What to watch for going into Phoenix

The stage is set in the Arizona desert. It’s time to buckle up for the second race of the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season (Coverage begins on FOX at 2:30 p.m. ET).

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What can you expect to see at Phoenix International Raceway when the green flag drops at about 3:15 p.m. ET? Here’s your cheat sheet for what to watch on FOX this afternoon.

1. Kyle Busch's search for perfection

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that KyBu is a one-man show this weekend — strolling off with a Truck Series victory Friday night then outclassing the field en route to a wire-to-wire victory in Saturday’s Nationwide Series romp. Can he complete the rare weekend sweep? He’s already done it once in his career (Bristol, August 2010), he’s been a triple threat a few more times in his young career, and, oh yeah, he has one win and seven top-10 finishes in 12 Phoenix starts — so don’t bet against him on race day.

2. Can the Fords stay up front?

One of Busch’s biggest obstacles to the trifecta is the Ford camp. After sweeping the top three positions at Daytona, the Blue Oval camp is riding high. Its best hope to continue that trend is likely Carl Edwards — who crushed the track record in qualifying Saturday morning and was the only driver able to keep up with Busch in Saturday’s Nationwide race. But he’s not alone. Greg Biffle is pretty stout at Phoenix (four top-fives in 14 starts) and Matt Kenseth is no slouch, either (one win, eight top-10s in 17 races).

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3. The long and short of it

Length matters. Not only did the date of the spring Phoenix race change, but the distance also decreased from 600 to 500 kilometers, and the start time moved from early Saturday afternoon to midday Sunday. That all may sound trivial, but to race teams it makes a big impact.

“The 500 kilometer distance means one less fuel stop than last year, but it’s not one full segment shorter than a 600 kilometer race,” explained Dodge Motorsports engineer Howard Comstock. “A shorter race changes the window of opportunity, and at a race where track position is critical like Phoenix, fueling strategy will be a key.

“You have a circular strategy going on this weekend. Tires are more important because it’s a day race; two tires versus four tires is a strategy that works here. The fueling is slower and the race is shorter. That’s a lot of things going on in one race.”

Considering the changes on pit road this season (including one less man over the wall on pit stops), this race could easily be won and lost on pit road — by strategy or mistakes by team members.

4. Starting position matters

A majority of the field won’t like to hear this, but you can all but eliminate anybody starting worse than 15th on Sunday. You have to go back to 2002 — a 14 race span — to find somebody who started this race outside the top 15 and won. That serves as a boost for the aforementioned Edwards (pole) and Busch (fourth) among others, but won’t sit well with superstars such as Kevin Harvick (17th), Jeff Gordon (20th) and Jimmie Johnson (28th). Since this is such a short race, drivers outside the top 15 will have to make their moves in a hurry or risk the streak extending at least one more race.

5. No more excuses — real racing is here

By now, you’ve heard many drivers say, “The real season begins this weekend” (particularly those who had a bad day at the Daytona 500 last Sunday). Yes, they're wrong, but bear with them — there are many drivers who simply cannot unlock the complex riddle that is restrictor-plate racing.

But that’s it. No more excuses.

Drivers won’t have to rely on tandem drafting this weekend. Restrictor plates won’t help create multicar crashes that wipe out half the field. Simply put: You can blame no one but yourself starting this weekend.

There are many big names already down in the standing because of unpredictable Daytona. They can’t afford a second consecutive poor result this weekend.