Power Rankings: The season starts here

by JORGE A. MONDACA, FOXSports.com


Updated: February 21, 2008, 12:39 PM EST 64 comments

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It's odd, following two weekends of racing at Daytona International Speedway, most everybody in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series garage will say the same thing: "California is the start of the season."

As funny as that sounds, the reasoning is sound. The 2008 schedule features 36 points-paying races, four of which take place on superspeedways at Daytona. Meanwhile, intermediate tracks like California Speedway, the host of this weekend's Auto Club 500 on FOX (Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET) and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the host of next week's race, comprise the bulk of the Sprint Cup Series schedule — 14 races total.

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No disrespect intended to California Speedway, but nobody will ever say that this weekend's race is more important than the Daytona 500. However, California Speedway may offer a clearer picture of who will be in championship contention come year's end. Need proof? Last year's top 12 featured nine drivers who would end up in the championship-deciding Chase, one driver (Mark Martin) who was participating part-time (and could have made the Chase had he run the full season), and the driver who would finish 13th in the championship standings at the end of the season (and would win this year's Daytona 500).

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Power Rankings heading toward this week's Sprint Cup race at California

1. Matt Kenseth — 113.9 driver rating: Kenseth had a car capable of a top-10 run at Daytona, but poor luck led him to be right behind his teammate David Ragan right before he lost control, creating a lot of damage to both vehicles.

Should luck be on his side this weekend, look for a great weekend from Kenseth. The driver of the No. 17 DeWalt Ford is the two-time defending winner of the spring California Speedway race. Combine that with the fact that the Roush Fenway Racing organization looked good during the preseason tests at the 2-mile speedway and it makes for a weekend with very high expectations.

2. Jimmie Johnson — 111.3 driver rating: It could have been worse for Jimmie Johnson at Daytona, at least he improved on his 2007 500 finish (39th) with his 27th-place run on Sunday.

He comes to his home state with the positive feeling of being the most recent California winner — having taken the checkered flag last September. That result continued his streak of strong runs at Fontana, where he has competed 10 times and has yet to finish worse than 16th in his Sprint Cup Series career. To date, he has two wins, six top fives and six top 10s to his record at the Speedway.

3. Kyle Busch — 109.3 driver rating: Busch had what was arguably the most stout car on Sunday at Daytona, leading a race-high 86 circuits en route to a fourth-place result — his best career result in the Great American Race.

How will that momentum Busch gained bode for him at California Speedway? One victory, two top fives and five top 10s in seven career starts shows he knows how to get around Fontana, so look out for another strong weekend from ‘Shrub.'

4. Mark Martin — 103.6 driver rating: This may be one of the few instances where I will disagree with the driver rating. Yes, Martin has four top 10 finishes in his last six starts at California, but that has been all in the past.

He has yet to show that he can wheel the new car like he did with the older model, and his 31st place finish at Daytona last weekend does not raise my confidence.

Is a top 10 possible? Yes, but I don't know if this is a driver that you can really count on for victory at the end of the day.

5. Tony Stewart — 101.2 driver rating: For the 10th year, Stewart showed up at Daytona International Speedway with a realistic chance to win the Great American Race, and for the 10th year, he leaves empty handed. Smoke was in command heading into the final lap of this year's Daytona 500, but a miscalculation on his part took him away from the lead and handed the trophy to Ryan Newman.

Although he has never won at California Speedway, Stewart has three top 10 finishes in the last six races, and an average finish of 16.7.

If the driver of the No. 20 Home Depot Toyota uses the disappointment from last week as motivation, a victory isn't out of the question in Toyota's backyard.

6. Carl Edwards — 100.6 driver rating: Looking for a favorite this weekend? Pick Carl Edwards, he is due.

Even if you take into account his 29th place finish in last year's Spring Fontana event (Hey, everybody is allowed to have at least one bad race), and Edwards still has a 7.6 average finish at the 2-miler with five top fives and six top 10s in seven career California Speedway starts.

On top of his past success, Edwards looked pretty good during the first Car of Tomorrow test at California Speedway this past winter, setting one of the fastest times during the two-day test.

7. Kasey Kahne — 96.5 driver rating: After a season of frustration, Kahne should be pleased to get the 2008 season off to a fast start with his seventh-place finish Sunday at Daytona.

But guess what? He finished seventh in the season-opening race last year as well.

Now a strong run at Fontana this weekend may get the driver of the No. 9 Budweiser Dodge feeling a little bit better. Although he is a pretty good driver at California Speedway (average finish of 14.2 in eight starts), Kahne began a streak of 16 races without a top-10 result at this very speedway.

A top-10 finish may be more critical for Kahne than any other driver this weekend.

8. Greg Biffle — 95.4 driver rating: Which Biffle will show up at California Speedway this weekend?

Will it be the former race winner who followed his triumph with a second-place run the next time the series visited Fontana? Or will it be the Biffle that has eight finishes outside the top 10, including three finishes of 30th or worse?

Just like his Roush Fenway Racing teammates Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth, Biffle tested well at California and Vegas in the winter, so maybe the "Good" Biffle will re-appear this weekend.

9. Kurt Busch — 95.1 driver rating: Was there a driver more in the center of attention than Kurt Busch at Daytona? Following his run-in with Tony Stewart in Budweiser Shootout practice, Busch looked to be in a major funk as he failed to qualify based on time and then had to use his first champions provisional after dropping out of the Gatorade Duel qualifying races due to engine issues.

What does he do when everybody expected the worse? He goes out and finishes second in the big race on Sunday.

With momentum on his side, Busch looks to be a contender this weekend at California, where he has a victory and an average finish of 11.3.

10. Jeff Burton — 92.8 driver rating: Burton gambled late in Daytona, and lost, dropping from the lead to 13th place in the final two laps of Sunday's 200-lap event.

He can get back on track this weekend though, as he enters the California weekend with the strength of two consecutive top-five finishes at this very speedway to his record. Although he has zero victories at the 2-mile venue, he does have six top-10s in 15 starts.

Something to look for this weekend, five of Burton's six top 10 results at California Speedway have come after he started 15th or better. Meanwhile, his three results of 30th or worse have come after he started worst than 15th on the grid.

Editor's Note: Jorge A. Mondaca's weekly power rankings are based on NASCAR's Driver Rating system. Why these statistics and not others? The NASCAR Driver Rating system is based on a formula combining several categories which show how a driver is racing, not only how he is finishing by looking at the point-paying races in the past three years at each individual track. As a result, it offers a much clearer explanation as to how they are performing.

The statistics used to determine the final numeric value are: Wins, finishes, Top-15 finishes, average running position while on lead lap, average speed under green, fastest lap, led most laps and lead-lap finishes.

The system has a maximum of 150 points per race. And drivers must have raced in 75 percent of scheduled point-paying races to be included in this rating.

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