Just pointing out some stats. . .
by Terry Pluto, Plain Dealer Columnist , Plain Dealer
ABOUT THE Browns . . .
1.No matter who plays quarterback, Braylon Edwards and Jamal Lewis are just as important to improving the Browns' offense. Both had dramatic declines last season, and the regression began long before the quarterbacks started getting hurt. I'm going to use some material compiled by Pro Football Outsiders coming from their new book, "Football Outsiders Almanac 2009." Some of the material is complicated, but lots of great stuff can be found in more than 500 pages.
2.In 2008, Lewis had three runs for more than 20 yards, his longest being a 27-yarder. In 2007, he had runs of 66, 47, 31, 31, plus six other runs of more than 20 yards. That means 10 runs of at least 20 yards compared with three last year.
3.Last season, 135 of Lewis' 279 runs were for 2 or fewer yards. That was 48 percent, up from 44 percent in 2007. He had 40 runs that resulted in no yards gained or a loss. Lewis also ranked fifth in the NFL in percentage of dropped passes (16 percent), even higher than Edwards (11 percent). That's why simply looking at Lewis running for 1,002 yards doesn't tell the true story of 2008.
4.Nor was the decline in Lewis' running due strictly to the Browns losing all their quarterbacks to injury, a situation which allowed defenses to stack the line to defend the run. When Derek Anderson started the first eight games, Lewis had 535 yards, 3.7 yards per carry. In
the last eight, it was 467 yards, 3.4 yards per carry. Both numbers were way down from his 4.4-yard average in 2007 when he gained 1,304 yards.
5.Much is made of the Browns being 10-3 when Lewis receives at least 20 carries. But part of the reason he's getting 20 carries in those games is the team is playing well, he is running well and that leads to more carries. They were 7-1 in 2007 and 3-2 in 2008 when he carried the ball at least 20 times.
6.This is not to write off Lewis, or immediately write in impressive rookie James Davis as the starting running back. It is to say that this is a critical year for the 30-year-old Lewis, who needs to show he can occasionally break off a big run. If not, then the Browns need to use some sort of dual-back system with Lewis and a younger, faster back. They play six games (two each against Pittsburgh and Baltimore) against teams that ranked in the top five in run defense in 2008. Somehow, the Browns must find a way to get some yardage on the ground or it will be a very, very long season.
7.Just as critical is Edwards. The Outsiders counted 15 dropped passes for him, most in the NFL. He also had nine passes in his direction that were intercepted, that was No. 2 in the NFL. Finally, his nine penalties ranked 16th in the NFL. These are all extremely negative stats, but they are all things that can be improved upon. Penalties can be reduced, passes can be caught
and a receiver can fight hard with a defensive back to prevent interceptions.
8.In 2007, Edwards had a Pro Bowl season with 80 catches, (16 for TDs). He did not rank in the top 20 in penalties. His 12 drops were second in the NFL. Nor was he in the top 20 in having passes intercepted. Point being, he can improve on his decline in 2008, especially since Edwards will play this season at age 26.
9.Joshua Cribbs seeing regular work at receiver should help Edwards. If Cribbs is on the field often, he is a threat to catch short- and mid-range passes. The same is true of slot receiver Mike Furrey. Compare that to a heavy dose of Syndric Steptoe and Dont? Stallworth as the other receivers besides Edwards in 2008. Furrey is the third-down possession receiver the Browns have lacked since Joe Jurevicius in 2007.
10.In the past three seasons, 100 of the 177 passes Furrey caught have been for first downs. That is especially impressive since he averages about 10 yards per catch. That means he knows where to run to get the needed yards to keep drives alive. The Browns had no one to do that last season.
11.Cribbs also could help Lewis as another running threat. If he is on the field often, opposing defenses will have to pay attention to Cribbs when he goes in motion. That might create some holes for Lewis.
12.The Browns have two rookie receivers in Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi, and odds are at least one should be a factor this season. But it's a relief to know the Browns are not counting on both to make a major impact.
13.You like the Browns' screen passes in the preseason? They do look good, especially since the Browns threw the fewest screens in the NFL over the previous two seasons. The Browns also ran the fewest draw plays in the league in 2008.
14.What about Robert Royal at tight end? The Outsiders wrote: "He posted career highs in games started, receptions and yardage last year, and still was the second worst tight end in the league according to DVOA [their rating system]. Cleveland fans who were accustomed to watching Kellen Winslow do his thing should treat the news that Royal will be competing with Steve Heiden for the starting tight end job with a mixture of shock and disgust."
