NBA Finals breakdown: A magnificent matchup
2008 NBA Finals
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Tuesday's Game 6
Analysis
- Whitlock: A color-blind championship
- Kahn: Are Celtics a team for ages?
- Hill: Bad karma for Zen Master
- Kahn: Celtics win it with defense
- Kriegel: Celtics bring pride back
- Rosen: Boston at its best in finale
- Goodman: Kobe comes up short
Lakers-Celtics history
- Hill: Rivalry's 10 greatest moments
- Behrendt: Bird, Magic reminisce
- Hill: Ranking the Celtics-Lakers Finals
- Boeck: West revisits the rivalry
- Kahn: Gamesmanship marks rivalry
- Whatifsports.com: All-time teams series
Photos
Video
Also
Bill Russell has nothing to do with Kevin Garnett in the same way that Jerry West and Kobe Bryant are at the opposite ends of imaginary equations. Also, the gremlins have not survived the move from the Bah-ston Gah-den to TD Bankworth Garden. Nor will Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Jerry West or James Worthy tally any points for the current edition of the Lakers.
Hold the hype, then, as we investigate what can be expected from the actual match-ups we'll be witnessing in the next several days.
Point guards
When it comes to sheer talent, Rajon Rondo has it all over Derek Fisher. Speed, quickness, mobility, agility and ups. But Fisher's considerable edge is his experience.
He knows that Rondo's jump shooting can be virtually ignored. That when the young man penetrates to the vicinity of the rim he's much more likely to shoot than to pass. That Rondo will take unnecessary chances with the ball. That, on defense, he'll frequently roam too far to initiate a double-team and won't be able to recover to his own man in a timely fashion.
Look for Rondo to continue his penchant for alternating between brilliant plays and knuckleheaded ones. Look for him to get periodically confused by the Lakers' triangle offense. And look for Fisher to get plenty of wide-open shots.
In the back-up spots, Sam Cassell has the same advantages over Jordan Farmar as Fisher does over Rondo — except that Cassell's game is going, going and long-gone. For Cassell to compensate for his awful defense he must shoot at least 50 percent. Too bad he only shot 24.2 percent against the Cavs, and 23.1 percent against the Pistons. There's no way that Cassell can keep up with the frenetic tempo of the Lakers' second unit.
Doc Rivers might very well try to match Cassell against the slower Fisher, and use Rondo against Farmar. In this scenario, Fisher will enjoy an even bigger advantage, while Rondo just might outplay Farmar.
Significant advantage: Lakers
Wing players
Historically, Kobe Bryant has had difficulty defending Ray Allen. That's because Kobe's ostensible forte is one-on-one defense, not chasing his man around perpetual screens. If Allen has indeed regained his touch, he will surely get his points. On the flip side, Kobe will absolutely annihilate Allen's pedestrian defense.
Sasha Vujacic's quickness and length will bother Allen at both ends of the court. And Vujacic's ability to nail his quick-release trey attempts will be one of the key elements of the series. James Posey, however, has the ways and means of stifling Vujacic, but only if the Celtics can keep the Lakers' benchlings from running amok.
Vladimir Radmanovic's time in defense of Paul Pierce will merely be a holding action. Without diligent help from his teammates, V-Rad has no chance of containing PP. Neither does Luke Walton, who could easily be shut down himself if and when he's opposed by the diligent defense of James Posey. But the Walton-Posey matchup will likewise be a case of both teams preparing for the end-game.
When the game is up for grabs, look for Kobe to move to small forward (with Vujacic playing 2-guard) and going mano-a-mano with Pierce. This should be the most interesting matchup in the entire series. Pierce will certainly get his looks, especially if Kobe continues to take too many reckless gambles on defense — but Kobe is Kobe, and he's apt to pin a bunch of fouls on Pierce. Which is precisely why Pierce must avoid picking up unnecessary fouls early in the game.
In fact, the only Celtic who can possibly keep Kobe from going off is Posey. It will be interesting to note how Rivers arranges his rotations so that Posey gets max-time versus the best player in the league.
Advantage: Lakers, only because of Kobe.
The big men
How will the two coaches play this? Lamar Odom versus Kevin Garnett, and Pau Gasol versus Kendrick Perkins? The guess is that the assignments at this position will be mix-and-match.
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| Kevin Garnett and Lamar Odom each might have trouble guarding the other. (Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images) |
That said, Gasol will get beaucoup time opposite KG in another critical matchup. Indeed, if Gasol continues his wimpish play, Garnett will eat him alive. Plus, Garnett's rep as a defensive whiz is mostly based on his ability to play aggressive post-defense (he's especially effective three-quartering his man and therefore denying easy entry passes). Since Gasol lacks the mass (and the will?) to establish and hold optimum position on the box, Garnett could easily make him a non-factor.
But that would leave Odom to face-up Perkins either at the foul line or the right baseline and easily out-quick KP to the hoop. Also, while Perkins is much stronger than Odom, LO is quicker off the floor and will therefore be able to hold his own in the battle of the boards.
In any possible Odom-Garnett confrontations, both will get their fair share of points — but only if Odom can establish and maintain his focus, something he's never been able to do on a regular basis.
Gasol would have a relatively easy time defending Kendrick — although he will be bullied for an occasional put-back. At the same time, Gasol should be able to turn, face and go to good effect against the Celtics' young and still-developing biggie.
Ronny Turiaf can bang KG around for a few minutes, and also use his superior quickness to limit Perkins' effectiveness. Should Turiaf go against Glen Davis, the bone-on-bone collisions will quiver the needles on all of the local Richter scales.
P.J. Brown could be effective in defense of Gasol, but should be routinely out-quicked by Odom.
Slight advantage: Celtics
Team defense
The Celtics are much more physical, and play screen/rolls better. The Lakers are quicker, and are better ball hawks. Much depends on how much effort Kobe will exert in playing solid, fundamental defense. As always, how the refs see the game will be of paramount importance, with the Celtics' physicality making them vulnerable to be more tooted against than tooted for.
With Perkins-Garnett battling against Gasol-Odom, the defensive rebounds should be equable.
Considerable advantage: Celtics
Team offense
The Lakers want to go up-tempo, while the Celtics (except for Rondo) want to grind it out. In half-court situations, Boston will end up relying more on the individual talents of its Big 3, while the Lakers will begin by relying more on player- and ball-movement. That should mean more layups for L.A., and more open jumpers for Boston. Even so, the Lakers' overall perimeter shooting is superior to the Celtics'.
There's always the possibility (as in the first quarter of Game 4 against the Spurs) that Bryant will abort the triangle in favor of over-handling and taking too many quick shots. In that case, Kobe will need to score 50-plus for the Lakers to win.
Otherwise, expect Kobe to set up his teammates until crunch time. That's when the best finisher in the game can be unstoppable.
The lateral quickness of Gasol and Odom should mean an edge on the offensive glass for the Lakers. Yes, KG is also quick laterally, but he's frequently too far from the basket (especially when he launches his favorite fadeaway jumpers) to be a constant threat to retrieve his teammates' missed shots.
Advantage: Lakers
Bench players
Vujacic, Walton, Farmar and Turiaf work well together and are quite capable of changing the tempo of the game. Posey, Cassell, Davis and Brown are all role players with minimal impact.
Big advantage: Lakers
Coaches
Not even close. PJ's been there, done that, is a master motivator and technician. Rivers is a stranger in paradise.
Huge advantage: Lakers
Prediction
Barring debilitating injuries to important players, and/or unusually inept officiating, this will be a highly competitive go-round — with the Lakers prevailing in a triple-overtime seventh game.
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