Power Rankings: Rumble in Phoenix
by JORGE A. MONDACA, FOXSports.com
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On paper, PIR may be a 1-mile venue, but it behaves like a hybrid track with features that resemble both small and large tracks.
"The reason it's unique is because it has superspeedway straightaways and short track corners," said NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship leader Jeff Burton. "It's a fun race track to compete on. It has multiple grooves. You don't have to run right on the bottom, you can run on top or in the middle. It's a neat racetrack with short track characteristics and higher speeds."
That said, tempers can flare at this track, and retribution could be delivered for accidents that have taken place this weekend or in week's past, creating quite a bit of buzz for Saturday night's race under the lights.
Who will do best this weekend? Here's a look at the top performers so far this year.
Power Rankings after the Sprint Cup race at Texas Motor Speedway
1. Kyle Busch — 112.0 driver rating (No. 1 last week): Talk about hanging tough. Following two consecutive weeks where Busch scored less than championship caliber results, he bounced back with a very strong third-place showing in Texas. What's more, he also led 50 circuits and was in contention for most of the race Sunday, allowing him to keep his grip on the top spot for at least one more week.
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Although performances not from this season are not included in the actual driver rating, they do allow me to go out on a limb and say that "Shrub" will likely remain at the front of the field after the Phoenix race weekend. Although his average finish at the 1-miler is only 16.3 — tied with Watkins Glen International as his 10th best track on the circuit — he has some pretty stellar showings at PIR, including a victory in 2005 and back-to-back top-10 showings with the Car of Tomorrow last season.
"This has been a pretty good track for us in the past and I feel good about what we're coming here with this weekend," Busch said. "We've got a pole and a win here, which is nice. Testing went well for us too when we were here. So we have those notes to pull from. It should be a good weekend. We have the Snickers car again this weekend. That was such a special win for us in Atlanta with that car so I think the team's pretty excited to be running that again. So all in all, it's a weekend I'm excited about and just ready to get going."
2. Carl Edwards — 111.2 driver rating (No. 2 last week): Last weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, Carl Edwards served notice to one and all: Do not bet against him on intermediate tracks.
Competing in the fourth race of the season on a track measuring between 1.5-2 miles in distance, Edwards was once again the class of the field, leading 123 laps en route for the victory. In that span, he has paced 306 laps and has three wins and a 42nd-place result, which could have been a triumph if not for engine troubles.
With such a high rate of success at the bread-and-butter tracks on the Sprint Cup Series circuit, Edwards and his No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing crew shift their attention to the smaller tracks where so far they haven't been too shabby either. In the two short-track races this year, Edwards has results of 16th (Bristol) and ninth (Martinsville).
Meanwhile, his recent history at Phoenix is mixed. Yes, he has four top-10 showings in seven starts, but the only time he has ever led at the raceway was last year in the fall race, a promising event that was cut short for Edwards due to engine problems after he started from pole position.
"We've had solid finishes at Phoenix in the past, so I know we have the ability to run well there," Edwards said.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. — 104.8 driver rating (No. 4 last week): "Victory Watch" enters race No. 69 this weekend as Dale Earnhardt Jr. put in a solid showing at Texas last weekend, but was unable to keep pace with eventual race winner Carl Edwards and settled for a 12th-place result.
Will Earnhardt snap out of his winless funk at Phoenix? It depends. If he keeps on driving like he has this season on short-tracks then the sky is the limit for Junior, especially since he has visited Victory Lane twice at PIR. However, if he is unable to get his hands around the track, like many times in the past (average finish of 19.0 in 11 starts) — particularly last year's two COT races at the 1-miler (average finish of 31.0) — we might not only have to add another number to his drought, but we might see Junior actually truly struggle for the first time this year.
4. Tony Stewart — 100.6 driver rating (No. 5 last week): For a driver not known for starting fast in a season, Tony Stewart continued quietly stringing together very respectable results last weekend at Texas, finishing seventh and raising his total of top-10 results this season to five in seven starts.
Don't expect much to change this weekend except that he may make a little noise at Phoenix.
Although Smoke is more renowned for his prowess at other tracks, PIR is actually his third best track on the circuit as he has an average finish of 9.4 in 12 starts at the venue, including a victory in his first outing there in 1999. While statistics say he is much better in the fall than in the spring at Phoenix, he enters this weekend with back-to-back runner-up results in 2006-07.
5. Jimmie Johnson — 100.5 driver rating (No. 8 last week): Don't look now, but Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48 bunch are starting to show why they are the two-time defending Sprint Cup champs.
After a less than ideal start to the year, that crew went out and tested extensively in recent weeks in order to figure out the new car once again, a car they totally dominated with last season. Even though they were unable to catch Carl Edwards at Texas — and really, could anybody keep pace with that guy? — Johnson did stay out in front of the pack for 65 laps and finished right behind the race winner for his second consecutive top-five result.
