing
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| Steve Byrnes ( / FOX Sports) |
NASCAR on FOX and SPEED host and reporter Steve Byrnes: Don't be misled by his six-pack abs, record company, or brief acting gigs. Carl is real serious about winning races. His run-in with Matt Kenseth after the race at Martinsville was a learning experience.
He is here to win, and win he will.
Harmon's fantasy take: The season started strangely for Edwards and the No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford, as he finished outside the top 20 in back-to-back weeks at Daytona and California Speedway. He quickly left those difficulties in the dust with back-to-back top 10s and started his ascent in the point standings. He earned 23 top-15 finishes in 2007, with 15 top 10s and 11 huge runs inside the top five (three wins). He's been one of the circuit's top stars in his three full seasons, averaging 17.7 top 10s per season and 11.3 top fives.
Although Edwards experienced some difficulty down the stretch with three of his DNFs in his final 11 races, he did earn four top fives in the Chase to seal his ninth-place finish in the points standings. He consistently battles to the front and will be a contender for the title in 2008.
4. Tony Stewart, Joe Gibbs Racing
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Joy: Having Tony in the driver's seat for preseason testing has made the No. 20 team better prepared for 2008, if maybe a little worn down. Going into Daytona, their batteries are recharged, and Tony and Zippy are ready to win. Stewart has the most raw racing talent in NASCAR, so if the Toyota has the horsepower and Tony keeps his eye on the prize, he can win a third Sprint Cup.
Harmon's fantasy take: Never without controversy and always one to watch on race day, Stewart and the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team had a roller-coaster ride in 2007. He rebounded from his "down" 2006 season when he finished 11th in the final point standings to capture sixth place in 2007. He produced four more top-10 finishes than he did in 2006 (although he raced to two fewer wins and four fewer top fives).
However, he had to finish the year with thoughts of what might have been. He raced to nine finishes at 25th place or worse (three finishes of 30th place or worse in the Chase). It'll be an interesting year at Joe Gibbs Racing following the change to Toyota Camrys for the 2008 season. Stewart's long been one of the most feared and revered drivers on the circuit. He won't hold his tongue if the equipment causes any issues, and we'll get a good read on his feelings for the car early. I have no doubt he'll accelerate the learning curve.
3. Jeff Gordon, Hendrick Motorsports
Joy: Last year was a big one for Jeff. Becoming a new dad is a momentous event, and that became a motivator, not a distraction, for him, Steve Letarte is maturing as a crew chief, and the 24 & 48 shop at Hendrick will have all the tools and pieces they need to win. That means the last-lap passing, win-at-all-costs Jeff needs to return to the seat in 2008 for his "drive for five" to become a reality. His toughest competition will again be his protégé he's going to have to out-race Jimmie to win another Cup.
Harmon's fantasy take: Gordon had to have felt snake-bitten in 2007, as he watched teammate Jimmie Johnson complete a phenomenal end of the season run to snatch the Nextel Cup championship. It was a great duel down the stretch, with Gordon capturing back-to-back wins in his effort to hold off Johnson. Johnson then ripped off four consecutive wins to make his move. Gordon had his best season since 1998, racing to 30 top-10 finishes in his 36 starts with seven poles, six wins and 21 top fives.
Hendrick's clearly in a position to dominate the field once again with Johnson, Gordon and new teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. pushing one another to even greater heights. (Is that possible?) While it will be difficult to approach last season's dominance, Gordon remains a weekly option for owners. He's earned top-10 finishes in 62.4 percent of his career starts.
2. Matt Kenseth, Roush Fenway Racing
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| Matt Kenseth had a big season in '07, and this year could prove to be even better. (Sam Greenwood / Getty Images) |
Joy: Matt and Carl Edwards appear to be Ford's best hopes for 2008. Last year it didn't appear that his car was always as good as Matt's was. New crew chief Chip Bolin will shake things up a bit. If Ford has the horsepower, Carl and Matt could fight for the Cup (on the track, not off) all the way to Homestead. Low key away from the track and liking it that way, Matt is a focused, proven winner when he has the right tools and his team makes the right choices. Can he accomplish in '08 what his beloved Packers couldn't?
Harmon's fantasy take: The former series champion is eager to challenge the Hendrick team for a spot at the top of the leaderboard. The remarkable stories of Gordon's consistency and Johnson's 10 victories obscured the fact that Kenseth posted another tremendous season. He produced 22 top-10 finishes, including 13 top fives and two wins. Since ascending to the upper-tier of drivers in 2002, Kenseth's averaged 20 top-10 finishes per year with 11.6 top fives. The No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford team could have folded down the stretch, when it experienced a four-race meltdown during the Chase. He raced to four consecutive finishes of 26th place or worse and saw two runs end early because of an engine issue and accident. The team rallied to complete five consecutive top-five finishes, including a season-ending win at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Taken further, he led 351 laps in the season's final three events. He's primed for a huge year.
1. Jimmie Johnson, Hendrick Motorsports
Joy: Cale Yarborough is the only driver to three-peat consecutive Cup titles, but Jimmie could match that mark this season. He and Chad Knaus will each maintain their keen edge and drive to succeed. However, there were changes in personnel this winter, so this is not quite the same team that carried them to two straight Cups.
If enough of the magic and motivation remain intact, Jimmie's the favorite to repeat.
Harmon's fantasy take: What else can you say? Johnson and his No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy team took racing to a new level during the Chase to claim his second consecutive championship. That isn't to say he hadn't run well during the balance of the season. Johnson owned four wins and 13 top 20s in the season's first 18 events, but a two-race mini-funk in July (both accident-marred ends) forced the team to refocus and apply pressure to Gordon. Johnson proceeded to peel off 11 top-five finishes in the season's final 16 events, including four straight wins in the final five races of the year. His stupendous close to the season brought Johnson his second straight championship and his sixth straight finish inside the top five in the final points standings. Johnson's averaged a ridiculous 22.3 top 10s and 5.5 wins per season. Naturally, you'd love to start him every week.







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