by JEFF OWENS, Special to FOXSports.com

Ordinal out of range

In the past two seasons, the top six after five races have all gone on to make the Chase for the Sprint Cup. With each of them off to solid starts, they're all good bets to be in championship contention after 26 races.

But the real early season surprise lies outside the top 12, where some big-name drivers are already starting to worry about fighting their way back into Chase contention.

After a season in which they dominated the Cup circuit, two-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon are currently on the outside looking in.

Despite their slow starts, it's hard to fathom Gordon and Johnson not making this year's Chase. Johnson is coming off one of the most dominant seasons in recent history, while Gordon, a four-time champion, also had a record-setting season with 30 top-10 finishes.

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Most expected them to take up right where they left off, but it hasn't happened. After five races, Johnson is 13th in points, Gordon 14th.

They're not exactly in dire straights after only five races, but history is starting to work against them.

In four years of Chase history, more than 70 percent of the drivers who are in the top 10 or top 12 after five races go on to make the championship playoff.

Of the 12 drivers who made last year's expanded Chase field, only two were not in the top 12 after five races. Only Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr. rallied to make it. If they can do it, certainly Gordon and Johnson can.

But it's not that simple.

Perhaps more telling is the flip side of the argument. While Busch and Truex rallied to make the Chase, only two in the top 12 after five races fell out, and only one of them can be counted as a driver who legitimately faded. Mark Martin dropped out of the top 12 because he was running only a partial schedule. David Stremme fell out because, well, either he or his team — or both — just wasn't very good, leading to Stremme's release following the season.

For Johnson and Gordon to work their way into the Chase, two drivers have got to fade and fall out. Who's it going to be?

Around the track

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Though there are a few mild surprises, there aren't any drivers in the current top 12 who don't belong there.

Biffle is off to a strong start after missing the Chase last year, but he's a proven contender after finishing second in points in 2006. He should maintain his strong start and could emerge as the man to beat for the championship.

Kyle Busch is leading the standings, but he made the Chase the past two years with Hendrick. And, as crazy as it sounds, he appears to be a even stronger at Joe Gibbs Racing. He, too, will sustain his momentum.

Earnhardt Jr. is back, but that was expected with his move to Hendrick. Kahne and Ryan Newman have both made the Chase before and look poised to bounce back.

So, looking at the current top 12, who's going to drop out in order for Gordon and Johnson to fight there way in?

Johnson and Gordon will need two of them to fade. And even then, their biggest threats may be behind them. Denny Hamlin and Carl Edwards are 15th and 16th in points, and both have run better so far than Gordon and Johnson.

Edwards has two wins already and is only outside the top 12 because of a 100-point penalty for a violation at Las Vegas. He should quickly charge back into the top 12.

Hamlin should have won at Bristol and has made the Chase the past two years. He should continue to be a strong contender.

Is it possible that, one year after one of the most dominant seasons in recent years, Hendrick's dynamic duo could slump so badly that they both miss the Chase?

Is it possible that Earnhardt Jr., their new teammate, makes it and they don't?

In two of the past four seasons, three drivers in the top 10 or 12 after five races have wound up fading and missing the Chase, allowing three drivers to race their way in.

If that trend holds, either Johnson, Gordon, Edwards or Hamlin won't make it. And with the top 16 in points all legitimate contenders, two or three of them might not.

At least two or three big-name drivers have missed the Chase every year: Kevin Harvick and Jeff Burton in 2004; Gordon and Earnhardt Jr. in '05; Stewart, Biffle, Newman and Kurt Busch in '06; Newman, Biffle, Kahne and Earnhardt Jr. last year.

Who will it be this year?

It's hard to fathom that it might be Gordon and Johnson, but stranger things have happened.

After five races, history is not on their side.

Jeff Owens is a writer for NASCAR Scene, which is published weekly, 50 weeks per year. Visit www.scenedaily.com for more information. © 2007 Street & Smith Sports Group