Offseason moves won't help Warriors' playoff bid

by Mike Kahn

Veteran sportswriter Mike Kahn has been covering the NBA since 1984 and brings his unique perspective on the league to FOXSports.com. Reach him at MikeKahn@hotmail.com.

Updated: September 4, 2008, 12:10 AM EST 19 comments

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Looking into the NBA's crystal ball, perhaps no picture is as murky as that surrounding the Golden State Warriors.

First Baron Davis leaves via free agency.

Stephen Jackson has begun whining about his contract and wants to get a fat extension ... now!

And that brings us to Monta Ellis, who suffered a torn deltoid ligament in his left ankle that required surgery last Wednesday, and the Warriors don't believe he did it working out in Mississippi as he claims. They're investigating now, and if they do find out he did it playing ball with his buddies, does it fly in the face of a clause in his contract prohibiting such activity? Would they actually consider voiding the whopping six-year, $66-million contract he signed in July?

Ah, the Warriors. We actually began to believe that Chris Mullin had actually rescued the franchise from inexorable doom over the past few years. They had gone 13 years without making the playoffs until 2007 — the longest drought in the NBA — let alone win a playoff series for the first time since 1991.

It seems like just yesterday that the W's were drawing celebrities to Oracle Arena at the same pace as Madison Square Garden and the Staples Center. There was Carlos Santana jamming his way into the building as the Pied Piper, followed by Woody Harrelson, Kate Hudson, Snoop Dogg and more of the Who's Who crowd. The Oracle was the place to be seen and heard in the Bay Area, with the Warriors suddenly the "It" team.

It began with Mullin's call to Maui, attempting to lure his former coach of the late-1980s, early-1990s with the Warriors back into the game. Once again, Don Nelson had returned from the ashes to bring his version of "Smallball" into play, which was even more significant this time around given the success the Phoenix Suns were having under Mike D'Antoni's direction.

And with the exciting trio of Davis, Ellis and Jackson, the Warriors stormed down the stretch of the regular season to slide into the eighth seed of the Western Conference and upset the No. 1 seed Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2007 playoffs in what some consider the biggest playoff upset in NBA history. Throughout the playoffs and into last season, the Warriors routinely drew what were purported to be the largest indoor crowds in California history.

They increased their season ticket base for the 2007-08 season to somewhere in the vicinity of a record 5,500. Then Nelson stomped and screamed until owner Chris Cohan guaranteed his contract with an extension, instead of the meat of the deal being incentive-based.

They got off to a slow start, primarily due to an early season, league-mandated suspension for Jackson for his role in a nightclub incident in Indianapolis. But the huge, raucous crowds continued and the W's resumed upon Jackson's return and the Warriors were seemingly playoff bound. But in the rugged Western Conference, they came up short despite winning 48 games. Nelson and Davis, an unrestricted free agent, were no longer on the same page — particularly when Davis sat on the bench the entire second half of the Warriors' elimination game.

Obviously something was up despite the oft-injured point guard playing 82 games for the first time in seven years and averaging more minutes than any of his previous three seasons at Golden State. Consequently, when negotiations dragged, the rumor mill was abuzz with contradictions.

Nonetheless, when free agency hit in July and Davis leaked that he had agreed to head home to Los Angeles and play for the Clippers, it was a stunning blow. The Warriors attempted to retaliate by luring Elton Brand, who had promised to stick with Davis. But Brand pulled the biggest surprise of all by bolting to Philadelphia, so the Warriors settled by signing Corey Maggette from the Clippers, counting on Ellis to adjust to running the point.

Corey Maggette, who signed with Golden State over the summer, will look to put the Warriors back in the playoffs next season. ( / Getty Images)

It made some sense at the time. Ellis is natural with the ball in his hands, with speed that led many to describe him as Allen Iverson in a bigger body. Realistically, the Ellis, Maggette and Jackson combo is actually faster and more athletic, if not as accomplished, without Davis.

Then came the news of Ellis' injury. OK, maybe young Marcus Williams, acquired from New Jersey, can evolve into the kind of point guard many believed he could be coming out of Connecticut. And maybe everything will work out with Ellis — he'll recover from his surgery quicker than anticipated and the Warriors will be a factor in the West.

But it just doesn't seem likely. Mullin has already proven to be just as clever a general manager as he was a player. Yet he is also unorthodox and instinctive. He miscalculated by hiring Mike Montgomery, who was ill-prepared for the NBA after gaining fame with Stanford-quality basketball players in the Pac-10. He gambled on Nelson and won. These moves since being named executive vice president have raised the Warriors' average win total to 39.5 per season over the four years compared to slightly more than 25 in the six years for the previous regime.

More to the point, there is big-picture history to consider. Since their NBA title in 1975 — making the playoffs six of seven years under the guidance of coach Al Attles, whose toughness as a point guard in the league was only exceeded by his coaching — the Warriors have been in the playoffs just six times in 32 years. Five of those came with Nelson as coach, the other with George Karl (while Nelson was the general manager).

Maybe it just fits the Bay Area to be unconventional in approach, just as the A's and Raiders in particular have always marched to their own beat. The 49ers and Giants have also been different in their own ways. But none of the Bay Area franchises have failed as consistently as the Warriors.

It's only a matter of time before Nelson implodes for one last time. League sources say Cohan is so litigious his fortune could blow up in his face at any time. And even though Mullin does appear to have a handle on how to be successful in this league, this so-called investigation into Ellis' injury seems pretty ridiculous. He probably was playing ball when it happened, and it was a woeful miscalculation on his part — something that is hardly unusual for any 22-year-old athlete.

Essentially what we're seeing is the Warriors come back to earth where they belong. They're exciting. They're quirky. And success is fleeting at best. Just accept them for who they are and realize championship caliber they are not.

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