Drivers already in danger after five Cup races
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Following the No. 99 Ford failing postrace inspection after Edwards won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and was docked 100 points, his engine expired at Atlanta. So the driver who left Vegas a big winner, and the championship leader, suddenly found himself 17th in the point standings a week later.
While Edwards has 21 races to climb back into contention before the Chase for the Sprint Cup field is decided in September, there's stout competition ahead of him — Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin — that's also on the outside of the top 12 looking in. If Edwards can avoid any further mechanical mishaps, he'll regain the 47 points that separate him from 12th-place Martin Truex Jr.
However, it's not likely that anyone behind Edwards has a shot at a postseason run. These teams simply don't have the chemistry, the equipment or both to make a run at the squads currently among the top 16.
Furthermore, the lower down the pecking order a driver or team may be, the more vulnerable they are to changes — whether that be replacement or expulsion.
On the outside looking in has a whole different meaning for teams not among the top 35 in the owners standings. One bobble in qualifying can be the difference between racing or going home — a slippery slope that teams such as Furniture Row Racing, BAM Racing, the No. 84 Team Red Bull car and the Wood Brothers have found themselves on, as these teams are not in the top 40 in owner points.
The chasm between these organizations and the drivers in the top 30 in owner points widens with each missed race.
One hundred points separate 31st-place J.J. Yeley from Kyle Petty, who is currently 40th in both owner and driver points. Consider this the Sprint Cup danger zone, where any on track incident or parts failure can instantly thrust a team onto the go-or-go-home list.
As performance drops, so does owner and sponsor patience. Last week, Yeley's crew chief Brandon Thomas was an early casualty in the No. 96 team's fight for survival.
When an organization is this close to the bubble, something has to change. With sponsor's marketing budgets centered on the driver, the crew chief is usually the first to go. Nevertheless, don't think for a moment that any of the drivers outside the top 30 aren't under close scrutiny when it comes to job or sponsor security.
Let's take a look at the danger zone, driver by driver:
J.J. Yeley (31st place)
Although this is Yeley's first season with the No. 96 crew, it's not like he hasn't driven the equipment before at Joe Gibbs Racing. Hall of Fame Racing is about as turnkey an operation as one will find in the Sprint Cup Series. Yeley searched for the right chemistry during his stint with JGR but never had an option when it came to switching crew chiefs. That being said, his former chief Steve Addington is progressing swimmingly with Yeley's replacement Kyle Busch. At 31, Yeley has surpassed that young gun phase when NASCAR pundits can use the getting acclimated as an excuse for results.
Jeremy Mayfield (32nd place)
Despite a Hendrick Motorsports technological partnership and the familiarity of crew chief Dave Skog from his time with former employer Ray Evernham, Mayfield is still looking to get his groove back.
Mayfield must yearn for the days when he drove the No. 12 car for Roger Penske. So many races have passed since then that many of the new fans don't remember when Mayfield was competitive. Maybe Youtube.com will have a clip from the Pocono Raceway race where Mayfield "rattled the cage" of the late Dale Earnhardt. Alas, that was nearly eight years ago.
Casey Mears (33rd place)
If Mears could make his own luck, he would have already.
Two finishes of 42nd in the first five races have been point killers for the 30-year-old racer. Mears appeared to be picking up momentum towards the end of last season, but there's been very little to be excited about in 2008. Mears has tremendous resources at his disposal and one of the brightest and talented up-and-coming crew chiefs in Alan Gustafson. Still, the stark reality of the situation is compounded by the early success of his new teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr., who is based in the same garage as Mears and his No. 5 crew.
Dale Jarrett (34th place)
David Reutimann will replace D.J. in the No. 44 starting this week at Martinsville. This should be a godsend for the organization as far as points are concerned as Reuti is hungry and determined to prove himself. After Bristol, Reutimann had as many points as 25th-place Reed Sorenson, but rookie Michael McDowell will inherit his points and position.
Sam Hornish Jr. (35th place)
Short of team owner Roger Penske trading points positions with Ryan Newman (since Hornish already exhausted that opportunity with the No. 2 car) it's push or perish time for the No. 77 crew. Hornish is experiencing growing pains — just like his fellow freshmen Dario Franchitti and Regan Smith. His saving grace? Hornish is Penske's golden boy, so it will be a long time before the impatience meter spikes.
Jamie McMurray (36th place)
Mac has never lived up to Jack Roush's expectations. He was on the hot seat last season but salvaged his ride with a win in the Pepsi 400 at Daytona. McMurray's highlight in the first five races was his 22nd-place finish at Fontana, where he led two laps, but his last two races have ended in 40th or worse. Now McMurray finds himself having to qualify to make the show at Martinsville — a first-time quandary for the No. 26 RFR car. McMurray has a 13.4 qualifying average at on the half-miler and started second and ninth in last year's events.
Dave Blaney (37th place)
Blaney finished 38th at the season-opening Daytona 500 and has not been able to climb out of that rut. With Bill Davis Racing attempting to run two cars off of one budget in the first four races, it's understandable that the No. 22 suffered in the process.
At Bristol, Blaney finished 34th — where he qualified. Currently, this is par for the CAT course.
Dario Franchitti (38th place)
Like Hornish, Franchitti is finding his way but is short on seat time. Unlike Hornish, Franchitti lacks the sponsorship and equipment to get up to speed. Despite his stellar open-wheel resume, his stock car transition has been painful. Martinsville could be an ugly experience for the No. 40 car.
Regan Smith (39th place)
Under the direction of crew chief Doug Richert, some semblance of progress should have been visible by now. However, Smith shares a similar situation as Franchitti where he needs a sponsor to pay for the necessary speed to be competitive.
It's a vicious cycle that only money can stop.
Kyle Petty (40th place)
Job security is a lock when you own the race team. Sponsor security is a whole other issue — especially if Petty starts missing races before he opts out for the TV booth. Petty Enterprises' move to the metro-Charlotte area this season will initially slow its progress because of the toll moving takes on a company. However, it will inevitably offer the organization an opportunity to acquire more competitive employee base.
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