If that wasn't enough to make the competition utter "Ruh roh," maybe they will after this. Much like Tony Stewart, Phoenix is Johnson's third best track on the circuit (average finish of 6.6). Add to that the fact that Johnson enters the weekend with a string of five consecutive top-10 results at PIR, and that his "worst" finish at the 1-miler is 15th, and I sure wouldn't bet against the No. 48 crew.
6. Jeff Burton — 98.7 driver rating (No. 7 last week): I've realized something the last few weeks — Jeff Burton has many fans in NASCAR Nation. Every week after I write Power Rankings, I am sure to get at least a handful of e-mails wondering why he isn't higher on the chart, particularly since he is leading the championship standings.
Well, Texas offers yet another example why.
Yes, Burton finished sixth and actually extended his lead atop the standings by 20 points over the weekend, but he had to rebound from a 35th-place starting spot and had an average running position of 10.637 throughout the event.
Still, don't expect Burton to lose much sleep over the fact that his driver rating is not as good as his position in the championship standings, a position he could very well strengthen on Saturday night. In his 16-year Sprint Cup career, Burton has an average finish of 11.4 at PIR, his second best average finish at all tracks on the schedule (Las Vegas Motor Speedway is his best).
But don't tell that to Burton.
"Although we have a bunch of top 10's, Phoenix-style race tracks have been a weakness in our program," said the Richard Childress Racing driver. "Particularly for the 31 team, we haven't done as well at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond as we needed to. For us, this is an important race. We run a lot at these types of race tracks throughout the season so we need to be better. We've put a lot of effort into this program and we're looking forward to the outcome of our efforts."
7. Kevin Harvick — 96.9 driver rating (No. 6 last week): Life may not be as exciting for Kevin Harvick this year when compared to last year when he won the Daytona 500, but the results are surely better.
Last weekend in Texas, "Happy" recorded his seventh straight top 15 result. Yeah, that's not as sexy as saying "winner," but the Sprint Cup point structure rewards consistency — just ask 2003 champion Matt Kenseth who won just one race that season.
Phoenix is a strong track for Harvick. In 10 career starts at the track, he has amassed a record of two wins, three top fives and five top 10s. Regardless of if he wins or not this Saturday, look for him to at least challenge teammate Jeff Burton for the championship lead with yet another consistent finish.
8. Jeff Gordon — 96.3 driver rating (No. 3 last week): What happened?
That's got to be the most asked question at the No. 24 shop this weekend after Jeff Gordon finished 43rd for only the second time in his illustrious career.
Luckily for that bunch, they can put all that dismay behind them this weekend at Phoenix, Gordon's second best track on the schedule. The defending race winner may only have one visit to Victory Lane at PIR, but he has eight top-five and 15 top-10 finishes in 18 starts.
9. Denny Hamlin — 96.0 driver rating (No. 10 last week): There was definitely no letdown for Hamlin after his Martinsville victory two weeks ago, as he went out and captured a solid fifth-place finish at Texas.
Will that streak continue at Phoenix? With the way he ran at Martinsville, it's certainly not out of the question. PIR is just an average track for Hamlin — despite having a very respectable 13.8 finish, the track is not among his top 10 best.
10. Matt Kenseth — 93.2 driver rating (Outside of top 10 last week): Matt Kenseth reminded folks that he certainly is capable of winning last weekend at Texas, leading 68 laps before dropping back and settling for a ninth-place result due to a gamble late in the event.
"I was pretty disappointed after Texas, but looking back on it, it was a pretty good finish for us," Kenseth said. "We ran really well all day, even though our car didn't handle all that well. We were probably a fifth-place car but didn't get tires at the end and that hurt us a lot on that last restart. It was a 50-50 call and it didn't pay off for us. We didn't get the finish we were hoping for, but we led some laps, got the bonus points and ended up with a top 10, so I'm pleased with our improvements."
Although statistically PIR is Kenseth's sixth-worst track on the calendar, look for another solid result out of him and the No. 17 crew this weekend. Entering Saturday's event, he has back-to-back top five results at PIR as well as back-to-back top fives in the spring PIR race (a 13th-place finish in the Fall 2006 race is his only blemish the last two seasons).
Dropped out: Greg Biffle
To check out where all the Sprint Cup drivers rank, read the complete list here.
2008 Power Rankings: Post Daytona | Post California | Post Las Vegas | Post Atlanta | Post Bristol | Off Week 1 - Owners | Post Martinsville
Editor's Note: Jorge A. Mondaca's weekly power rankings are based on NASCAR's Driver Rating system. Why these statistics and not others? The NASCAR Driver Rating system is based on a formula combining several categories which show how a driver is racing, not only how he is finishing, by looking at the point-paying races this season. As a result, it offers a much clearer explanation as to how they are currently performing.
The statistics used to determine the final numeric value are: Wins, finishes, Top-15 results, average running position while on lead lap, average speed under green, fastest lap, led most laps and lead-lap finishes.
The system has a maximum of 150 points per race. Drivers must have raced in 75 percent of scheduled point-paying races to be included in this rating.
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