Will shift to spoiler favor Jimmie Johnson?

NASCAR has all sorts of logical reasons for scrapping the wing on its Sprint Cup car this week and replacing it with a spoiler.

The fans don’t like the wing because it doesn’t look like something you should see on the back of a stock car. It looks more like one of those contraptions on the back of a souped-up four-cylinder.

Drivers don’t like it because …, well, because they don’t like the car, period, and the wing is the easiest culprit. Take it off and it gives them less to complain about.

But the biggest reason no one likes the wing – and the car it is bolted to – is that the racing has been less than some fans find desirable the past few years.

Oh, it hasn’t been terrible. But it hasn’t been consistently great, either. It’s gotten better, but not good enough.

Not good enough to curb general fan complaints. Not good enough to re-energize fans and spark new fan interest, the way the new car was supposed to.

But NASCAR officials likely have yet another reason for making such a dramatic change five races into the season. A much more devious, much more sinister reason, one sure to spark some fresh conspiracy theories (and isn’t NASCAR just one, big conspiracy theory after another?).

The real reason NASCAR, its teams and fans can’t wait to scrap that wing and strap on that spoiler: They all hope it just might slow down Jimmie Johnson.

The four-time champ has made a mockery of the sport the past three seasons, winning nearly twice as many races (24) as the second-best driver (Kyle Busch with 13).

Johnson has won 22 of the 93 races with the new car since 2007 while Busch has won 13 and Carl Edwards 12.

His run of four straight championships is one of the most remarkable stretches in NASCAR history. It is a stretch of dominance worth relishing, but to most fans, it is downright sickening.

The biggest hope among competitors and fans is that the new spoiler will somehow slow down Johnson and his No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports team, allowing other teams to close the gap and have a chance.

NASCAR officials have always preached parity and a “level playing field,” so that has to be their hope as well.

But NASCAR might be on the verge of stepping into a big pile of dung.

Why?

Because their devious plan just might backfire.

What if the new spoiler just makes Johnson even more dominant, playing right into his hands, increasing his advantage and widening the gap?

It’s entirely possible.

In fact, it’s probably more likely than it closing the gap and being some sort of miracle cure for teams chasing Johnson.

Crew chief Chad Knaus was almost giddy over the pending change after Johnson’s victory at Bristol Sunday.

“I’m really, really looking forward to it,” Knaus said. “I think when there are situations like this, when there is a significant change, I think with the strength we have got at Hendrick Motorsports, we tend to click and adapt quicker than most people.”

There is historical precedent for Knaus’ assertion.

When Hendrick’s Jeff Gordon, Johnson’ mentor, began to dominate in the mid- to late-90s, NASCAR made a dramatic change to try to shake things up.

After Gordon won 27 races and two championships from 1995-97, NASCAR introduced the 5-and-5 rule.

By cutting the rear spoiler down to five inches in height and raising the front valence of the cars five inches, it was supposed to make the cars looser and more difficult to drive.

The move immediately became known as the “Earnhardt rule.”

Dale Earnhardt, the seven-time champion, was suddenly getting his butt kicked by the kid he dubbed “Wonder Boy,” and his legion of fans were irate.

Earnhardt challenged Gordon for the championship in ’95, but won just two races in ’96 and went winless for the first time in 16 years in 1997.

Gordon was being booed unmercifully while Earnhardt fans were in a tizzy, watching “The Kid” take over the sport “The Intimidator” once owned.

The 5-and-5 rule was supposed to favor Earnhardt and all the veteran drivers, making the car harder to drive and representing a throwback to the old days (where have we heard that before?).

Instead, it backfired, having the opposite affect.

Gordon and his Ray Evernham-led crew adapted quicker than most and Gordon became even more dominant, winning his third championship and 13 races, matching Richard Petty for the greatest season in the modern era.

NASCAR and its teams must fear Johnson and Knaus doing the same thing.

If Johnson and his team are already light years ahead of the competition, how much bigger will their advantage be under the new rules?

Johnson has already won three of the first five races this season and is off to the best start of his career. If he was the overwhelming favorite to win a fifth championship prior to the season, those odds just keeping going up.

If Johnson and Knaus do indeed adapt quicker than other teams, where will it end?

Will they win 13 races, like Gordon did in ’98?

Will they shatter Gordon’s mark, like they have every other record in recent years? Will they win 15 races?

How about 20?

Will NASCAR officials be scratching their heads a year from now, wondering if they made a mistake?

Will they ponder pulling the old wing out of the closet and dusting it off as they long for the good old days, when Johnson was winning a mere seven races a season?

Switching to the spoiler makes sense on many levels, but it’s also a huge risk.