by Larry McReynolds

Around the track

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It is kind of ironic how the top 12 sit right now. It's only four organizations. You have three teams each from Richard Childress Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, Roush Fenway and Joe Gibbs Racing.

Keys to victory

The forecast for this weekend in Fontana is hot. It is going to be in the low- to mid-90s. Whenever we talk about heat, everyone always thinks about the driver. But take it from one who has been there, it is very hard on crews too. You have a long 500-mile race. Even though the race is at night, the heat and humidity does not dissipate. That pit crew is going to be going over that wall a few more times than they did at Bristol and even more than they did at Michigan.

I think it will be a positive that they are moving this race ahead about a month and a half next year. The heat then should be lot less of a factor. That heat this weekend will definitely make the track slick. Remember that a slick race track means these cars will have a lot less grip.

During practice Friday and Saturday, the teams will be working with the shock package to try and keep the car down on the ground. They also will be working with springs, sway bars, track bar, just about everything on that car to try and hunt for more grip.

Because of when the race starts and when it ends, the track will actually gain some grip throughout the event. Don't get me wrong, it won't be a tremendous amount but it will gain some. But all teams know they will have to be prepared to make adjustments throughout the race. They will be playing with air pressure and wedge a lot as the night unfolds. Even the good handling cars will be making changes throughout the night during pit stops as they try and keep up with the cooling track conditions.

Race favorites

Jack Roush and his teams have had a lot of success at Fontana. They don't dominate it as much as they do in Michigan, but if you look at the results over the years at Auto Club Speedway, the Roush cars always seem to be the ones to beat.

I think it will be some of the same players that we had at Michigan. There is no question that Carl Edwards is going to be tough there. He won the race in fairly dominating fashion in the spring. He ran well at Michigan. Everyone will be watching the No. 99.

The No. 18 and the No. 48 will be players at Fontana. I am curious to see how the No. 24 will perform. He did have a good finish in the spring but he really didn't have that good of a run.

A cat everyone better keep their eye on this weekend is Brian Vickers. I think he will be a pretty major player. In addition to Carl, I think all his Roush Fenway teammates will be tough.

I think positive momentum is important for anybody right now. You want to finish off these next two races and head into the Chase with momentum on your side. I am sure the No. 88 car is searching high and low to try and get their act back together. They need to get ahold of something positive. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has not had a top five finish since he won Michigan in June. So there is a lot of work to do there to get that team pointed in the right direction.

Jeff Burton in that No. 31 is another top five team that, like Earnhardt, isn't running well. They finish races, but they just aren't running well. There are some cars really coming on strong. That No. 29 car has had four top 10 finishes in the last five races. He has gone from outside the Chase to now being in the eighth position in a short period of time.

But again, it doesn't matter where you are in the Chase points right now. You want to end these last two races before the Chase and enter the Chase with momentum on your side. These next two races are going to be critical for setting the Chase field. Fontana is hard on engines. Its 500 miles at that sustained RPM that never goes away. Richmond is a short track and it's very easy to get caught up in someone else's problems. So it might not be who runs the best these next two races, but it might be who has issues these next two races.

Oh, what a weekend

We know with the Fontana track being in Toyota's backyard, there will be a lot of Toyota employees there. So you have to believe it would be a big deal for them to win at Fontana this weekend. I think they got a lot of bullets in their gun that can do it, in particular those three Gibbs cars and as I mentioned, keep your eye on Brian Vickers.

Final Bristol thoughts

Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch have to put what happened at Bristol behind them. They cannot carry that rivalry into Fontana or Richmond. When you prepare for the Chase, you cannot have any distractions. I don't think those two will because they are both professional race car drivers and they know what is at stake. They, like the others, have to keep that momentum going. There are 20 bonus points left on the table going into the Chase with 10 at Fontana and 10 at Richmond, and both those guys would like to get them all.

End of silly season?

Reed Sorenson will be leaving Chip Ganassi at the end of the season and joining Gillett Evernham next year. The number and sponsor hasn't been announced yet. I think in a perfect world, Gillett Evernham would love to go to four teams but obviously that will be sponsorship-driven. I am happy for Reed. I think that will be a good move for him. I just hope it doesn't put Patrick Carpentier out on the street.

I just feel like if Patrick can get this first year under his belt and come back next year he will be a lot more competitive. The downside is if they can't do more than three sponsors then you can understand them putting someone in the car with more experience next year. From Reed's side, for whatever reason, the combination of he and the Ganassi organization just hasn't worked. So it probably is a positive for both sides that a change is being made.

So who is going in the Ganassi car to replace Reed? That's a very good question. Will Chip put Dario Franchitti back in a full Cup ride? I don't know. The list of available drivers has dwindled. We have answered a lot of questions over the last couple months, but trust me, there are still more to be answered.

FOX race analyst Larry McReynolds has more than 25 years of NASCAR experience as a mechanic, crew chief and broadcaster. He and his fellow Crew Chief Club members take you behind the wall at www.crewchiefclub.com.

"How to Become a Winning Crew Chief" is on bookstore shelves, or you may order your own autographed copy from www.DWStore.com.