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Yao's injury may hasten Houston's downfall

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Charley Rosen

Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 17 sports books, the current ones being Bullpen Diaries: Mariano Rivera, Bronx Dreams, Pinstripe Legends, and the Future of the New York Yankees and Crazy Basketball: A Life In and Out of Bounds.

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Updated Jun 29, 2009 11:04 PM ET
     
 
A few years back I made a prediction that I'm sorry to say has apparently come to pass. On this site, I reported that a friend of mine, who happened to be both a hooper and a distinguished orthopedic surgeon, diagnosed Yao as suffering from a condition known as gigantism. Because of the "overgrowth" of his bones and the subsequent insufficiency of an adequate blood supply, Yao was therefore extremely vulnerable to various fractures. Indeed, his career has been devastated by exactly these infirmities. Playing in the NBA was stressful enough to put Yao's skeletal system at great risk — and competing in the Beijing Olympics with his penultimate fracture not completely healed certainly precipitated this current disaster. The bad news out of Houston is that Yao's latest broken bone hasn't healed, which may cause him to miss next season and might even terminate his basketball career — certainly a personal tragedy for one of the league's best and best-liked players. But the ball keeps bouncing, and the Rockets' plans have also been fractured. Without Yao, Houston did manage to provide the stiffest competition during the Lakers' championship drive. However, although they hung tough for seven games against L.A., playing at such a high level for 82 games is quite another story. So what does Houston do now? It suddenly makes no sense to sign Ron Artest to a high-end, long-term contract when the Rockets' championship hopes are busted. As he approaches his 30th birthday, Ron-Ron can still play belligerent defense against most opponents — although he has lost a half-step and can no longer keep up with the young jet-setters. Plus, he should be able to post-up with profit, create his own shots and continue his streaky perimeter shooting for another few years. But Artest is more of a complementary than a franchise player. Obviously, Houston's remaining big men — Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Joey Dorsey — are deficient in both stature and inside presence. And if there's no monster in the midway for Artest to work off of, then his talents will be wasted.
The best scenario for the Rockets is to arrange a sign-and-trade deal for Artest. But this is a tricky and a risky proposition and will work only if a team with legitimate championship hopes — Denver? Boston? Orlando? Chicago? — believes Artest can push them over the top. What else might the Rockets do to save their season? Make a trade: The catch here is that Tracy McGrady is ostensibly their biggest chip. Yet he's been on the market awhile, but because of his soft skills, overall physical fragility and the time he'll undoubtedly miss while/if his recent micro-fracture surgery heals, prospective trading partners have only offered various collections of marginal players. Carl Landry and Shane Battier are useful performers who might be exchanged for mid-level players. In fact, Battier will be 31 in September and might be more attractive to a contending team than T-Mac is. But Battier's maturity and willingness to sacrifice would be almost as difficult to replace as Yao will be. And Landry has the stuff to be a starter on a good team. Against the Lakers, Aaron Brooks demonstrated flashes of All-Star caliber talent — and might attract some interesting offers. But, if they deal Brooks, do the Rockets want to place their immediate future in the hands of one of their rookie guards? Probably not. Indeed, what would be the cost to land a guy like Chris Kaman? Probably a handful of players as well as future draft picks, but with Kaman and without Artest, Battier and/or Brooks, the Rockets would still be grounded. Sign a free agent: Too bad there's no unrestricted space-eating monsters on the board. Neither Rasheed Wallace, Carlos Boozer, Anderson Varejao, Drew Gooden or Chris Andersen would even remotely replace what Yao brought to the Rockets' mix. Draft a big: Oops, too late. Jermaine Taylor and Sergio Llull are guards. And at a too-timid 6-foot-7, Chase Budinger would ordinarily be a long-shot to make the team's rotation. In fact, given that a sign-and-trade involving Artest isn't fruitful, there's only one option that makes sense: Clean house, free up as much cap room as possible, and then be a big-time player in the zillion-dollar free-agent market a year from now. That means getting whatever they can for T-Mac: an expiring veteran with an expiring contract, a future draft pick, or some talented bench-bound youngster who hasn't shown any signs of fulfilling his potential. That also means bearing the pain of trading Battier. Brooks and Landry, however, are keepers — just in case a surprise package falls into their laps and the Rockets can still see a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. However, no matter how skillfully the Rockets can wheel and deal in the next few months, that light is likely to be the headlight of an onrushing train.
Tagged: Jazz, Tracy McGrady, Drew Gooden, Chuck Hayes, Carlos Boozer, Cavaliers, Aaron Brooks, Shane Battier, Spurs, Anderson Varejao, Pistons, Rockets, Metta World Peace, Joey Dorsey, Clippers, Chris Kaman

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