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No way to predict Chase favorite just yet

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Jeff Hammond

FOX race analyst Jeff Hammond is a former NASCAR crew chief who led Darrell Waltrip to two of his three Cup championships. The duo also teamed up to win the 1989 Daytona 500. Prior to that, Hammond was the jackman for Cale Yarborough for all three of his Cup championships. He has 43 Cup wins as a crew chief.

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Updated Jul 9, 2009 5:10 PM ET
     
 
After what I witnessed last year, there is no way I could pick a winner for the 2009 Chase at this time. With the competition as strong as it's been so far this year, it would simply be foolish in my opinion to try and pick a winner. If you remember, as we headed into the 2008 Chase, we clearly saw Kyle Busch as the class of the field. But once Kyle and the No. 18 team got into the Chase, it seemed like the wheels fell off and they could never recover. Right now, Tony Stewart has shown he is the most consistent guy in the field. However, once we get into this year's Chase, I just think people will race differently than they are now. As I mentioned earlier this week, I see Juan Pablo Montoya following their strategy to get into the Chase. Then I really see them cutting loose and really going for it. But until we really get closer and get all the right players in place, it's still a big unknown. I just don't think someone is going to be so far out ahead of anyone like it was last year. I really think we have to see all the players and additionally, we have to get through those first two Chase races before we can get a feel of how it's all going to play out. The easiest answer is to simply sit back and say you have to beat Jimmie Johnson in the final ten. Jimmie and his crew chief Chad Knaus have found a way the last three years to take their game to another level when the Chase starts. What makes this year interesting is that with Tony's bunch, you are pretty much looking at a clone of Jimmie's organization. Tony is just as talented and experienced. Tony has won two championships while Jimmie has won three. Oh by the way, there's another guy at Hendrick named Jeff Gordon and he has won four championships. I just think we are going to see multiple possibilities of teams that have ties to Hendrick Motorsports. Those three I just mentioned alone create enough of a "what if" for me to watch. Until we get to Richmond in September, we don't know if Kyle Busch, even with his current three wins, will end up self-destructing and miss the Chase this year. Realize that it's not a given that either he or Mark Martin will make the Chase right now. They both have three wins but I am telling you it's very possible that one or both could miss the Chase. It's just because of the competition out there right now. When you see drivers like Marcos Ambrose and Juan Pablo Montoya taking a big chunk of points off the board every week, it makes it much tougher on others who are trying to claw their way into the top 12. A lot of the guys outside the top 12 aren't backing down. They are putting the pressure on folks, but they aren't backing off.
At one time it used to be if you could get past Daytona and were in the top 12, you were pretty much guaranteed a spot in the Chase. No more. This year more than ever, I think we are going to see some more shakeups. When you have some guys that are big-picture racing while at the same time, you have guys who are willing to gamble, like Dale Earnhardt Jr., it makes things exciting. Trust me, there is going to be a lot going on in these final eight races before the field for the Chase is set. Additionally you have a couple tracks coming up that can shake things up. No one has this figured out yet, especially this year. There are a handful of drivers, I think a good number to say is six, who don't know for sure what they are doing next year. Then there are some others that if they don't start performing, there won't be a sponsor there for them to perform. If the money's not there from the sponsor, then there's no money to run the team and that driver contract is worthless. I just know there are some very nervous owners and drivers out there worried about what this economy means to their future. The good news is I don't see anyone in the top 35 backing off. They are all staying after it and will be racing hard. I believe there will be fewer sponsors and even less money available next year than there is this year, so if they want any of it, they are going to have to step up and perform. FOX race analyst Jeff Hammond led Darrell Waltrip to two of DW's three Winston Cup championships as his crew chief. They also teamed to win the 1989 Daytona 500. For autographed copies of Jeff Hammond's book "Real Men Work in the Pits" plus magnets, hats and more, check out www.dwstore.com. For photos and appearances, visit Jeff's web site www.jeffhammond.com.
Tagged: Juan Pablo Montoya, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Marcos Ambrose, Tony Stewart, Mark Martin

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