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Race preview: Going flat out in Phoenix
by Mark Taylor, RotoWire
For the first time since April, we're racing at PIR. It was almost seven months ago the Sprint Cup Series ran at night in the Arizona desert. Even though it's been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Subway Fresh Fit 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last four total races at PIR for some ideas of who'll run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the driver stats for the last four races at Phoenix International Raceway.
| DRIVER | WINS | TOP 5 | TOP 10 | AVG FINISH |
| Jimmie Johnson | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2.0 |
| Denny Hamlin | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6.2 |
| Jeff Gordon | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7.0 |
| Mark Martin | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7.7 |
| Tony Stewart | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8.5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9.0 |
| Jeff Burton | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9.5 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11.8 |
| Matt Kenseth | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14.8 |
| Kurt Busch | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15.2 |
| Greg Biffle | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15.5 |
| Carl Edwards | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15.5 |
| Kyle Busch | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15.8 |
| Bobby Labonte | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16.2 |
| Clint Bowyer | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17.0 |
If Jimmie Johnson hopes to defeat Carl Edwards in the quest for the championship, Phoenix will play a big part. Chevrolet drivers have won eight of the last nine races at Phoenix, including this season's Subway Fresh Fit 500, which was won by Johnson. So, you could say this weekend sets up pretty well for Johnson in his quest to become a three-time champion. Before we hand the cup to him, let's not rule out Edwards just yet, though. He won the pole in this event one year ago and led 87 laps before an engine failure ruined his evening. Edwards returned to PIR this spring and finished fourth in one of his best efforts at Phoenix to date. If he hopes to cut into Johnson's point lead, he'll have to visit victory lane for the first time at PIR this weekend. We'll examine those championship contending teams who have a lot to race for this weekend at Phoenix International Raceway and those who could sneak up and surprise the big teams.
The Contenders
Jimmie Johnson - Johnson heads to Phoenix this weekend with a precious 106-point lead in the championship chase over Carl Edwards. He'll need to defend his turf on Sunday or face the possibility of seeing his third straight championship slip away at Miami. The No. 48 team has been the most dominant force in Sprint Cup racing at PIR in recent seasons, so odds are good of a Johnson victory.
Denny Hamlin - Put plain and simply, Hamlin's had race cars capable of winning when the series has visited Phoenix International Raceway in the recent past. He has one pole and three top-five finishes in his six career starts at PIR. He's led close to 100 laps in those starts and knows how to run up front at this track. The No. 11 team's quite capable of pulling the upset win in the Checker Auto Parts 500.
Matt Kenseth - The No. 17 team always runs well in this part of the schedule, and Kenseth is showing it right now with three straight top 10s to his credit. He'll ride that momentum to Phoenix this weekend and put up a good challenge for his first win of the season. He posted a pair of top fives at PIR last season.
Carl Edwards - In most cases we wouldn't consider Edwards and the No. 99 team a contender for the win at PIR. He's never won in eight starts at the desert speedway, but he does have one pole a handful of top-five finishes in those starts. We believe the x-factor is the championship this weekend. He'll break his neck to get into victory lane on Sunday. He did lead 87 laps in this event one year ago before an engine failure prematurely ended his evening.
Solid Plays
Jeff Gordon - Gordon took a long time to score his first win at Phoenix in 2007, but in all those starts he did compile some impressive numbers. In just his last seven starts at PIR alone, he has one victory, three poles and five top-10 finishes. Gordon's riding a four-race top 10 streak entering this weekend, so he makes a great fantasy racing play.
Kevin Harvick - Harvick's been coming on in the last few weeks. He has a pair of top-10 finishes in his last three races, and this weekend the No. 29 team visits one of his favorite tracks. He swept both PIR races in 2006 and has a pair of top 10s in the last three races at Phoenix International Raceway. He could be a dark horse contender for the win on Sunday night.
Kyle Busch - Busch's resume at PIR is a mixed bag. He's had one pole, one win and five top 10s in seven races. However, he does have two finishes of 36th or worse during this span. His last three starts at Phoenix International Raceway have resulted in top-10 finishes and with the way the No. 18 team's running right now, we expect him to extend this streak.
