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What to expect from young stars in 2009-10

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Charley Rosen

Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 17 sports books, the current ones being Bullpen Diaries: Mariano Rivera, Bronx Dreams, Pinstripe Legends, and the Future of the New York Yankees and Crazy Basketball: A Life In and Out of Bounds.

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The NBA is populated by many fully-realized superstars as well as even more unsuccessful superstar wannabes. Throw in over-the hill veterans, role players of various talents and specialists of every stripe. Yet, perhaps the most intriguing NBA citizens are the youngsters who have already enjoyed considerable acclaim and have the potential to evolve into truly elite performers. The upcoming season will be critical for a handful of star-quality, 25-and-under players. So here's what the best of these guys need to show in 2009-10 in order to prove that they're indeed on their way to the next level of excellence. Kevin Durant (almost 21 years old, two seasons in NBA): Every aspect of his field-goal shooting showed marked improvement from his rookie season to his sophomore season — as did his rebounding totals. However, his individual defense is still inferior, and this is where he needs to exhibit the most improvement. After all, if he scores 25 points and the man he's guarding gets, say, 20, then Durant's total impact on the game is minimal. Moreover, with opponents continually attacking him, Durant will habitually be in foul trouble, which will limit his court time and limit his point production. A lack of physical strength is his biggest problem on defense, and it will be interesting to see how much offseason time he's spent in the weight room. Another category that requires improvement is Durant's negative assist-turnover ratio, but this is mostly a function of his poor court vision. His normal maturation process should greatly reduce the number of times Durant tries to force his dribble through hostile crowds — as well as his errant passwork. Also, as his team improves, Durant won't feel compelled to take as many quick shots as he has in the past. Right now, there's no question that Durant is an excellent shooter. But to become a legitimate NBA icon, his defense, handling, passing and decision-making will have to make quantum leaps. Derrick Rose (20 years old, one season): Young Rose has all of the qualities to become a bona-fide superstar. He has the quickness, the speed, the abilities to both drive-and-dish and drive-and-finish, plus the willingness to pass and defend. Even as a mere rookie, Rose also illustrated his courage by being unafraid to take big shots. What he needs to demonstrate this year is a vast improvement in his 3-point shooting and better reactions on defense. The former is somewhat tricky because of his low release, but the latter should come with experience. Also, Rose must (and will) learn to read defenses in order to avoid over-penetrating — which leads to turnover passes and too many forced shots under heavy pressure. The Hall of Fame is the limit for Rose. It's all up to him. Al Jefferson (24 years old, five seasons): For sure, Jefferson can score and rebound with any other big man in the league. Too bad that's all he can do.
He absolutely must show signs this year that he's becoming a complete player. That means defending, passing and becoming a team-oriented player. It will be easy to determine as the season unfolds if Jefferson is truly intent on being compared to somebody like Kevin McHale — or else becoming a high-scoring, low-value dud like Zach Randolph. Andre Iguodala (24 years old, five seasons): Philly's current AI is strong, willing and one of the quickest slashers in the league. What he needs to show is a better long-range shot, a better stop-and-pop game and the consistent ability to be a go-to scorer in the clutch. Now that Andre Miller is elsewhere and the untested Lou Williams plays the point, it's imperative that Iguodala assert more on-court leadership than he has done in the past. His capacity to be an inspirational and reliable player is the key to the Sixers' short- and long-range destinies. Brandon Roy (25 years old, three seasons): Virtually everything about Roy's game is commendable. Of course, his defense could be a tad better, but that's true of just about every player in the league. Other than that, starting this season, Roy must avoid settling for jumpers and become more intent on attacking the hoop. Indeed, he only averaged 6.47 free throws per game last season — good enough to lead his team, but not good enough to be a reliable scorer in the endgame. Andrew Bynum (21 years old, four seasons): This young man must show improvement in several physical categories — like staying healthy and developing better footwork on both ends of the court. Even so, his biggest problem is his attitude. Like so many other young hot-shots, Bynum believes all of the butt-kissers who constantly tell him that he's already a great player who deserves to be playing 35-plus minutes per game and, after Kobe, being the secondary option in the offense. Besides his L.A. buddies, the chorus prematurely celebrating Bynum's game also includes many of the local media. The truth, however, is that Bynum is still a work-in-progress. He continues being befuddled on defense, and he's convinced that he should be getting many more scoring opportunities than he does. In fact, rather than accepting his role as a defender and rebounder, Bynum thinks that he is primarily a scorer. Because of all of these factors, Bynum doesn't work as hard as he should and is becoming a perpetual malcontent. What he absolutely must do this season is to simply buckle down and get busy learning how to play in the NBA. It's now or never for Bynum. If he fails to figure out what's what, he could quite possibly wind up being a career underachiever — a Benoit Benjamin with better hands. Here's some quick takes on several already elite young players. How might they continue to separate themselves from their peers? LeBron James (24 years old, six seasons): He still lacks a consistent stroke, especially when he brings the ball across his body (left to right) to release his shot. LBJ must also improve his ability to dominate a game from a post-up position. In addition, while his defense has greatly improved, running down and blocking opponents' breakaway layups is a dramatic but ultimately minor aspect of defense. LBJ must continue to improve his balance when playing straight-up defense against dangerous scorers. Also, he must make his on-the-ball decisions much quicker. It wouldn't be a bad idea either if he stopped referring to himself in the imperial third person and show some humility. Dwight Howard (23 years old, five seasons): The young man needs to develop some kind of face-up or turnaround jumper. Otherwise, smart help defenders can too often anticipate exactly where his shot will come from. Howard also must become more comfortable passing out of double teams. It's also imperative that he expands his court vision on defense. Will Howard be satisfied just leading the Magic to the Finals? Or has he understood that the Lakers exposed his various weaknesses and has therefore spent his summer trying to rectify these flaws? Carmelo Anthony (25 years old, six seasons): In the Lakers series, Anthony played outstanding defense, even against Kobe. Hopefully, that experience taught him the importance of continuing to fully exert himself at the uphill end of the court. In the past (and even against the Lakers), Anthony has also demonstrated an unfortunate penchant for disappearing for long stretches in critical ball games. So then, as the new season rapidly approaches, 'Melo must be ready to sharpen his focus and become a full-time All-Star.
Chris Paul (24 years old, four seasons): What do the Hornets do on offense? Mostly run screen-and-rolls with Paul and run isos for David West. Unfortunately, that's not enough for them to become serious championship contenders. Paul must learn the lesson of last season's profound disappointments by expanding his horizons and executing a varied, flexible offense. Of course, the impetus for this must come from Byron Scott, but Paul absolutely must develop into more of a complete facilitator. Chris Bosh (25 years old, six seasons): This guy must stop acting like there's already a niche reserved for him in the Hall of Fame and become much more aggressive near the hoop — on offense as well as defense. Deron Williams (25 years old, four seasons): His turnover rate is too high, even though he handles the ball so much. The only other factors that have tended to hinder his game are these: Carlos Boozer's leaden presence in the pivot — a problem that may soon be gone — and Jerry Sloan's highly disciplined offense that provides minimal space and time for Williams to do his thing, except when a game is on the line. Otherwise, Williams is a connoisseur's delight, a do-it-all point guard.

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