Spinning my wheels: Killer Bees on a killer streak
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Can you dig it?
It's only appropriate that the circuit rolls into Indiana this weekend, as hometown heroes Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman are the subjects of speculation regarding the 2009 season.
Their possible partnership for 2009 is certainly something to watch, but how can you not sit and marvel at the first 19 races turned in by Kyle Busch. You either like him or you don't, but there's no denying his ability. The results speak for themselves.
Busch has been so good that I had to create a new term to describe his level of performance. Check it out in this week's Spinning My Wheels .
Track info
Indianapolis Motor Speedway doesn't offer much in the way of surprises. It's a 2.5-mile quad-oval with nine-degree banking. Both the frontstretch and backstretch measure 3,300 feet, allowing drivers to pick up a ton of speed heading into the turns. Naturally, that's where the action is, as cars jockey for position heading into the turns while downshifting. Of course, a quick review of the track histories demonstrates exactly what you'd expect. Running this long at such high speeds will chew up engines and send cars to ruin.
History
There have been 14 events held at The Brickyard, and only seven drivers have captured the checkered flag. Jeff Gordon paces the field with four career wins and 11 top 10s in his 14 starts. Dale Jarrett joins hometown hero Stewart as the only other winner of multiple events. Rounding out the field are Bobby Labonte, Bill Elliott, Kevin Harvick and two-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson.
Interestingly, only 10 drivers have recorded multiple top-five finishes at the track. Five drivers with more than one start own an average finish of 10th place or better. They include the aforementioned Stewart, Harvick and Gordon, as well as Clint Bowyer and the seemingly unstoppable Busch. Can he add a victory at Indianapolis to his impressive résumé?
The contenders
Tony Stewart
"Mama, I'm coming home." Stewart is ready to return to his Indianapolis, where he's been among the most dominant drivers since joining the circuit. Stewart has raced 12th or better in seven of his nine Indianapolis starts and has never finished worse than 17th place. In fact, he owns six top-10s and carries and active streak of four top-10s (two wins) into this weekend's run. Stewart has raced inside the top-15 in 84.6 percent of the laps run in the past three Indianapolis events while averaging a 3.3-position finish. He's qualified 14th or worse in five straight Indianapolis starts, but Stewart chews up the track once the checkered flag is dropped. I'm looking for some home cooking this weekend.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick and his team are running well right now. He's raced to five top-15s in his past six starts and will look to parlay his third-place run in the LifeLock.com 400 at Indianapolis. Harvick has raced inside the top-15 in an astounding 90 percent of the laps run in the past three Indianapolis events, capitalizing on those huge starts to average a 9.7-position finish. He also owns five top-10s in his seven career starts at the track, including a win in 2003 when he raced from the pole.
Jeff Gordon
Gordon has raced outside of the top-15 on five occasions in 2008, yet he still ranks sixth in the point standings. He's ready to rush to the top of the pack this weekend at Indianapolis, where Gordon has raced to 11 top-10s in his 14 career starts, including four victories. He owns six top-10s in his past seven Indianapolis starts, and although he's raced inside the top-15 in only 53.1 percent of the laps run in the past three Indy events, Gordon has averaged a strong ninth-place finish. Lock him in your lineup this weekend.
Matt Kenseth
To say Kenseth is on a roll would be a gross understatement. He's raced to eight top-10 appearances in his past nine starts, including four top-five finishes. The hot streak enjoyed by the No. 17 Roush Fenway Ford figures to continue this weekend at Indianapolis. Following two rough rides to open his career here, Kenseth has raced to five top-10s in his past six starts. He's twice raced to second-place finishes and has averaged a 15-position improvement from his qualifying slot during this stretch.
Mark Martin
Martin has averaged a strong 15th-place finish in his 14 starts this season, producing six top-10 finishes along the way. He's a top option this weekend, having raced inside the top-10 in 87.3 percent of his past three Indianapolis starts. Martin has also earned nine top-10s in his 14 career entries at the track. Four of his appearances inside the top-10 have come in his past five starts, and he routinely pushes toward the top of the pack. He's already predicted that he'll score the first victory of his career at Indy this weekend.
Kyle Busch
What adjectives haven't been used to describe Busch's 2008 season? I think we've exhausted the list, so I offer "traminant" ... a combination of "track" and "dominant." Busch looks to continue his traminance at Indianapolis, where he's had tremendous success in the past. He's raced to top-10 finishes in each of his three Indianapolis starts, averaging a 16.7-position improvement over qualifying in those starts. Busch has also raced inside the top-15 in 70 percent of his laps run on the track. Can he be stopped?
Kurt Busch
Despite his disappointing run to 28th place at Chicagoland Speedway, things are looking up for Busch right now. The former series champion had produced back-to-back top-five finishes ahead of the misstep in Joliet. Busch will look to start another climb at Indianapolis, where he's raced to three top-10s and five top-15s in seven career starts. In his past three Indianapolis starts, Busch has raced inside the top-15 in only 35.2 percent of all laps run, but he's closed things out nicely to the tune of a 13.7-position finish. He's worth a look-see for your fourth roster slot this weekend.
Kasey Kahne
Kahne rebounded nicely from back-to-back runs in the 30s at Sonoma and New Hamphire, racing to seventh place at Daytona and 15th place at Chicagoland Speedway. He represents your ultimately high-risk and high-reward play this weekend at Indianapolis. In four starts, Kahne has produced two top-five finishes and has wrecked in two straight events to run outside of the top-35. He's qualified 12th or better in each of his four Indianapolis entries and has raced inside the top-15 in 68.5 percent of all laps run here. Can Kahne avoid trading paint this weekend?