Jeff Burton - The history of Burton at Phoenix is long and storied. He owns two victories and 10 top 10s in 18 career starts at the Arizona flat track. This is one of the facilities he truly loves to visit. He has four top 10s in his last five PIR races and should be spot-on yet again on Sunday night.
Sleepers
Clint Bowyer - Bowyer loves the short and flat tracks, and Phoenix qualifies as both. Although his career numbers at PIR are a bit mediocre, he really has come to run much better at the Diamond in the Desert in recent outings. He finished 11th in this event one year ago, then returned in the spring of this year to post a great second-place finish in the Subway Fresh Fit 500.
Martin Truex Jr. - The No. 1 team is what we like to call a "safe play" for this weekend's race at Phoenix. Truex has posted solid and dependable results in all of his starts at PIR. He's been running well of late and should carry some momentum to this weekend's race. He has a pair of top-10 finishes in his last two races at the facility and led 72 laps in this event one year ago.
Jamie McMurray - The No. 26 team's really come to life in the last few weeks. McMurray's getting great race cars and finishing well with them. He's never finished in the top 10 at Phoenix International Raceway, but he has his best chance ever to snap that drought Sunday night. He did start eighth and finish 17th here in the spring of this year.
Casey Mears - Another streaking driver right now is Mears. He's leaving Rick Hendrick Motorsports at the end of the season, but he's leaving quite an impression on the way out the door. He's finished in the top 15 in six of his last seven races and he has a pair of top 15s in his last two starts at PIR.
David Reutimann - The No. 44 team of Michael Waltrip Racing has made great strides this season. Reutimann's currently 23rd in the series standings and is fresh off his fourth top 10 of the season at Texas. He's always run well at the series' short tracks and he showed it here in April of this year with a top-20 finish. We expect similar results this weekend.
Johnny Sauter - The deepest sleeper of the field this weekend is Sauter. He steps back into the No. 70 Chevrolet of Haas CNC Racing. He has a pair of top 10s and three top 15s in six career starts at Phoenix International Raceway. He makes a good start in deep leagues and weekly lineup leagues this weekend.
Flops
David Ragan - We don't put Ragan in the flops list often, so listen up. The talented Roush Fenway driver normally makes a good fantasy racing play, but he's been unable to solve Phoenix International Raceway in his brief career. In three career starts he has no finish better than 27th at PIR. He's just too risky to start on Sunday.
Dave Blaney - Blaney gets a turn on the flops list yet again this weekend. He's failed to crack the top 20 in his last six races and failed to crack the top 30 in his last three trips to the desert. We can't scream "stay away" enough.
Elliott Sadler - The up-and-down roller coaster ride for Sadler will continue this weekend at PIR. He and the No. 19 team have been more off than on of late, and Phoenix isn't one of his best tracks. He qualified second at PIR in the spring, but succumbed to an engine failure and finished 41st. That's his type of Phoenix luck.
Kasey Kahne - The R&D and experimenting in the No. 9 camp continues this weekend at Phoenix. Kahne hasn't visited the top 10 in the last three races, and it's clear the team is now doing their homework for next season. PIR hasn't been kind to the team of late, and Kahne hasn't cracked the top 30 there in his last three trips.
FOX Sports Fantasy Auto Racing - Top Four
Kevin Harvick - While not a major threat to win this weekend, Harvick almost always makes a steady start at Phoenix. His current hot streak, combined with his good history at PIR makes for a top-10 run most likely.
Matt Kenseth - Outside of Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards, Kenseth is the real threat to steal the win on Sunday night. He's been coming on of late and this is a good part of his schedule historically. We'll roll the dice that the No. 17 team can get to victory lane for the first time on Sunday night.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin's another good dark horse contender for the win this weekend. He has a true knack for this race track, and he's flirted with victory lane here on more than one occasion.
Martin Truex, Jr. - This is the perfect combination of hot team and good race track historically. Truex loves the flat tracks, and he's running very well right now. We're willing to bet this is a pretty safe top 10 play this weekend.
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