Rumors run rampant with free agency in play

by Mike Kahn

Veteran sportswriter Mike Kahn has been covering the NBA since 1984 and brings his unique perspective on the league to FOXSports.com. Reach him at MikeKahn@hotmail.com.


Updated: July 1, 2008, 2:36 PM EST 29 comments

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The splash had the impact of 10,000 seats from Oracle Arena getting dumped off the Bay Bridge.

Golden State Warriors coach Don Nelson has said more than once recently that he wants to go young this season, even if it costs them some wins. Was that his point when he benched Baron Davis for the second half of their biggest game of last season?

Well, fine. Davis made his point Monday night when he shocked the Warriors and opted out of the final year of his contract that would have paid him $17.8 million.

And so began the opening of the 2008-09 offseason for the NBA when contracts move to the next level — whether that translates into expiration — opt-out clauses may be activated, base-year compensation factors may go away, or a contract just moves to the next season.

Although Davis, still only 29, has repeatedly said he wants to play out his career in the Bay Area, this was his only leverage to perhaps shock the Warriors, who have dragged their feet in giving him an extension and downplayed the importance of the two-time All-Star point guard in the big picture.

Meanwhile, down the road in Davis' hometown of Los Angeles, All-Star forward Elton Brand opted out of his contract with the Clippers, as did forward Corey Maggette, the constant focus of trade rumors. This scenario does open up the possibility of renouncing Maggette, who was slated to make about $7 million this season, signing Davis and then re-signing Brand as a Larry Bird exception for whatever they deem fair over the long haul.

Would Davis take such a huge pay cut just to go home, along with being more conducive to his burgeoning film production career? It's not likely because of the financial loss, but it remains a possibility if Warriors owner Chris Cohan doesn't step up with a long-term deal, not to mention young restricted free agents Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, along with the whispers that ubiquitous forward Al Harrington wouldn't be opposed to being moved if they are so inclined.

To be sure, the Clippers would love to pair Davis with Brand, but there are no guarantees. With the wheels now spinning everywhere, the continued pursuit of Brand by the Miami Heat may just move to another level over the next week or so. As for Maggette, there are a lot of teams that could use the athletic 6-6 swingman, including his first team — the Orlando Magic — and the Cleveland Cavaliers. The problem is the price of acquisition and his desire for $10 million a year.

None of it can happen, of course, until the 2008-09 salary cap goes into effect in the coming weeks, but lots of winks will take place sooner than later.

One player who elected not to opt out was Sacramento Kings forward Ron Artest, who will still very likely be the subject of trade speculation throughout the coming season with an expiring contract and the potential mental meltdown that has sullied his career as one of the top defenders in the NBA.

The arrival of July 1 also produced action in the District of Columbia, with Antawn Jamison reportedly agreeing to a $50 million extension with the Washington Wizards. More than $100 million is being bandied about over six years for Gilbert Arenas, despite having surgery twice on his left knee over the past year. Topping that off, the Warriors are believed to have answered Davis' move by throwing major numbers at Arenas, who began his career there. All of that talk could result in some sign-and-trade possibilities as well.

But it's a little early for that.

A couple of free agent point guards are expected to have new deals in the coming week with Chris Duhon leaving the Chicago Bulls, most likely for the New York Knicks, and Beno Udrih will have the option to re-sign with the Kings, while the Clippers and a multitude of other teams, including the Knicks, will be interested in offering him a large part of the mid-level exception that will be in the vicinity of $6 million.

Still lingering in Clipperland is the inconclusive point guard story of Shaun Livingston, the immensely gifted fourth overall pick in the 2004 draft, whose career remains in jeopardy from a horrific knee injury suffered in February 2007. The Clippers didn't give him a qualifying offer so he is a free agent, and doctors still won't allow him to compete in the NBA summer league. At 6-6 and exceedingly slight, he's still only 22 and his recovery will be watched by many.

There are other point guards out there with both Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling ready and willing to leave Orlando, although Dooling is much more of a combo-guard than someone to run an offense. It will be interesting to see what kind of interest young Sebastian Telfair draws, a major disappointment so far in his career with Portland, Boston and Minnesota. Nonetheless, he's still only 23, has immense natural gifts as a point guard — shooting and defense excluded.

Although the newly crowned champion Celtics don't want versatile sixth man James Posey to leave as a free agent, he made only $3.2 million last season and both the Detroit Pistons and Los Angeles Lakers have shown considerable interest in landing the 6-7 deluxe defender who seemingly always knocks down the open 3-pointer.

Free agency is just the start of action, though. Once the dust clears from the salary cap, the potential trades will begin to buzz, with Artest not the only name being thrown around.

Expect the Pacers and Raptors to complete the deal that includes Jermaine O'Neal and the rights to the 41st overall pick in the draft, Nathan Jawaii, heading north of the border for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, forward Maceo Baston and the rights to the 17th pick of the draft, Georgetown center Roy Hibbert. This is likely only the start for Larry Bird reconstructing the Pacers, who also made a draft day deal by sending 11th overall pick Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu to Portland for Jarrett Jack, Josh McRoberts and the rights to the 13th overall pick in the draft Brandon Rush. That opens up the possibility for the trade or release of talented but unreliable Jamaal Tinsley and creates other options.

In Boston and Miami, James Posey proved he can help win a championship. (Jim Rogash / Getty Images)

With the New Jersey Nets continuing moves throughout the draft, dealing Richard Jefferson away on draft day for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons, there is always the potential of them moving Vince Carter as well. First, they have to decide on restricted free agent Nenad Krstic, so promising two years ago, but slow to recover from offseason knee surgery over the past season. Krstic is only 24, so it will be interesting to see what kind of action he stirs up on the market. So far, the Nets have , but nothing more.

Across the Hudson, with Donnie Walsh now in charge of the Knicks and Mike D'Antoni the coach, there is more to do than just trying to sign Duhon or Udrih, for that matter. One way or another they'll have to deal with mercurial Stephon Marbury, either as their starting point guard or another huge contract to eat. But if someone does show interest, it will require parting with forward David Lee, a double-double guy with a reasonable contract and really the only player on the roster who continuously sparks inquiries from around the league.

As Steve Kerr continues to reconstruct the Phoenix Suns with Terry Porter as his coach, the watch continues on the future of Leandro Barbosa and Boris Diaw in the Valley of the Sun. Both were horrible disappointments late in the season, particularly in the playoffs, and without D'Antoni's open floor offense, there are serious doubts they will fit into the long-term plans.

And while we're on the topic of former Suns, Shawn Marion did not opt out of the final year of his contract in Miami, and will be watched very closely by president Pat Riley to see how well he fits with Dwyane Wade and top draft choice Michael Beasley. Will they sign him to a long-term extension, or use Marion's fat expiring contract to seek youth and talent for the roster?

That leaves one more team going through transition with some interesting moves ahead, and that would be the Dallas Mavericks. With new coach Rick Carlisle, there has been plenty of talk about re-signing free agent center DeSagana Diop, who was one of the key pieces sent to New Jersey in the notorious Jason Kidd trade. Is he worth the full exception?

And what about former All-Star forward Josh Howard? He faded precipitously last season, not to mention his poor judgment announcing to the world through various media outlets that he smokes pot, as do plenty of his NBA brethren. It would seem logical to assume Howard is part of the Mavericks instability, unless Carlisle would rather have him through the first half of the season under his system before making any decisions.

To be sure, it's early and there will be far more rumors than deals as always. That's part of what makes it equal parts fun and frustrating. July is here, and just as quickly as the 2007-08 season ended, 2008-09 has already begun.

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