Latest injury will derail Oden for good

So, Greg Oden is down and out again. After missing the entire 2007-08 season with microfracture surgery on his right knee, then missing 21 games last season, first with an injury to his right foot, then a bone chip in his left knee, Oden is now projected as being out for the season with a fractured left knee cap. Instead of becoming the savior of the Trail Blazers' future, he's become the poster boy for Gray's Anatomy. Too bad, because Oden is universally hailed as being modest, kind-hearted, hard-working, all-around good guy. And his latest injury — which seemed to occur spontaneously without his being touched by friend or foe — is fraught with significance, both for Oden and the Blazers. Except for the season-to-season education of youngsters like Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, and LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland is right back where it was before it made Oden the NBA's top draft pick in June 2007: A young, quick, athletic team that lacks a big-time presence in the middle and is therefore overly reliant on jump shots. The draft pick of a lifetime has essentially been wasted, and Portland must now embark on yet another rebuilding program. Plus, with the not-so-secret disruption of team chemistry resulting from the signing of Andre Miller — who has to start, wants to start, and thought he would be starting — the Blazers are even in worse shape than they were three years ago. It's hard to imagine that Portland will be interested in re-signing Oden when his contract expires in 2011. Unfortunately, their salary cap will still be overflowing until then, which makes adding a big-name free-agent center next summer highly unlikely. Indeed, they might be forced to aim as low as Jermaine O'Neal. Whereas two days ago the Blazers were a team on the rise, they've suddenly become just another franchise condemned to tread water while waiting and scheming for some dramatic development to rescue their future. And what about Oden? It says here that an important factor in his physical breakdowns is the excessive time and effort he habitually expended in the weight room. The 25-plus pounds of muscle he added after he was drafted cost him too much quickness, altered his body balance, and put undue stress on his knees and feet. It's ironic that, after missing so many games since he was drafted, he has actually played in the equivalent of one entire NBA season: During his sporadic career, Oden has thus far played in exactly 82 contests. For sure, during the 21 games in which he appeared this season, Oden did show marked improvement — an impressive 11.7 points and 8.8 rebounds in only 23.9 minutes per game. While still lacking any degree of finesse, Oden's power, mass, and determination made him at least a part-time force to be reckoned with in the lane. However, as evidenced by some additional numbers, he still has a very long way to go. For example, the discrepancy of his 0.6 assists per game as compared with his 1.5 turnovers can be blamed on his clumsy ball-handling, awkward footwork, and the ensuing confusion whenever he was double-teamed on the move. Here's another significant statistical comparison. During those 82 games, Oden averaged 3.5 successful field goals, while committing 3.9 fouls. Even if Oden were the picture of health, he'd still be 2-3 seasons away from becoming a consistently effective center capable of leading his team into viable championship contention. However, the sum total of his stats and his injuries seems to indicate that Oden is destined to become little more than a hugely superfluous expense for the Blazers. Once/if Oden does undergo still another successful rehabilitation, perhaps some fabulously wealthy and desperate franchise (New York? Chicago?) could eventually be enticed to accept him in a trade. But his contract alone makes this extremely doubtful — as doubtful, say, as the possibility of Oden's commanding a big-time free agent bonanza in 2011. Oden's physical woes are reminiscent of the careers of Sam Bowie (who played in only 511 of 820 possible games), and Bill Walton (468 of 820). But, when healthy, Bowie was an outstanding high-post player, and Walton was one of the finest centers of his generation. Oden is, and will be, neither. Unless he can experience a miraculous — and long-lasting — healing, Oden's future is behind him.