Power Rankings: Momentum not just about victories
by JORGE A. MONDACA, FOXSports.com
Each week's Power Rankings are based on how a driver is performing this season, not how they have done in previous years. The driver rating is based on several factors, not just a particular driver's average finish.
Case in point, Mr. Burton.
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Could the argument be made that the driver of the No. 31 AT&T Chevrolet was tops at Bristol? Of course, he took the checkered flag.
But would I be crazy in suggesting that Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer each were superior to Burton? If you look at the big Bristol picture, I wouldn't say I'm too far off base. Not only did each of those three drivers have a better average running position throughout the day, but they also set fastest lap more times and also spent more time overall in the top 15 during race day.
Yes, the only thing that matters in racing is winning the race, but when judging who has the best potential to score positive results in the coming weeks, you have to look at the bigger picture and not just the results.
But guess what? Because Burton was better than a lot of other people overall on Sunday, he did rise a few notches in this week's Power Rankings from his position last week (when he was ranked 10th). So if you are looking for a favorite at Martinsville on March 30, then he is not a bad pick at all — especially when you look at the bigger picture.
Power Rankings after the Sprint Cup race at Bristol Motor Speedway
1. Kyle Busch — 119.6 driver rating: Sound the alarms, Shrub only led seven laps and finished 17th at Bristol.
AHHHHH!!!!
Just kidding. Even though his result at Bristol was his worst of the year, he still remains in a league of his own in Sprint Cup competition as is evident by the fact that even with the less than "Kyle Busch"-like performance Sunday, he still has led more laps than anybody in the series.
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Expect the very same at Martinsville, where he has a 13.2 average finish despite not having visited Victory Lane in six career starts there.
2. Carl Edwards — 107.8 driver rating: Conspiracy theorists can talk all they want about Carl Edwards sputtering ever since his crew got busted for cheating after Las Vegas — I'm not buying it.
Looking for the real reason why Edwards was not in contention at Bristol? Short tracks are not his forte. Yes, he won last fall at the .533-miler, but that had more to do with Roush Fenway Racing's resurgence with the new car than actual skill on smaller venues, which bodes badly for him as the Series heads to Martinsville.
3. Kevin Harvick — 104.4 driver rating: What a few days Happy has experienced. First, Saturday rain showers keep him from challenging for the Nationwide Series victory — despite having one of the best cars on the track shortly before the rains fell. Then on Sunday, he comes close to capitalizing on a gutsy late pit call by his crew chief but falls short when he spins out his good friend Tony Stewart and gets passed by teammate Jeff Burton within a 10-second time span.
At least he got to have a good time Monday night when he got to wax Stewart's back (for charity, of course).
Fun and games aside, Harvick's position in the Power Rankings matches his position in the championship standings, both due to the fact that he has five top-15 results this year, and four consecutive finishes of eighth or better.
But if he wants to hold steady or improve in the standings, he must find a way to figure out Martinsville. In 13 career starts, he has five top-10 finishes and four finishes of 30th or worse, including last year's 41st-place finish in the spring event.
4. Jeff Gordon — 102.9 driver rating: I guess now is as good a time as any to remind you that my e-mail address is above since I am sure I will get many nasty e-mails asking me why Gordon is ranked so high.
Yes, I know he has as many top five finishes as 35th or worse results so far this season (two each) and I know he failed to impress Sunday at Bristol, but let's face it folks, there are about 20 drivers in the Sprint Cup garage right now who would make a deal with the devil (that's not a swipe at Rick Hendrick, by the way) to be in Gordon's shoes right now.
Because of his past successes, we simply expect perfection from the four-time Cup champion.
Even during his "slump," Gordon has run pretty strong on race days, which is why even with two sub-par finishes he still is within striking distance of a top 10 spot in the championship standings.
Guess what, it will likely get better at Martinsville Speedway.
Although he is likely best remembered for his runs at Talladega Superspeedway and Daytona International Speedway, his most prolific venue in Sprint Cup competition is actually the .526-mile short-track in Martinsville, Va. On top of his seven career victories at Martinsville, Gordon also has a very impressive mark of 18 top fives and 24 top-10 finishes in 30 career starts.
"Slumping" or not, smart money says he extends his streak of top-10 finishes at the venue to 11 come race day on March 30.
5. Greg Biffle — 102.1 driver rating: In case you haven't noticed Greg Biffle this season, here's a tip: don't start quite yet.
No offense intended to Biffle, he is having a superb season and he deserves his second place spot in the standings, but three of the next four tracks on the schedule — Martinsville, Texas and Talladega — are among his worst five based on past performances.
I'll say it now — if Biffle can make noise and keep his spot in the standings after Talladega, he will win a championship come year's end.
6. Tony Stewart — 101.3 driver rating: Calling Stewart unlucky at Bristol is the understatement.
In the last three spring races at the short track, Smoke has led a combined 769 of 1510 laps and an average finish of 20.33.
That should change come Martinsville, where he has two victories and an average finish of 12.3 in 18 starts.
With Stewart being more aerodynamic (see Kevin Harvick), watch out for him to come back with a vengeance after the off-week.
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. — 99.9 driver rating: At first, Dale Jr.'s start was impressive. Now he is simply proving that strong runs are no longer the exception, they are the norm.
Martinsville has been good to Earnhardt in the past, as he has seven top-five results in 16 starts and an average finish of 14.8.
8. Jeff Burton — 97.0 driver rating: Is eighth the correct spot in this week's rankings for a race winner? I still argue yes.
One way he can prove me and others wrong is by repeating the feat at Martinsville, a track where he has one victory and 13 top-10 finishes in 27 starts. And although his results have not been overly impressive in his last four starts at the speedway (33rd, 42nd, sixth and 12th respectively), he has been able to go out and dominate in the past — he could be a sleeper on race day.
9. Matt Kenseth — 96.8 driver rating: Solid showings on race days continue to be Kenseth's M.O., and his 10th-place finish at Bristol did not disappoint.
So would it be any surprise to see another top-10 run at Martinsville? Actually, maybe.
In 16 starts at the paper clip, Kenseth and his Killer Bees have a respectable 15.6 average finish, but only five top 10s to their record.
10. Kasey Kahne — 89.9 driver rating: Dale Earnhardt Jr. is deserving of the attention he is getting, but if you want a turnaround driver of the year, people should really pay attention to the guy who is driving the Budweiser car this year — Kasey Kahne.
During a very difficult 2007 season, it took Kahne 26 races to capture his fourth top-10 of the year before going on a mini-tear and scoring doubling his output during the final 10 races of the season.
In 2008, he is already at four top 10s.
While he may not be at race winning form quite yet (he has only led three laps this entire year), the No. 9 Gillett Evernham team are doing exactly what they should be doing to put behind their '07 disappointments: keeping out of trouble, focusing on running strong, and capitalizing on other's mistakes.
Momentum is clearly returning for that crew, perhaps at the perfect time. In eight starts at Martinsville, Kahne only has two top-10s to his record and an average finish of 16.9
Dropped out: Ryan Newman
Editor's Note: Jorge A. Mondaca's weekly power rankings are based on NASCAR's Driver Rating system. Why these statistics and not others? The NASCAR Driver Rating system is based on a formula combining several categories which show how a driver is racing, not only how he is finishing, by looking at the point-paying races this season. As a result, it offers a much clearer explanation as to how they are currently performing.
The statistics used to determine the final numeric value are: Wins, finishes, Top-15 results, average running position while on lead lap, average speed under green, fastest lap, led most laps and lead-lap finishes.
The system has a maximum of 150 points per race. And drivers must have raced in 75 percent of scheduled point-paying races to be included in this rating.
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