Home is where the wins are in NBA playoffs

by Mike Kahn

Updated: May 17, 2008, 12:04 AM EST 112 comments

At home in the playoffs

East	Celtics-Cavs			Pistons-Magic
Game	Home	Winner		Home	Winner
1
2
3
4
5
6				—	—
West	Lakers-Jazz			Hornets-Spurs
Game	Home	Winner		Home	Winner
1
2
3
4
5
6

The Utah Jazz hung around all night in Los Angeles. but when it mattered most it looked as if they were playing with a basketball that just came out of the microwave, that's how unglued they were with the ball.

Nobody would dare call any team playing in the conference semifinals of this year's NBA playoffs road warriors. It wouldn't be a misnomer as much as it would be an unadulterated lie.

It only took a moment to sink in what required about five hours Wednesday night . . . when the Cavs lost to the Celtics and the Lakers handled the Jazz again. It was just another confirmation of what coaches love to preach -- the regular season really is of dire importance to earn home-court advantage.

The home team in the conference semifinals this year is a devastating 19-1 entering Thursday's game at San Antonio between the Spurs and Hornets, with it seemingly becoming more difficult in each stop.

The only victory away from home in this round was the Detroit Pistons winning at Orlando in the lone series that required just five games. Otherwise, teams have been winning big at home only to get trounced on the road. Although both the Cavs and Jazz losses Wednesday were by a reasonable seven points, the overall average margin of victory in the second round has been more than 12 points a game.

The best example has been the New Orleans Hornets-San Antonio Spurs series, where the average point differential for the home team has been a whopping 18 points. In their three homes wins, the Hornets have won by 19.7 points. In the two games at San Antonio, they lost by an average of 15.5 points.

What we don't understand is why.

The home team always tends to have the advantage, but not like this. In the first round, the home team had a 30-14 record — the higher seed posting a dominant 21-3 record, which tends to be expected in opening playoff series. It's not a second-round phenomenon either.

Going back a couple of years, it was not this significant. Last season's second round had the home team with a 13-10 record, and in 2005 the home team had a 13-8 record. For some reason, it's just been craziness this time around.

Even for the Celtics, who not only had the best overall record in the NBA this season, but were 31-10 away from home, it has been a chore. They went into Texas and swept the Spurs, Mavericks and Rockets during the regular season, something nobody else in the NBA did this season, but they're 0-5 on the road in the playoffs — 0-2 in their series with the Cavs. They required seven games to get by the 37-45 Atlanta Hawks in the first round and that turned a lot of heads.

Celtics coach Doc Rivers has one explanation of the negative momentum that's more difficult to overcome on the road — even if it is nothing new in any sport.

"Of the five playoff games on the road, we've had it in three of them where good shots or bad shots aren't going in and it carries over to the other (defensive) end," Rivers said. "That can't happen. If they go in great, if they don't go in great . . . just go down and get a stop. You can see the residual of missed shots lead to bad energy on the defensive end."

The Jazz went into the Staples Center Wednesday night supremely confident they could ride Sunday's win in Salt Lake City into a series-changing victory in Game 5. Bench productivity seems to be one of the biggest differences. The Utah bench outscored the vaunted Lakers bench 39-16 on Sunday.

"Our bench stepped up and provided us with a lot of scoring and a lot of energy. We need to take that to L.A.," Williams said. "We're confident now but we still need to prove we can win on the road."

They couldn't do it, and here's one explanation. Utah's reserves still outscored the Lakers bench 18-13 Wednesday night, but the huge advantage at the free-throw line evaporated. Utah was 37-of-45 to Los Angeles' 14-of-25 on Sunday. That was twisted into 34-of-42 for L.A. to 24-of-28 for Utah in Game 5.

Conspiracy theorists could contend that the league wants it that way, thus the free-throw disparity in favor of the home team.

Spurs coach Gregg Popovich was mystified by why his team was just 12-of-18 from the foul line in Tuesday's 101-79 loss at New Orleans, while the Hornets were 25-of-33. He spoke about that Wednesday afternoon, elaborating on the abuse point guard Tony Parker took during the game with just five free throws, and Tim Duncan went to the line once.

"It's in the eye of the beholder I guess," Popovich said. "There's no gauge to show you on a scale of 1-10 how hard (Parker) got hit, or this or that. One thing we didn't expect was the disparity free throw-wise. We've got to figure out a way to get to the line. Timmy took 18 shots and shot one free throw. They shot 13 free throws in the third quarter. We shot zero. And I thought we were at the rim as much as they were. So we've got to figure out how to get to the line.

"That's not something you expect. You figure that will probably even itself out during the game. That's one of those things that you hope will be pretty much a wash. That's not something we expected. That hurt us not getting to the line."

Actually, Popovich was right on the money about it being a wash until Game 5. The two teams had taken exactly the same number of free throws through Game 4. Chances are, it will even itself out in Game 6 when they return to San Antonio. But that's nothing new either. Huge disparities often occur between home and the road — always have and always will.

Instead of focusing on the disparity, it really comes down to parity. The Pistons just showed more experience, toughness and consistency; which is why they dispatched of the Magic in five games. The other teams are just that close. It's a little hard to believe that the three remaining series will go seven games, but considering the way the first five have gone, it's even more difficult to fathom that the Hornets, Lakers or Celtics will win Game 6 on the road. Besides, three of the four series in 2006 went seven games, so it wouldn't be unprecedented.

And the only team to lose Game 7 at home that year was the Spurs, who succumbed to the Mavericks in overtime.

"The bottom line is the better team wins in a seven-game series," said Popovich, whose club is seeking its fifth NBA title in 10 years and fourth in the last six. "I've always said that, so whoever wins the series it will be because they're a better team."

Or in this particular season, it's the home-court advantage.