by Reid Spencer, The Sporting News , Charleston Daily Mail

On the surface, fourth-place Kurt Busch seems safe enough, but at 305 points behind Stewart and 313 ahead of 13th place, a couple of unmitigated disasters could derail his efforts. With the way Busch has run this year, however, that seems highly unlikely.

If there's real danger, though, it threatens positions seven through 12; and if there's real opportunity, it's available to positions 13 through 16 in the standings, to the four drivers currently on the outside looking in - but not outside by much.

Here's how we rate the chances of the "bubble" drivers:

-Matt Kenseth (currently 10th, 100 points ahead of 13th). Odds to make the Chase: 10-9. Kenseth is anything but spectacular since winning the first two races of the season, but he nevertheless is consistent enough to make the Chase for the sixth straight year. Kenseth and Johnson are the only drivers who have never missed.

-Ryan Newman (seventh, plus-134 points). Odds: 6-5. Newman is the polar opposite of Kenseth, having overcome a succession of mishaps to start the season. Six drivers would have to pass Rocket Man to knock him out of the Chase, and odds against that are long.

-Greg Biffle (ninth, plus-114 points). Odds: 7-5. Biffle's cars are fast enough. His crew is one of the best in the garage. All Biffle has to do is keep the car on the track. The negative is that he has more DNFs (two) than any other driver in the top 12.

-Kyle Busch (eighth, plus-133 points). Odds: 7-5. With three wins, Busch should be a lock by now, but his win-at-all-costs mentality produces boom-or-bust results. With excellent equipment and his own top-notch talent, however, Busch should make the postseason. A small measure of big-picture thinking might help him solidify his position.

-Mark Martin (13th, 65 points behind 12th). Odds: 8-5. Like Kyle Busch, Martin has three victories, but he also has three DNFs, most of any driver in the top 16. A rare mistake at Daytona, where his car pushed up the track into Kenseth's, cost him dearly, but Martin isn't likely to squander the 30 bonus points he earned with his three wins.

-Juan Pablo Montoya (11th, plus-86 points). Odds: 16-11. With the Chase as his prize, Montoya admits he's points racing, and he's doing it well, having found a way to finish in the top 10 in five of his past seven races. With a respectable finish at Chicagoland, where he has run 15th and 18th in his only two starts, Montoya could make headway at Indianapolis, Pocono, Watkins Glen and Michigan.

-Kasey Kahne (12th, plus-65 points). Odds: 9-5. The win at Sonoma was a surprise and helped Kahne immeasurably - but aside from that, his best finish in the past five races is a 10th at New Hampshire. He's in the top 12 right now but will need better results in the next eight races to stay there.

-Jeff Burton (15th, minus-105 points). Odds: 2-1. Burton's team has been making gains, even if it hasn't shown in the race results. It's tough to write off Burton's chances to make his fourth straight Chase, but he'll have to do better than the six top 10s he posted in the first 18 races-and he'll have to pass at least three other drivers to get there.

-David Reutimann (14th, minus-74 points). Odds: 3-1. Reutimann has been flirting with the top 12 all season, sometimes in, sometimes out. In order to boost his chances, he'll have to find a way to post a respectable finish at Watkins Glen (Aug. 9), where he finished 33rd last year in his only start at the road course. Reutimann's hopes took a major blow in the same July 4 Daytona wreck that sidelined Dale Earnhardt Jr.

-Clint Bowyer (16th, minus-135 points). Odds: 4-1. Bowyer's story is one of a season in decline. He claimed three top fives in the first six races, none since. In a six-race stretch that started at Texas and ended at Lowe's (race No. 12), Bowyer dropped precipitously from second to 17th in points. Without a 180 degree turnaround at a Richard Childress Racing organization gutted by cutbacks in manufacturer support, Bowyer won't make it.

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