Jeff Burton
Stop the presses! Burton has raced outside of the top-15 in back-to-back events after starting the season with 17 straight top-15 appearances. It could reach streak status this weekend at Indianapolis, where Burton has averaged an 18.3-position finish in 14 career starts. Burton has produced only three top-10s here in his career (one top five in 1999). Although he's raced to three top-15s in his past four Indianapolis starts, I'm reserving him for a later race.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin finds himself in a bit of a slump right now, having raced outside of the top 25 in three of his past four starts. He's hopeful that a week off following the Chicagoland Speedway race can help him rediscover his groove. Hamlin has raced to a 16th-place average finish in two starts at Indianapolis, including a solid 10th-place effort in 2006. He raced inside the top-15 in 77 percent of the laps run in his two Indianapolis appearances, so Hamlin will push for a top-tier ride. I'd just like to see him run more consistently before getting back onboard the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Toyota.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
The first season with Hendrick Motorsports has been a memorable one for Junior and his team. He's raced to 12 top-10s and 16 top-15s in his first 19 starts with the No. 88 car. Despite the brilliance of his ride in 2008, I'm sitting him down this weekend. Junior has produced two top-10s (three top-15s) in eight career starts here. In his past three Indianapolis starts, he's averaged a 27.7-position finish and has raced inside the top-15 in only 31.5 percent of the laps run. Save him for another run.
Ryan Newman
Newman is in the news as he contemplates his next move. The Daytona 500 winner has produced some top-notch runs this season and currently resides in the 16th position in the point standings. Newman is an intriguing option this weekend, having produced a remarkable 5.1-position qualifying average during his career. Unfortunately, he's only parlayed those tremendous starts into one top-10 in seven career starts.
Quick hits
Clint Bowyer
Bowyer has been mired in a two-month haze, but he's started to turn thing around with two top-10s in his past four starts (one top five). Bowyer raced to an impressive fourth-place run in his 2006 rookie campaign, and then battled to a strong 13th-place finish last year, improving 13 positions over qualifying. He's raced inside the top-15 in 75 percent of his laps run during two trips to Indianapolis. That's enough for a starting nod.
Greg Biffle
Biffle ended a five-race funk (meaning zero top-10s) with a resounding charge to fourth place in Joliet. He's a risky selection for fantasy participants this weekend with just two top-15s in his five starts (one top-10). Biffle has raced outside of the top-20 in his other three Indianapolis starts. The No. 16 Roush Fenway Ford is somewhat intriguing this weekend, as Biffle has raced inside the top-15 in two-third of the laps run here during the past three years. However, he's averaged a disappointing 23rd-place finish in those starts. I'll reserve him for another week.
Carl Edwards
Edwards' 32nd-place finish in the LifeLock.com 400 ended a phenomenal run during which he'd claimed eight top-10s in nine starts. He led 15 laps in that race, so don't discount the start altogether. Edwards seeks to begin a new streak at Indianapolis, where he's raced to three top-20s in three starts, including one top-10 finish and two top-15s. He's averaged an 18.7-position improvement over his qualifying efforts in those events, so Edwards does offer some bonus point potential. Given his recent efforts in the No. 99 Roush Fenway Ford, it's impossible to ignore this back-flipping star at Indianapolis.
Brian Vickers
Lost in the excitement over Kyle Busch's ridiculous winning ways this season is the fact that Vickers has become a weekly contender in the No. 83 Red Bull Racing Toyota. This dramatic improvement comes just one year after Vickers struggled to qualify on a weekly basis. Vickers has raced to seven consecutive top-16 finishes, including three top-10s. I'm optimistic that this streak continues at Indianapolis, although he hasn't been a powerhouse here historically. Vickers has one top-15 finish (third in 2005) in four career Indianapolis starts.
Jimmie Johnson
The two-time defending series champion had some bumps along the way earlier this season, but the No. 48 team has pulled together, and Johnson is once again ranked inside the top-five. Johnson has raced to five top-10s in his past seven events (six top-15s), including a second-place finish at the LifeLock.com 400 ahead of last week's off week.
He's a difficult proposition this weekend at Indianapolis. Johnson has raced to two top-10s in his six career starts, but has also faced three early exits (two accidents and an engine issue). To further complicate your decision-making, Johnson won the 2006 event. I'm sitting him down, but my intuition tells me that I'm going to regret it.
Longshots
Reed Sorenson
Sorenson snapped a long drought without an upper-tier run with a sixth-place finish at New Hampshire, but he quickly dipped back outside of the top-20 in back-to-back events. With just two top-10s this season and a 27th-position average finish, Sorenson is certainly no lock for a big ride this weekend. However, he did capture the pole last season and led 16 laps before finishing in fifth place. Fantasy participants looking to roll the proverbial dice this weekend could do worse.
Juan Pablo Montoya
Montoya continues to seek that breakthrough moment on the Sprint Cup circuit where the top-10s start to pile up. Alas, he's yet to find the magic and start a charge to the top of the rankings. Indianapolis represents a decent launching spot for the second half. Montoya qualified second here last season and stayed inside the top-15 for the entire race, ultimately finishing in second place. His other start at the track produced an Indianapolis 500 victory in 2000. Can lightning strike for a third time? He's a high-risk, high-reward option for fantasy participants this weekend. I'll gamble with him.
David Ragan
Ragan has produced three top-10s in his past five starts, reinforcing the fact that his early-season successes were no fluke. He's currently sitting in the 15th position in the point standings and hopes to inch closer to the 12th slot with a big run this weekend at Indianapolis. Ragan qualified 30th here last season, but turned in a measured, consistent ride to race through the pack and finish in 16th place. I believe he's worthy of consideration for your fourth roster slot this weekend.
My team for this week includes Gordon, Stewart, Kenseth and Montoya.
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