15.When it comes to the Winslow situation, The Outsiders whiffed, just as Winslow did on many of his blocks. Winslow was called seven times for offensive pass interference because his achy knees had trouble motoring away from defenders. His blocking was awful. He is a gifted receiver when he touches the ball, but has so many other issues. If healthy, Heiden is a solid tight end. By the end of the season, the Browns may have a number of problems - but I doubt tight end will be a major one.
ABOUT THE TRIBE . . .
1.Sometime soon, Carlos Santana will be the Tribe's catcher. It could be the middle of 2010, probably no later than 2011. That's part of the reason the Indians dealt Victor Martinez in the Justin Masterson deal. Money also was a factor, but not as much as it was in the Cliff Lee deal. Anyway, the Indians believe they have a switch-hitting catcher like Martinez in Santana, who is 23 and has been named MVP of the Class AA Eastern League. At Akron, Santana is having a monster season, hitting .287 (.928 OPS) with 21 HRs, 94 RBI and 90 walks compared with 83 strikeouts (through Friday).
2.The Indians believe Santana is close to big league-ready as a hitter. They want him to continue to work behind the plate. His arm is above average, throwing out 30 percent of potential base stealers. Anything above 25 percent is considered good. He also does a decent job blocking balls in the dirt. They want him to continue to learn English and grow in terms of working with pitchers and calling a game.
3.Which brings us to Kelly Shoppach. At the start of the season, the assumption was Shoppach could be at least a semi-regular catcher - especially after he batted .261 with 21 homers and 55 RBI in 352 at-bats in 2008. He was striking out once every three at-bats, but the Indians hoped that would improve. Instead, his offense is worse. He's hitting .209 with 90 strikeouts in 235 at-bats (a 38 percent whiff rate). An even bigger concern is Shoppach hitting only .181 vs. right-handed pitchers.
4.Defensively, the Indians say Shoppach has improved his game-calling. His throwing still has not returned to its 2007 form, when he threw out 36 percent of potential base stealers. He's at 22 percent this year. In the minors, he was near 40 percent. The Indians also believe he can do a better job blocking balls in the dirt. The question is, at age 29, is Shoppach more than a backup catcher? And with a $2 million salary, should they keep him next season? That is being discussed in the front office. The Indians need someone to help control the running game. Martinez has thrown out only 7-of-52 runners (13 percent) this season between the Tribe and Boston. Overall, the Indians have thrown out 19 percent of base stealers, second worst in the majors.
5.If Shoppach is not here in 2010 and if Santana is not ready, who catches on Opening Day? The Indians picked up Lou Marson in the Lee deal with Philadelphia. He entered Saturday in a 5-of-40 slump at Class AAA Columbus. Overall, the 23-year-old is having a respectable season in the International League, batting .276 (.709 OPS), but there's not much power (17 doubles, two homers in 308 at-bats). For his minor-league career, Marson is a .274 hitter (.752 OPS) with 27 HRs in 1,706 at-bats. Between Santana and Marson, the Indians believe they might have the catching position covered. Marson has thrown out 31 percent of base stealers.
6.They also like the progress made by Wyatt Toregas, who has played little since being promoted from Columbus. With the Clippers, he was a .284 hitter (.759 OPS) with seven homers in 208 at-bats. Toregas will be 27 next season and the Indians believe he can at least be a big-league backup. Santana is the real future behind the plate.
7.As for catcher / utility man Chris Gimenez, he must show he can hit. Gimenez is hitting .158 in 101 at-bats with the Tribe. He was batting .235 in 136 at-bats when they promoted him from Columbus. He hit .304 between Akron and Columbus in 2008, so he has a history of success at the plate, but that's not been the case this season.
8.While I have been critical of Jhonny Peralta this season, I don't fault him for sometimes struggling at third. His 13 errors in 80 games is second-highest in the AL, only Brandon Inge (16) has more, but that's in 131 games. The problem was how the Tribe handled Peralta's switch from short to third. They should have put him there on Day 1 of spring training, instead of going through the Mark DeRosa experiment.
9.Here's where the Indians went wrong: A.) They knew Peralta's future was at third base. B.) They had him play third base in winter ball. C.) They knew he preferred shortstop, so they had him back at short in the spring and early in the season to accommodate DeRosa. D.) They also knew it would be considered embarrassing to Peralta to switch him to third during the season. E.) They made this much harder than necessary.
10.In his past two starts at Columbus, Hector Rondon has allowed 14 earned runs in 13 innings. He probably will not be promoted as the Indians think the 21-year-old might be running out of gas. He's 4-4 with a 4.05 ERA at Columbus. He was 7-5 with a 2.75 ERA at Akron and has thrown 139 innings this season.
| Copyright 2009 Plain Dealer Publishing Co. | |
|
Terms & Conditions Privacy
Copyright © 2009 LexisNexis, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. |
Add a comment

advertisement

