From Davis to Artest, what free agents are worth

by Charley Rosen

Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 15 books about hoops, the current ones being The First Tip-Off: The Incredible Story of the Birth of the NBA and No Blood, No Foul.


Updated: July 3, 2008, 11:10 AM EST 156 comments

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The annual free-agent madness is upon us. Eight- and nine-figure sums are being casually bandied about, rumors arise and quickly sink, commitments are made, and mistakes are confessed. The destinies of franchises are up for sale.

It's the perfect time to investigate the possible futures as well as the ultimate value of the most prominent unrestricted free agents.

Baron Davis

He's reportedly headed to Los Angeles where it is hoped that he can point (guard) the Clippers into championship contention. While Davis certainly has the talent and the star power to accomplish this formidable task, his return to his home town would be accompanied by several caveats.

  • In 2005, when he was traded from New Orleans to Golden State for Speedy Claxton and Dale Davis, the rap on Davis was that he was selfish beyond redemption and would eventually betray whatever trust his new employers were foolish enough to extend to him. Three years later, this prediction has certainly come to pass.

  • Then (and now) Davis was a shoot-first point guard, who only passed when defenses converged on him. Unless he knows that he'll be on the other end of the play, only rarely (and reluctantly) does Davis execute a pass that's designed to initiate an offensive sequence.

  • Some NBA-watchers believe that Davis will undergo a personality change should he land in L.A. Since he's now 29 and a veteran of nine seasons, their theory is that Davis is ready to sublimate his ego and do whatever would be necessary to make the Clippers a legitimate contender. This is wishful thinking. A more realistic expectation would be that, after the honeymoon period, Davis would be moved to assert his domination over his new team.

  • All things being equal (which they aren't), Davis is better off staying in Golden State where the team is unquestionably his, and where Don Nelson gives him license to shoot.

    Elton Brand

    Assuming that Brand has made a full recovery, he's a dependable 20-10 low-post player who's added a deadly mid-range jumper to his repertoire. In Chicago, he was averse to practicing with any degree of enthusiasm, but has since become a full-time worker, willing passer, and adequate defender — all of which make Brand a legitimate franchise player.

    Odds are that should the Clippers indeed sign Baron Davis, Brand will be so convinced that the team is moving in the right direction that he'll re-up. The problem then will be evolving a mutually beneficial on-court relationship with Davis (i.e., determining which of them would be the go-to guy).

    If the proposed union of Davis and Brand would be amicable, then the Clippers would indeed have the core of a team dynamic enough to mount a serious threat to usurp the Lakers for the top-spot in Tinsel Town as well as in the Western Conference.

    Gilbert's good...but $100 million? That's a bit steep. (Ned Dishman / Getty Images)

    Gilbert Arenas

    This guy can score inside, outside and in-between. But he's defenseless, increasingly injury-prone, utterly self-serving, and distressingly erratic in clutch situations. In sum, he's hardly worth the $100 million that the Warriors have offered, much less the Wizards' $125 million bid. In any case, Arenas would be better served in Golden State where Nellie would grant him the same freedom that he gave to Baron Davis.

    Corey Maggette

    Used to be that Maggette always played hard at both ends of the court, but he's succumbed to the temptations of being in Star City too long. Clearly, Maggette needs (and will get) a change of scenery.

    San Antonio would be the best landing spot for both him and the Spurs. A new environment of superior coaching, championship-caliber players, and truly devoted fans would undoubtedly rekindle Maggette's passion for the game. At the same time, his youthful talents would immediately spur San Antonio to recapture the rapture.

    James Posey

    While it's hard to envision Posey abandoning the Celtics, the temptations of Los Angeles should never be discounted. Also, given Andrew Bynum's return to the threshold of greatness, the addition of Posey would seriously threaten Boston's ability to repeat. The prospect of becoming a starter in L.A. would likewise be hard to resist. In fact, should Posey decide to change uniforms, donning the Lakers' blue-and-gold would be the only reasonable alternative.

    Chris Duhon

    The Knicks have reportedly made an offer, and Duhon should grab it fast — but only if Stephon Marbury is dropped by the wayside. Duhon takes care of the ball, has terrific court-awareness, is unselfish, and plays above-average defense. His perimeter shooting has always been questionable but has greatly improved as of late. Plus, the more shots he attempts (as befitting a starter) the better his accuracy will be.

    If Marbury remains on the scene, however, then Duhon is advised to go elsewhere. Miami would be a good fit, as would Washington should Arenas leave.

    Bonzi...take the money...whatever it is. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

    Bonzi Wells

    Given his uneven play and his prickly personality, Wells should immediately sign with whichever team is foolish enough to make him an offer.

    Jannero Pargo

    His talents as an off-the-bench scorer are perfectly suited to the Hornets' game plan. Why, then, would he want to play anywhere else? Money? Would $1-2 million more or less really make a significant difference in his lifestyle given the salary that he (and other NBA veterans) already makes?

    DeSagana Diop

    A return to Dallas seems likely, and is actually a good fit. Especially since Erick Dampier is extraordinarily foul-prone, which means that Diop's minutes will be maximized.

    Bostjan Nachbar

    Anybody out there looking for a soft, athletic, outside shooter who can't guard a fire hydrant? Nachbar should take the money and stay.

    Matt Barnes' skills might be well-suited to the Knicks. (Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE / Getty Images)

    Matt Barnes

    He can score in bunches, drop treys, and run all day. While it's true that Barnes is a mistake-player (especially on defense), he'd still find a perfect niche coming off the bench for Mike D'Antoni's newly reconstituted Knicks.

    Ricky Davis

    Should Barnes vacate the premises, the Warriors could certainly use Davis's shoot-first-and-ask-no-questions approach.

    Carlos Arroyo

    Arroyo requires too much ball-time to be a real player on a real team. Any offer should not be refused.

    Keyon Dooling

    Somewhat wild and erratic, Dooling remains a shot-happy combo-guard. Just the kind of guy Nellie loves to have at the end of his bench.

    And then there's Ron Artest, who said that not opting out of Sacramento was a big "mistake," according to ESPN.com

    This statement either means that Artest's brain-power is of the lowest wattage possible, or he's a genius since he's guaranteed himself a nice fall-back paycheck while at the same time forcing the Kings to trade him. Don't be surprised if he lands with the Lakers.

    It should also be noted that the first option is the most probable given Artest's last-minute plea to be included on the USA Olympic basketball squad. After bragging on his skills, Artest added "my character speaks for itself," according to ESPN.com.

    Exactly.

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